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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2002 MLB Semifinals round - Series 870.
Anaheim Angels vs Minnesota Twins

Schedule and 2002 Results
Regular Season Records: Minnesota 94-67, Anaheim 99-63
Game 1 on Tuesday, 8 October: Anaheim loses at Minnesota, 2-runs-1
Game 2 on Wednesday, 9 October: Anaheim wins at Minnesota, 6-runs-3
Game 3 on Friday, 11 October: Minnesota loses at Anaheim, 2-runs-1
Game 4 on Saturday, 12 October: Minnesota loses at Anaheim, 7-runs-1
Game 5 on Sunday, 13 October: Minnesota loses at Anaheim, 13-runs-5

SERIES NOTES: Game 5 notes: The Anaheim Angels host and defeat the Minnesota Twins 13-runs-5 to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 870 (the 2002 American League Championship Series) 4-games-1. The series victory is the first best-of-7 series victory for the Anaheim Angels (which failed in one previous attempt as the California Angels in best-of-7 play, in 1986). The Minnesota Twins see their best-of-7 series win-loss records fall to 4-2 (all rounds) and to 2-1 (Semifinals round). The ten runs tallied by the Anaheim Angels in the bottom of the seventh inning were a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals round record for most runs scored in one inning, and tied the best-of-7 MLB record for such for all rounds, set by the Philadelphia Athletics in the bottom of the seventh inning of 1929 World Series Game 4, and tied by the Detroit Tigers in the top of the third inning of 1968 World Series Game 6. Anaheim thus becomes the first team to win an MLB Semifinals best-of-7 series LWWWW, the fifth team to win an MLB (all rounds) best-of-7 series LWWWW, and the 42 nd team to win an MLB, NBA, or NHL (all rounds) best-of-7 series LWWWW. The previous MLB team to follow this win order was the Baltimore Orioles in the 1983 World Series (and there have been 22 non-MLB LWWWW series between the 1983 World Series and the 2002 American League Championship Series).

Game 4 notes: Anaheim hosts and defeats Minnesota 7-runs-1 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 870 (the 2002 American League Championship Series). The game was scoreless until Anaheim tallied two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to take a 2-runs-nil lead after seven innings: The last MLB best-of-7 format game that was scoreless until the home team tallied twice in the bottom of the seventh was Game 3 of series 130 (the 1959 World Series), in which the cross-town Los Angeles Dodgers hosted the Chicago White Sox (Los Angeles won 3-runs-1). From 1985 through 2001, teams leading a best-of-7 MLB Semis-round playoff series 3-games-1 have a 16-3 series record and an eight-series winning streak. The Minnesota Twins have won Game 1 at home, lost Game 2 at home, and lost Games 3-4 on the road: From 1905 through 2001, two teams have won Game 1 at home, lost Game 2 at home, lost Games 3-4 on the road, and won the series -- the NBA Los Angeles Lakers in series 227 (the 1970 NBA Quarterfinals vs. the Phoenix Suns), and the MLB Atlanta Braves in series 721 (the 1996 MLB Semifinals vs. the St. Louis Cardinals). The California Angels' best-of-7 series record was 0-1 when up 3-games-1 in such a series.

Game 3 notes: Anaheim hosts and defeats Minnesota 2-runs-1 to take a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 870 (the 2002 American League Championship Series). Through the victory, the Anaheim/California Angels raise their collective record to 2-0 in Game 3s of best-of-7 playoff series, while the best-of-7 Game 3 mark falls to 1-5 for Minnesota. In MLB best-of-7 playoff action, the California Angels had a 1-0 record in Game 4s, while that for Minnesota is 2-3 overall but 2-0 in the MLB Semifinals (American League Championship Series). With 125 best-of-7 MLB playoff series having been played from 1905 through 2001, and with the 2002 National League Championship Series through only two games as of Friday 12 October 2002, series 870 becomes the first in MLB history in which the winner doubled up the loser in runs in each of the first three games of a best-of-7 series. From 1985 through 2001, teams leading an MLB Semis-round best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1 sport a 19-8 series record, and are now on a 5-series winning streak. From 1905 through 2001, teams leading an MLB best-of-7 playoff series (all rounds) 2-games-1 own a 68-32 series record, and are now on a 7-series winning streak.

Game 2 notes: Anaheim visits and defeats Minnesota 6-runs-3 to even best-of-7 series 870 at 1-game-all. The all-time best-of-7 MLB playoff home game record of the Minnesota Twins thus falls to 15-3 (.833), a tie on a percentage basis with that of the Arizona Diamondbacks (5-1, .833) for the best such record in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff home games. Anaheim led by six runs after 5.5 innings: From 1905 through 2001, when the road team led a best-of-7 MLB playoff game by six runs after 5.5 innings, its game record was 12-0. Minnesota has thus won Game 1 of series 870 by one run, and lost Game 2 by three runs. From 1905 through 2001, when an MLB team won Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series by one run but lost Game 2 by three runs, its series record was only 2-5 . . . but the latter of those two wins occurred in best-of-7 series 598 (the 1991 American League Championship Series), by the Minnesota Twins. When tied 1-game-all in an MLB best-of-7 playoff series, the California Angels (the predecessor franchise to the current Anaheim Angels) had a series record of 0-1, while the Minnesota Twins in the same situation have a 1-0 series record. In this sixth best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Minnesota Twins, the Twins are WL after two games for only the second series (having been WW after two games in the other four such series).

Game 1 notes: Minnesota defeats Anaheim 2-runs-1 to take a 1-game-nil series lead. The win improves the Minnesota Twins' home record in best-of-7 playoff games to an MLB/NBA/NHL-best 15-2 (.882), and improves the Twins' best-of-7 playoff Game 1 record to an MLB/NBA/NHL-best 6-0. From 1905 through 2001, when the home team wins Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series by a 2-runs-1 tally, its series record is 2-3 (.400) and its Game 2 record is 3-2 (.600). From 1905 through 2001, when the home team wins Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series by a one-run margin, its series record is 16-8 (.667) and its Game 2 record is 11-13 (.458). From 1905 through 2001, when either the home or road team wins Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series by a one-run margin, its series record is 29-17 (.630) and its Game 2 record is 19-27 (.413). In MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 598 -- the 1991 American League Championship Series -- the MLB Minnesota Twins also won Game 1 by one run at home: Those 1991 Twins went on to lose series 598 Game 2 to the Toronto Blue Jays, win the next three games and series 598 over Toronto, and win series 600 (the 1991 World Series vs. the Atlanta Braves). Of the eleven best-of-7 MLB Semis-round series lost by teams that won Game 1, the Game 2 record of those teams is 2-9 . . . and 0-9 in the last nine such series -- an a posteriori losing streak started in best-of-7 series 473 by, ironically, the California Angels in the 1986 American League Championship Series vs. the Boston Red Sox.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002 regular season, Anaheim finished 4.5 games ahead of Minnesota, but Minnesota holds a Division title while Anaheim holds only a wild-card berth, so Minnesota wins home-field advantage. Since the MLB Semis round went to a best-of-7 format for the 1985 playoffs, an inferior regular-season team played Game 1 at home thirteen times (Series 870 Game 1 in Minnesota will mark the fourteenth such occasion). On those thirteen previous occasions, the inferior regular-season team playing Game 1 at home posted a 5-8 Game 1 record and a 6-7 series record. When playing a superior regular-season opponent at home in an MLB best-of-7 Semis-round Game 1, the Minnesota Twins have a 1-0 Game 1 and series record (in series 498, the 85-77 Twins topped the 98-64 Detroit Tigers to win the 1987 American League Championship Series). From 1939 through the 2002 NHL and NBA playoffs, when MLB best-of-7 opponents differed by 4.5 regular-season games, the superior regular-season team (e.g., Anaheim) posted an 0-2 Game 1 record and a 1-1 series record -- hardly of statistical significance. The Game 1 record for the Minnesota Twins in best-of-7 playoff action is 5-0, an MLB/NBA/NHL best; the California Angels won their only best-of-7 Game 1, in 1986 vs. the Boston Red Sox. At 14-2 (.875), the Minnesota Twins' home game record in best-of-7 playoff action is also an MLB/NBA/NHL best, just ahead of the MLB Arizona Diamondbacks, who are 5-1 (.833) at home in best-of-7 play.