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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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1999 MLB Semifinals round - Series 796.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

Game 6: Atlanta 10 New York 9. In winning Game 6 and Series 796, Atlanta surmounted a situation in which it was down one run at home after 9 1/2 innings. In best-of-7 MLB Semis series through 1998 when the home team was in this situation, the home team game record was 1-18 (5.26%); in all best-of-7 MLB series through 1998 when the home team was in this situation, the home team game record was 3-85 (3.41%). Thus, Atlanta joins the 1985 Toronto Blue Jays (MLB Semis Game 2 vs. Kansas City) as the only teams in best-of-7 MLB Semis play to rebound from a one-run deficit after 9 1/2 innings to win the game.

In winning Series 796, Atlanta improves its all-time best-of-7 MLB Semis series record to 5-3, jumping from a tie for 25th to 21st in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Semis series victory percentage rankings. The Mets best-of-7 MLB Semis series record falls to 1-2. Atlanta improves its all-time best-of-7 MLB Semis game record to 26-23, while New York's record falls to 9-10. In terms of all best-of-7 format playoff games, Atlanta evens its all-time game record at 37-37 (50.00%). The Mets become the first MLB team to win both Games 4 and 5, after having fallen behind 3-0 to a superior regular season team.

Game 5: Atlanta 3 New York 4. This game was the first 15-inning game in best-of-7 MLB playoff history, and was the second longest (Game 6 of the 1986 MLB Semis featuring the Mets at Houston went 16 innings; the Mets won, 7-6). Through five games, the sum of the winning margins is now 2+1+1+1+1=6 . . . breaking the best-of-7 MLB Semis record for lowest sum of winning margins (8, set in 1990 by Pittsburgh-Cincinnati and tied in 1997 by Cleveland-Baltimore). In 6th games of MLB best-of-7 Semifinals action through 1998, Atlanta's record is 2-4 (33.33%) and New York's record is an MLB-best 2-0 (100.0%). Atlanta's best-of-7 Semifinals Game 6 record at home through 1998 is 1-3; the Mets' best-of-7 Semifinals Game 6 record on the road is an MLB-best 2-0.

Game 4: Atlanta 2 New York 3. Atlanta held a one-run lead after 7 1/2 innings. In the history of best-of-7 format MLB Semis through 1998, home teams down by one run after 7 1/2 innings had a game record of 5-13 (27.78%). Two of those five winners, though, were the New York Mets (Game 3 vs. Houston in 1986; Game 3 vs. Los Angeles in 1988). Through four games, the sum of the winning margins is now 2+1+1+1=5 . . . breaking the best-of-7 MLB Semis record for lowest sum of winning margins (6, set in 1992 by Oakland-Toronto and tied in 1996 by Cleveland-Baltimore). In 5th games of MLB best-of-7 Semifinals action through 1998, Atlanta's record is 2-4 (33.33%) and New York's record is 1-1 (50.00%). Atlanta's best-of-7 Semifinals Game 5 record on the road through 1998 is 2-2; the Mets' best-of-7 Semifinals Game 5 record at home is 1-1.

Game 3: Atlanta 1 New York 0. In over 670 best-of-7 format MLB playoff games, never before has there been a game in which a) the road team scored one run in the top of the first inning, and b) there was no scoring thereafter. In the best-of-7 format MLB Semis, never before has a combined four runs separated the winners from the losers through three games -- this four-run total is the smallest in MLB Semis best-of-7 format history. Only in the 1998 MLB Semis, with Atlanta down 0-3 (rather than up 3-0), had a trailing MLB team win as many as two games become succumbing. One note in favor of the Mets: This is the 25th anniversary of what WhoWins™ argues is the greatest best-of-7 comeback ever: The 1975 New York Islanders in the NHL Qtrs vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins. In that series, the Mets' neighbors were not only down 0-3 in the series, but also had not for even one second led in the series through three games. Only once before had any team come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a best-of-7 series (the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL Finals). Unlike the 1942 Leafs, however, the Islanders (as would the Mets) had to play Game 7 on the road; also unlike the 1942 Leafs, the Islanders (as have the Mets) had a regular-season record inferior to that of their opponents. While a series win is now improbable for the Mets, it is also not without precedent.

In 4th games of MLB best-of-7 Semifinals action through 1998, Atlanta's record is 4-3 (57.14%) and New York's record is 0-2 (0.00%) (better only than the 0-3 Boston Red Sox). Atlanta's best-of-7 Semifinals Game 4 record on the road through 1998 is 3-1; the Mets' best-of-7 Semifinals Game 4 record at home is 0-2 (tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for an MLB-worst).

Game 2: Atlanta 4 New York 3. In 116 best-of-7 MLB series (all rounds) through 1998, this series is the first in which a team won Game 1 by 2 runs and Game 2 by 1 run. In MLB best-of-7 Semis series, the only teams to rebound from a 2-0 deficit to win the series are the 1985 Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals. In 3rd games of MLB best-of-7 Semifinals action through 1998, Atlanta's record is 3-4 (42.86%) and New York's record is 2-0 (100.0%) (second only to the 3-0 St. Louis Cardinals). Atlanta's best-of-7 Semifinals Game 3 record on the road through 1998 is an MLB-NBA-NHL worst 0-4; the Mets' best-of-7 Semifinals Game 3 record at home is 2-0 (only the 3-0 Atlanta Braves are better).

Game 1: Atlanta 4 New York 2. Once before has a team won Game 1 of the MLB Semis at home by a 4-2 score: The 1996 Atlanta Braves did so against the St. Louis Cardinals. Those Braves then lost Games 2-4, but won Games 5-7 and the series. In 2nd games of MLB best-of-7 Semifinals action through 1998, Atlanta's record is 5-2 (71.43%) and New York's record is 1-1 (50.00%). Atlanta's best-of-7 Semifinals Game 2 record at home through 1998 is 2-2; the Mets' best-of-7 Semifinals Game 2 record on the road is 1-1.

Pre-series history. In MLB best-of-7 Semifinals (League Championship Series) action through 1998, the Atlanta Braves' series record is 4-3 (57.14%) and the New York Mets' series record is 1-1 (50.00%). Both teams are one game over .500 in this round: Atlanta's game record is 22-21 (51.16%) and New York's game record is 7-6 (53.85%).

Atlanta finished 6.5 games ahead of the New York Mets in the 1999 MLB regular season.

In previous MLB best-of-7 Semifinals action, the team with the 6.5-game lead has a series record of 0-1. That losing team? The 1988 New York Mets (100-60), which lost the National League Championship Series in seven games to the Los Angeles Dodgers (94-67). Ironically, then, the 1999 Mets will adopt as role models the team that defeated their predecessors of eleven years ago.

In previous best-of-7 action in all MLB playoff rounds, the team with the 6.5-game lead has a series record of 0-1.

In previous best-of-7 action in all NHL, NBA, and MLB playoff rounds, the team with the 6.5-game lead has a series record of 5-8 (38.46%). In addition to the 1988 National League Championship Series, the other twelve such series are from the NHL. Most recently, the 1997 Colorado NHL Avalanche (49-24-9) lost the NHL Semifinals (Western Conference Finals) to the Detroit Red Wings (38-26-18).