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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2001 MLB Semifinals round - Series 846.
Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Schedule and 2001 Results
Regular Season Records: Arizona 92-70, Atlanta 88-74
Game 1 on Tuesday, 16 October: Atlanta loses at Arizona, 2-runs-nil
Game 2 on Wednesday, 17 October: Atlanta wins at Arizona, 8-runs-1
Game 3 on Friday, 19 October: Arizona wins at Atlanta, 5-runs-1
Game 4 on Saturday, 20 October: Arizona wins at Atlanta, 11-runs-4
Game 5 on Sunday, 21 October: Arizona wins at Atlanta, 3-runs-2

OVERALL SUBSTANCE: Arizona wins, WLWWW
The Arizona Diamondbacks win best-of-7 series 846, WLWWW. They become the 55th MLB/NBA/NHL franchise to win a best-of-7 series WLWWW, the 12th MLB franchise to do so, and the fourth MLB franchise to do so in the best-of-7 Semis-round.

SERIES NOTES: Game 5 aftermath: Arizona defeats Atlanta 3-runs-2 in Atlanta, thereby winning the series, 4-games-1. Arizona thus becomes the latest MLB, NBA, or NHL team to win its first-ever franchise best-of-7 playoff series, and the first to do so since the 1997 Florida MLB Marlins. For the fourth game in five, the winning team never trailed in the game. For the fourth game in five, the visiting team won. Arizona becomes the 13th MLB, NBA, or NHL team ever to win Games 3 through 5 on the road in a best-of-7 series, and the first since the Los Angeles Lakers' three straight wins in Philadelphia in the 2001 NBA Finals (the New York MLB Yankees have achieved the feat five times, an MLB/NBA/NHL high). Atlanta's best-of-7 Game 5 Semis-round record thus falls to 2-6, and the Braves' best-of-7 Game 5 Semis-round home record falls to an MLB, NBA, or NHL-low 0-3 (the Seattle NBA Supersonics are next-to-last, at 0-2 in that situation). Game 4 aftermath: Arizona defeats Atlanta 11-runs-4 in Atlanta, thereby taking a 3-games-1 series lead. The 11 runs by Arizona were the most in a best-of-7 MLB Semis-round playoff Game 4 since the St. Louis Cardinals tallied 12 runs vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first year of best-of-7 format MLB Semis-round playoff action (1985). The win constituted a minor upset for Arizona, since the Diamondbacks trailed 2-runs-nil after two complete innings: In the 704 best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through 2000, road teams trailing by two runs after two complete innings had a game record of only 15-38 (.283). Game 4 was the first in series 846 in which the winning team actually trailed in the game. In MLB, NBA, and NHL best-of-7 play, there are three favorable precedents for an Atlanta series victory after an LWLL @ VVHH series start: best-of-7 series 201 (1968 World Series, Detroit MLB Tigers defeated St. Louis Cardinals); series 366 (1979 World Series, Pittsburgh MLB Pirates defeated Baltimore Orioles); series 479 (1987 NHL Conference Quarterfinals, New York NHL Islanders defeated Washington Capitals). [NOTE: The INDIVIDUAL STYLE RECORDS for Games 3-4 were actually for Atlanta @ home and Arizona on the road, but were mislabeled "Atlanta on road" and "Arizona @ home;" WhoWins™ regrets the error.] Game 3 aftermath: Arizona defeats Atlanta 5-runs-1 to take a 2-games-1 series lead. The Atlanta Braves brought a franchise best-of-7 Semis-round home game record of 3-0 into series 846 Game 3; a win would have improved that record to 4-0, tying the Braves with the Chicago NBA Bulls for the top MLB, NBA, or NHL Semis-round home game record in best-of-7 series play. Through five games of the 2001 American and National League Championship Series, a team has yet to lose an intra-game lead upon capturing one. For best-of-7 MLB Semis play, that streak of five games ties the two 1992 rounds of MLB best-of-7 Semis for the longest streak of games without a lead change. Arizona thus takes the series lead in its effort to become the first MLB team since the 1997 Florida Marlins to win its first-ever best-of-7 playoff series. Game 2 aftermath: Atlanta defeats Arizona 8-runs-1 in Game 2 of the 2001 National League Championship Series, tying that series 1-game-all. The Atlanta Braves now sport a 7-2 record in best-of-7 Semis-round Game 2s, and an NHL/NBA/MLB-best 4-0 record in best-of-7 Semis-round Game 2s played on the road (ahead of the Cleveland MLB Indians at 3-0, with six teams deadlocked at 1-0). Having won Game 2 by a 7-run margin after suffering a Game 1 shutout, Atlanta ties a 33-year-old MLB best-of-7 record for the largest Game 2 victory margin after losing Game 1 in a shutout: In the 1968 World Series (best-of-7 series 201), the Detroit Tigers were shutout 4-runs-nil in Game 1 by the St. Louis Cardinals, but also rebounded to win Game 2 8-runs-1 -- Detroit won series 201 in seven games. Atlanta has a history of large offensive output in second games of best-of-7 MLB Semis series: The Braves won Game 2 of the 1992 National League Championship Series 13-runs-5 over Pittsburgh, and won Game 2 of the 1993 N.L.C.S. 14-runs-3 over Philadelphia. If Atlanta wins Game 3 of this series, then the Braves will own a 4-0 record in best-of-7 Semis-round Game 3s played at home, thus tying that MLB/NBA/NHL-best mark now held by the Chicago NBA Bulls. Game 1 aftermath: Arizona defeats Atlanta 2-runs-nil to win its first-ever best-of-7 playoff game. The shutout is the 19th MLB best-of-7 Game 1 shutout victory; the previous eighteen victors posted a 7-11 series record. The game was the 22nd MLB best-of-7 series Game 1 to have a two-run margin of victory: In the previous 21 such games, the Game 1 winner posted a 13-8 series record. Of all MLB, NBA, and NHL teams, Atlanta is tied with the Cleveland MLB Indians for the best road Game 2 record in best-of-7 Semifinals series (3-0); Atlanta has a chance to improve that mark to 4-0 against Arizona on Wednesday 17 October. A favorable precedent for Atlanta remains that of the 1991 Atlanta Braves in best-of-7 series 599, in which Atlanta finished four regular-season games behind the opposing Pittsburgh MLB Pirates, lost Game 1 to Pittsburgh, but won the series in seven games. Pre-series: Arizona finished the 2001 MLB regular season four games ahead of Atlanta. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series history, when one team finished four games ahead of its opponent in MLB regular-season play, its series record vs. that weaker team was 4-3 (3-2 in MLB Semis play). In best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series history, when one team finished four games ahead of its opponent in regular-season play, its series record vs. that weaker team was 30-13 (14-8 in Semis-round play). Exactly ten years ago, in best-of-7 series 599, Atlanta played its first best-of-7 playoff series vs. Pittsburgh (behind whom Atlanta finished also by four games); Atlanta lost Game 1 but won that series in seven games. While best-of-7 series 846 is the first best-of-7 series for Arizona, it is the fourteenth for Atlanta and the ninth for them in the Semis (League Championship Series) round. In best-of-7 playoff series history, MLB franchises playing their first* best-of-7 series have posted a 15-17 series record (2-4 in the MLB Semis round) [*franchise identity based on specific name; as such, the New York MLB Giants and San Francisco MLB Giants are regarded as two separate entities].