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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2001 NHL Preliminary round - Series 824.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators

Schedule and 2001 Results
Regular Season Records: Ottawa 48-21-9-4=109pts, Toronto 37-29-11-5=90pts
Game 1 on Friday, 13 April: Toronto wins at Ottawa, 1-0 (OT)
Game 2 on Saturday, 14 April: Toronto wins at Ottawa, 3-0
Game 3 on Monday, 16 April: Ottawa loses at Toronto in OT, 3-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 18 April: Ottawa loses at Toronto, 3-1

OVERALL SUBSTANCE: Toronto sweeps Ottawa:
The four-game sweep by Toronto over Ottawa is the sixteenth in NHL Prelim round best-of-7 series, the 89th in NHL best-of-7 series (all rounds), and the 143rd in NHL, NBA, or MLB best-of-7 series.

TEAM RECORDS TIED/BROKEN:
In series 824, a best-of-7 NHL Prelim round series lasting four games, Ottawa scored no goals at home, three goals on the road, and Ottawa and Toronto combined for 13 goals in the series. For NHL best-of-7 Prelim round series lasting four games, Ottawa ties the record for fewest goals in these series (3, set by the New York Islanders in 1994), breaks the record for fewest goals at home in these series with 0 (the old mark was 1, set by the Los Angeles Kings in 2000), and Ottawa and Toronto break the record for fewest goals by both teams in these series with 13 (the old mark was 18, set in 1999 by Buffalo-Ottawa and Dallas-Edmonton, and tied in 2000 by New Jersey-Florida). For NHL best-of-7 series lasting four games (in any round), Ottawa ties the record for fewest goals at home in these series (0, set by Boston in the 1943 NHL Finals and matched by Chicago in their 1960 NHL Semis best-of-7 series), and Ottawa and Toronto tie the record for fewest goals by both teams in these series (13, set by Detroit-Montreal in the 1952 NHL Finals).

SERIES NOTES:Game 4: Toronto defeats Ottawa 3-goals-1 to sweep series 824; Ottawa staved off an "annihilation" by taking and holding a one-goal lead for 6:26 in the first period, for its only lead in the series; the sweep is only the third in Maple Leafs history, with the first two having come in the 1948 and 1949 NHL Finals; Ottawa suffers its second sweep, with the first having occurred in the best-of-7 1999 NHL Preliminary round vs. Buffalo; in best-of-7 NHL series in which one team had 19 more regular season points than the other, the series record of the better team (e.g., Ottawa) is now only 1-7; the Toronto upset sweep constitutes the third biggest upset sweep in NHL history (in 1993, Buffalo [38-36-10=86pts] swept Boston [51-26-7=109pts] despite spotting the Bruins 23 points in the regular season, and also in 1993, St. Louis [37-36-11=85pts] swept Chicago [47-25-12=106pts] despite spotting the Blackhawks 21 points) . . . Game 3: In defeating Ottawa 3-2 (OT) in Game 3, Toronto shut out the Senators for the first 56 minutes 51 seconds of the game; by holding Ottawa scoreless for the first 176:51 of this best-of-7 series, Toronto breaks the best-of-7 Prelim round record for longest shutout from the start of a best-of-7 series -- that record had been held by the New York Rangers, which shutout the New York Islanders for the first 155:28 of their 1994 Prelim round series (best-of-7 series 651); the record for all rounds is also held by Toronto in the 1945 Stanley Cup Finals (series 54), in which the Leafs shutout Detroit for the first 188:35 of that best-of-7 series (ironically, in that 1945 series, Detroit rebounded dramatically to win Games 4, 5, and 6, succumbing only in Game 7 to Toronto); Ottawa still has never led in this series . . . Game 2: Toronto shuts out Ottawa 3-0, and thus becomes only the seventh NHL team to record shutouts in Games 1 and 2 of best-of-7 NHL playoff series -- teams doing so have a 6-0 series record -- the Maple Leafs were the first NHL franchise to do so, in the 1945 Stanley Cup Finals; in their last six best-of-7 playoff series, Toronto is 0-6 in Game 3 when they've won the first two series games . . . Game 1: With the only goal of the game 70:49 into the game, Toronto defeats Ottawa 1-0 in Game 1 to take a 1-0 lead in their best-of-7 series; historically, Game 1 on the road in a best-of-7 series has not been kind to the Maple Leafs -- the franchise through 2000 had played 40 best-of-7 Game 1 games on the road (an NHL, NBA, and MLB high), and had lost 30 of them (also an NHL, NBA, and MLB high); now, though, history runs contrary to the Senators -- upon losing the first game of a best-of-7 series, Ottawa has an 0-4 series record . . . Pre-series: In best-of-7 NHL playoff history from 1939 through 2000, the team with the 19-point regular season advantage vs. a playoff opponent (such as what Ottawa holds over Toronto) had only a 1-6 series record in best-of-7 playoff rounds vs. that opponent; the single series victory occurred in the last such best-of-7 NHL series, when Philadelphia defeated 19-point underdog Pittsburgh in best-of-7 series 725 (in the 1997 NHL Prelim round) -- Ottawa thus has to hope that what applied in the 1997 Pennsylvania State Championship will also apply in the 2001 Ontario Provincial Championship, while Toronto has to hope that 6 out of 7 constitutes a significant trend.