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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2002 NHL Preliminary round - Series 851.
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Schedule and 2002 Results
Regular Season Records: Toronto 43-25-10-4=100pts, New York Islanders 42-28-8-4=96pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 18 April: N.Y. Islanders lose at Toronto, 3-goals-1
Game 2 on Saturday, 20 April: N.Y. Islanders lose at Toronto, 2-goals-nil
Game 3 on Tuesday, 23 April: Toronto loses at N.Y. Islanders, 6-goals-1
Game 4 on Wednesday, 24 April: Toronto loses at N.Y. Islanders, 4-goals-3
Game 5 on Friday, 26 April: N.Y. Islanders lose at Toronto, 6-goals-3
Game 6 on Sunday, 28 April: Toronto loses at N.Y. Islanders, 5-goals-3
Game 7 on Tuesday, 30 April: N.Y. Islanders lose at Toronto, 4-goals-2

SERIES NOTES: Post Game 7 and series assessment: By winning Game 7 of this series 4-goals-2, Toronto improves its best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 7 record to 10-8 (5-1 at home), while that for the Islanders falls to 3-4 (3-3 on the road). Toronto now sports a 33-35 best-of-7 series record (7-4 in the Preliminary round), while that for the Islanders is 21-13 (2-4 in the Preliminary). Toronto thus becomes the second team in a best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round, the seventh team in any best-of-7 NHL playoff round, and the 22th team overall to win a series WWLLWLW, and the first NHL team to do so since the Montreal Canadiens achieved the feat in the best-of-7 Preliminary round of 1992. Of the 855 MLB, NBA, and NHL best-of-7 playoff series through the 2002 NHL Preliminary round, this series is only the 20th in which the home team won all seven games in the 2-2-1-1-1 site format. The previous series in which that occurred was series 767, a 1998 NBA Semis round series won by the Chicago Bulls over the Indiana Pacers. The previous NHL series in which that occurred was series 601, a 1992 Preliminary round series won by the Montreal Canadiens over the Hartford Whalers. Of these 20 series in which the home team won all seven games, five of these series were won by the Los Angeles Lakers, while five of them were lost by Chicago teams (the NBA Bulls and the NHL Blackhawks). Post Game 6 assessment: By winning Game 6, the Islanders improve their best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 6 record to 3-1 (3-0 at home, tying for an NHL best), while that of Toronto falls to 5-4 (3-2 on the road). This series is the 27th best-of-7 series in which the home team won each of the first six games in a 2-2-1-1 site-format series; the last was series 767, in which the Chicago Bulls defeated the Indiana Pacers in their 1998 NBA Semis-round series. Tied 3-games-all, the Toronto Maple Leafs series record is 9-8, while the New York Islanders series record is 3-3. Post Game 5 assessment: Toronto's Game 5 victory at home gives the Leafs an 8-2 record in best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 5 action. With the Game 5 win by St. Louis the day before, the Blues and Leafs now lead the NHL in best-of-7 format Prelim-round Game 5 wins with eight each. With Colorado's Game 5 loss to Los Angeles the day before, Toronto's .800 winning fraction places the Leafs at the top of the best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 5 table, in terms of winning percentage. Toronto's best-of-7 Prelim-round home Game 5 record improves to 5-0 ... another NHL best. The Islanders' best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 5 record falls to 1-4 (1-3 on the road). When leading a best-of-7 series 3-games-2, Toronto's series record is 17-5; when trailing a best-of-7 series 3-games-2, New York's series record is 3-5. Post Game 4 assessment: With the Game 4 victory, the Islanders' best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 4 record improves to 3-3 (2-3 at home). With the Game 4 loss, Toronto's best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 4 record falls to 4-7 (0-5 on the road -- an NHL worst). Upon opening a best-of-7 playoff series LLWW, the Islanders have a 2-0 series record (series 310, 1976 Qtrs; series 431, 1984 Semis). When the Leafs have begun a best-of-7 series WWLL, their series record is 4-2, with the last victory coming in series 800 (2000 Preliminary round, vs. Ottawa). Post Game 3 assessment: The Islanders end a seven-game best-of-7 format losing streak with a 6-goals-1 outburst against Toronto. The six goals marked the most offense from the Islanders in a best-of-7 contest since their 7-goal performance in Game 6 of their 1993 NHL Quarterfinals series vs. Pittsburgh. New York is now 3-3 (3-2 at home) in Prelim-round Game 4 action in best-of-7 series, while Toronto falls to 3-8 (1-4 on the road): Those 8 Toronto losses in best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 4 ties the Washington Capitals for the most such losses in the NHL. When leading a best-of-7 series 2-games-1, Toronto has a 16-7 series record; when trailing that way, the Islanders are 4-6. Post Game 2 assessment: Entering Game 2, Toronto had a best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 2 record of 7-3 (4-0 at home), while the Islanders had a best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 2 record of 2-3 (2-2 on the road). Thus, the Maple Leafs' win boosts their home best-of-7 Prelim-round Game 2 record to 5-0, tying them with the Montreal Canadiens for the best such record in the NHL. The Islanders' losing streak in best-of-7 playoff series games has now reached seven games. The last best-of-7 series in which Toronto took a 2-games-nil lead but lost was its 1995 Prelim-round series vs. Chicago. The last best-of-7 series in which the Islanders fell behind 2-games-nil but won was its 1984 Semis-round series vs. Montreal. Post Game 1 assessment: In the 441 best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2001, inclusive, teams winning Game 1 by a two-goal margin -- such as Toronto -- have posted a 79-38 (.675) series record. Ironically, the first NHL team to win Game 1 by two goals but lose the series was the Toronto Maple Leafs, in their 1944 NHL Semifinals vs. the Montreal Canadiens. But then, the first NHL team to win Game 1 by two goals and win the series was the Toronto Maple Leafs, in their 1942 NHL Semifinals vs. the New York Rangers. With their win, Toronto improves its best-of-7 Game 1 Preliminary-round record to 6-5 (3-2 at home), while that of the Islanders falls to 1-5 (0-5 on the road). NYI's five road losses ties them with Chicago for the most road Prelim-round Game 1 losses in best-of-7 series, and given Chicago's victory tonight over St. Louis in Game 1 of their series, the Islanders are now at the bottom of that road Game 1 table with their 0-5 record (Chicago's is now 1-5). Though the Islanders have now lost 9 of their last 10 best-of-7 playoff games, at least they did manage to tally a goal on the road (something they failed to do against the eventual Stanley Cup-champion New York Rangers in Prelim-round play in 1994, the Islanders' last best-of-7 series appearance prior to this series). Pre-series assessment: In the 2001-02 regular season, Toronto finished with four more points than the Islanders. From 1939 through 2001, when NHL best-of-7 opponents were separated by 4 regular-season points, the better regular-season team (home-ice advantage notwithstanding) has gone on to post a 4-7 (.364) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent.