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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
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Game 1 played at home
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2003 NHL Preliminary round - Series 877.
Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Dallas 46-17-15-4=111pts, Edmonton 36-26-11-9=92pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 9 Apr: Edmonton wins at Dallas, 2-goals-1
Game 2 on Friday, 11 Apr: Edmonton loses at Dallas, 6-goals-1
Game 3 on Sunday, 13 Apr: Dallas loses at Edmonton, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Tuesday, 15 Apr: Dallas wins at Edmonton, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Thursday, 17 Apr: Edmonton loses at Dallas, 5-goals-2
Game 6 on Saturday, 19 Apr: Dallas wins at Edmonton, 3-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: On Alberta ice, the Dallas Stars defeated the Edmonton Oilers 3-goals-2, thereby winning best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 877, 4-games-2. The win order for Dallas was LWLWWW: Series 877 is the fifth in best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round play, the eleventh in best-of-7 NHL playoff action (all rounds), and the 21st in best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB playoff action (all rounds) to follow this win order. With the Dallas series victory, the series record of NHL teams that led a best-of-7 playoff opponent by 19 regular-season points improves to 2-8.

After Game 5: Series 877 returned to Dallas for Game 5, and on home ice the Dallas Stars defeated the Edmonton Oilers 5-goals-2 to take a 3-games-2 lead in their best-of-7 series. When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 5-0; when trailing 3-games-2, the Edmonton Oilers have a 2-3 series record. Teams that begin an MLB, NBA, or NHL best-of-7 playoff series (all rounds) WLWLL @ VVHHV have a 1-18 series record: The sole winner -- the NHL Florida Panthers in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 710. The Panthers defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins in seven games to win their 1996 NHL Semifinals series. The 1996 Florida Panthers thus set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Edmonton Oilers.

After Game 4: The Dallas Stars defeated the Edmonton Oilers 3-goals-1 in Edmonton to tie series 877 at 2-games-all. In best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round series since 1987, when a team such as the Edmonton Oilers posts a WLWL string of results in its first four games, its series record is 8-5 -- such teams are on an eight-series winning streak (after beginning best-of-7 Preliminary round play with a five-series losing streak). When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 playoff series, the Dallas Stars have a 6-1 series record and a six-series winning streak, while the Edmonton Oilers have a 4-2 series record.

After Game 3: With best-of-7 series 877 now in Edmonton, the Edmonton Oilers came from behind at home to defeat the Dallas Stars 3-goals-2, to take a 2-games-1 lead in series 877. In best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round playoff competition, when a team opens the series WLW (as Edmonton has), its series record is 16-12 (but is a sterling 11-0 in the last eleven such series). In best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round playoff competition, when a team opens the series WLW @ VVH (as Edmonton has), its series record is 9-8 (but is 5-0 in the last five such series). When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 15-1; when leading such a series WLW, the Oilers have a series record of 5-1. When trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 1-4; when trailing LWL, that series record is 1-2.

After Game 2: The Dallas Stars defeated the Edmonton Oilers in Dallas by a 6-goals-1 tally to tie best-of-7 series 877 at 1-game-all. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team drops Game 1 at home by any margin but wins Game 2 at home by five goals, its series record is a statistically insignificant 3-5. When tied at 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Dallas Stars own a 5-3 series record, while that for the Edmonton Oilers is 13-5.

After Game 1: The Edmonton Oilers won Game 1 of MLB/NHL/NBA best-of-7 series 877 in Dallas, defeating the Dallas Stars 2-goals-1. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team wins Game 1 by a 2-goals-1 score, its series record has been 36-16 (.692). When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Edmonton Oilers have a franchise series record of 20-1; when trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Stars have a franchise series record of 3-5.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, Dallas finished 19 points ahead of Edmonton. From 1939 through 2002, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 19 regular-season points, it has gone on to post a 1-8 (.111) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 877 is the 18th best-of-7 playoff series for Dallas and the 38th for Edmonton. In best-of-7 playoff series, Dallas has a 11-6 series record, a 5-2 Prelim-round series record, and a 9-8 Game 1 record, while Edmonton has a 26-11 record, a 5-6 Prelim-round record, and a 21-16 Game 1 record. Series 877 is the sixth best-of-7 meeting between Edmonton and Dallas; Dallas leads 4-1.