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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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NBA: all points for/against
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2002 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 857.
Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Schedule and 2002 Results
Regular Season Records: Toronto 43-25-10-4=100pts, Ottawa 39-27-9-7=94pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 2 May: Ott. wins at Tor., 5-goals-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 4 May: Ott. loses at Tor., 3-goals-2 (3OT)
Game 3 on Monday, 6 May: Tor. loses at Ott., 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 8 May: Tor. wins at Ott., 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Friday, 10 May: Ott. wins at Tor., 4-goals-2
Game 6 on Sunday, 12 May: Tor. wins at Ott., 4-goals-3
Game 7 on Tuesday, 14 May: Ott. loses at Tor., 3-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES: Post Game 7 assessment: Toronto hosts and defeats Ottawa 3-goals-nil to win their series 4-games-3, thereby eliminating Ottawa from the NHL playoffs for the third consecutive year. Toronto's Qtrs-round Game 7 record improves to 4-4 (3-0 at home), while Ottawa's Qtrs-round Game 7 record falls to 0-1 (0-1 on the road). The four Qtrs-round Game 7 losses by Toronto are an NBA/NHL high, but that number grew no worse vs. Ottawa in best-of-7 series 857. Toronto now owns a 34-35 best-of-7 series record, including a 5-12 mark in the NHL Quarterfinals. Ottawa now owns a 2-6 best-of-7 series record, including an 0-2 mark in the NHL Qtrs. Toronto's LWLWLWW series victory was the third with that win-order in the NHL Quarterfinals, the fifth in the NHL (all rounds), and the 13th in the MLB/NBA/NHL (all rounds). The Toronto Maple Leafs have won more series LWLWLWW (three, now) than any other MLB, NBA, or NHL franchise; the Leafs' previous two LWLWLWW victories occurred in best-of-7 series 159 (a 1964 Semis win over Montreal) and 661 (a 1994 Qtrs win over San Jose). In the NBA, NHL, and MLB, the first LWLWLWW win ever was posted by the Senators ... the old MLB Washington Senators, in the 1924 World Series. Post Game 6 assessment: Toronto visits and defeats Ottawa 4-goals-3 to force a Game 7 in the 2002 Battle of Ontario. In best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 6 play, Toronto is now 6-6 (2-2 on the road), while Ottawa is now 0-1 (0-1 at home). In Game 7s, Toronto has a 10-8 record, while Ottawa has a 0-1 record. Post Game 5 assessment: Ottawa visits and defeats Toronto 4-goals-2 to take a 3-games-2 series lead. Ottawa now has a best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 5 record of 1-1 (1-1 on the road). Toronto now has a best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 5 record of 3-10 (2-2 on home ice). When Ottawa leads a best-of-7 series 3-games-2, it has a 1-1 series record; when Toronto trails a best-of-7 series 3-games-2, it has a 5-11 series record. Post Game 4 assessment: Toronto defeats Ottawa 2-goals-1 to tie the all-Ontario series at 2-games-all. The win improves the Toronto best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 4 record to 9-8 (5-0 on the road), and drops the Ottawa best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 4 record to 0-2 (0-2 at home). Toronto's 5-0 best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 4 road record ties that of the Colorado Avalanche for the best NBA/NHL record in that category. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 series, Toronto has an 18-13 series record, while Ottawa has an 0-2 series record. Post Game 3 assessment: Ottawa tops Toronto 3-goals-2 to take a 2-games-1 series lead, and thereby improves its best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 3 record to 2-0 (with both wins coming at home; the 2-0 record ties Ottawa with the NBA Orlando Magic for the best NBA/NHL best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 3 record). The Toronto best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 3 record falls to 4-13 (0-5 on the road). Those 13 losses are an NBA/NHL high in this category; the 0-5 road record in this category is an NBA/NHL worst. When leading a best-of-7 series 2-games-1, the Ottawa series record is 2-0; when trailing a best-of-7 series 2-games-1, the Toronto series record is 9-17. Post Game 2 assessment: With its third goal 104:30 into the game (4:30 into the third overtime period), Toronto defeats Ottawa 3-goals-2 to tie their best-of-7 series at 1-game-all. With 104:29 elapsed in tied best-of-7 format NHL playoff games, the record of the home team prior to Saturday 04 May 2002 was only 5-13 (.278), so the Maple Leaf victory on Toronto ice constitutes something of a minor upset (after the game had gone deep into overtime). The Toronto record in best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 2 play is now 8-9 (3-2 at home), while that for Ottawa is now 0-2 (both losses occurring on the road). When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 series, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 14-17 series record, while that for Ottawa is 2-1. Post Game 1 assessment: Ottawa's 5-goals-nil shutout of Toronto was the most lopsided NHL best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 1 shutout since best-of-7 series 683 (Detroit waylaid San Jose 6-goals-nil in 1995). It is the most lopsided NHL best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 1 shutout by the road team ever (three teams had achieved 3-goals-nil road best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 1 shutouts before). Ottawa improves its best-of-7 Qtrs-round Game 1 record to 1-1 (1-1 on the road), while that for Toronto falls to 5-12 (2-3 on home ice). In series 824 (the 2001 Prelim-round matchup between Ottawa and Toronto), Ottawa scored a total of three goals while being swept; tonight, their offensive output exceeded that for all of series 824. Also in series 824, Ottawa did not score its first goal of the series until 56 minutes 51 seconds into Game 3; tonight, the Senators "voted" early and often. When leading a best-of-7 series 1-game-nil, Ottawa has a 1-0 series record (winning series 748 in the 1998 Preliminary round vs. New Jersey); when trailing 1-game-nil, Toronto has a 14-24 (.368) series record. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds) from 1939 through the 2002 Preliminary round, teams winning Game 1 by shutout scores of 5-goals-nil or greater have a 13-4 series record, including 13 wins in the last 14 such series, and a current eight-series winning streak. Pre-series assessment: In the 2001-02 regular season, Toronto finished with 6 more regular-season points than Ottawa. From 1939 through the 2002 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL best-of-7 opponents were separated by 6 regular-season points, the team with the better regular-season record has gone on to post a 14-8 (.636) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. The last NHL team to trail a best-of-7 series opponent by six regular-season points but win the series was the Buffalo Sabres, in series 785 (a 1999 Semifinals series vs. Toronto); as such, the 1999 Sabres set a favorable underdog precedent for the 2002 Senators.