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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2003 NHL Preliminary round - Series 879.
Minnesota Wild vs Colorado Avalanche

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Colorado 42-19-13-8=105pts, Minnesota 42-29-10-1=95pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 10 Apr: Minnesota wins at Colorado, 4-goals-2
Game 2 on Saturday, 12 Apr: Minnesota loses at Colorado, 3-goals-2
Game 3 on Monday, 14 Apr: Colorado wins at Minnesota, 3-goals-nil
Game 4 on Wednesday, 16 Apr: Colorado wins at Minnesota, 3-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 19 Apr: Minnesota wins at Colorado, 3-goals-2
Game 6 on Monday, 21 Apr: Colorado loses at Minnesota, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 7 on Tuesday, 22 Apr: Minnesota wins at Colorado, 3-goals-2 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: On road ice in Game 7 of their first-ever NHL playoff series, the Minnesota Wild defeated the Colorado Avalanche 3-goals-2 in overtime to secure a 4-games-3 win in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 879. Minnesota tied the game at 2-goals-all at 15:32 into the third period: In best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2002, when the road team trailed by one goal 15:31 into the third period, its game record was 25-402 (.059). The win order for the Minnesota Wild was WLLLWWW: Minnesota becomes the fourth team to achieve this win order in best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round playoff series, the fifth team to do so in best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), and the eighth team to do so in best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series (all rounds). By surmounting 3-games-1 deficits to win best-of-7 playoff series, the Minnesota Wild and the Vancouver Canucks do so for the 31st and 32nd times in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff history, for the 17th and 18th times in NHL best-of-7 playoff history, and for the 13th and 14th times in NHL Preliminary-round best-of-7 playoff history. In 1992, three NHL teams (the Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, and Vancouver Canucks) surmounted 3-games-1 deficits to win best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round playoff series.

After Game 6: Despite having lost a 2-goals-nil lead in regulation, the Minnesota Wild scored in the first overtime in Minnesota to defeat the Colorado Avalanche 3-goals-2, thereby tying best-of-7 series 879 at 3-games-all. The Colorado Avalanche thus join the NHL Philadelphia Flyers, the NHL Edmonton Oilers, and the MLB St. Louis Cardinals as the teams which have played the most best-of-7 series (four each) in which they 1) took a 3-games-1 series lead, and 2) saw the series last the full seven games. When the Colorado Avalanche are tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, their series record is 4-4. The Minnesota Wild registered their first home playoff game victory ever with their overtime win in Game 6. Favorable precedent for Minnesota: The last team to go WLLLWW @ VVHHVH through six games and win Game 7 was the New Jersey Devils in best-of-7 series 810 (a 2000 NHL Semifinals series vs. the Philadelphia Flyers). Favorable precedent for Colorado: The last team to go WLLLWW @ VVHHVH through six games and lose Game 7 was the Los Angeles Kings in best-of-7 series 833 (a 2001 NHL Quarterfinals series vs. ... the Colorado Avalanche). Series 879 is the first NHL (or MLB, for that matter) best-of-7 playoff series in which the winning team tallied a trio of goals in each of Games 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.

After Game 5: Series 879 returned to the Rocky Mountains for Game 5, but victory would not go to the home team in this game as the Minnesota Wild defeated the Colorado Avalanche 3-goals-2 to narrow the Avalanche's series lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the series record of the Avalanche is 8-3. Series 879 is only the second in NHL best-of-7 playoff history in which the winning team scored three goals in each of Games 2, 3, 4, and 5. The first: MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 862 (the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals), in which the Detroit Red Wings won Games 2-5 by scores of 3-goals-1, 3-goals-2, 3-goals-nil, and 3-goals-1.

After Game 4: The Colorado Avalanche defeated the Minnesota Wild 3-goals-1 to take a 3-games-1 lead in series 879 in Minnesota. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Colorado Avalanche have a 7-1 series record. The last NHL team to trail WLLL @ VVHH but win the series was the New Jersey Devils in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 810 (in the 2000 NHL Semifinals vs. the Philadelphia Flyers; the Devils would go on to win the Stanley Cup that year); the last NHL team to do so in the Preliminary round was the St. Louis Blues in series 780 in 1999 vs. the Phoenix Coyotes. These precedents are favorable not only to the Minnesota Wild, but also to the New York Islanders (whose best-of-7 series vs. the Ottawa Senators is in perfect alignment with this one: LWWW @ HHVV).

After Game 3: With series 879 having moved to the Twin Cities for Games 3 and 4, the Colorado Avalanche shut out the Minnesota Wild 3-goals-nil, thereby taking a 2-games-1 series lead. This series is in perfect alignment with series 873 (Ottawa vs. the New York Islanders in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals): LWW @ HHV. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Colorado Avalanche have a 10-2 series record.

After Game 2: The Colorado Avalanche won Game 2 of series 879 by a 3-goals-2 score, thus handing the Minnesota Wild their first playoff game loss ever and tying series 879 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Colorado Avalanche own a 5-5 series record (and a 3-2 series record when the Avalanche start a best-of-7 series with a Game 1 loss and a Game 2 win). Note that the Colorado Avalanche best-of-7 series records through 2002 are 4-2 when starting a series with a Game 1 loss, 3-2 when LW after the first two games, and 1-0 when LL after the first two games -- while a Game 2 loss would have set the Avalanche on a historical path to series victory, only a fool ignorant of small sample size limitations would have advocated Colorado's losing Game 2. With such a small sample size, the counterintuitive result seems the better one; the larger sample sizes straighten out that misconception. Once before in NHL best-of-7 playoff history did a team win Game 1 by a 4-goals-2 tally but lose Game 2 by a 3-goals-2 score: In best-of-7 series 44, the Detroit Red Wings did so in their 1943 NHL Semifinals series vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs -- Detroit won that series in six games, so the Detroit Red Wings of 1943 have set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Minnesota Wild.

After Game 1: The Minnesota Wild won Game 1 of MLB/NHL/NBA best-of-7 series 879 over the Colorado Avalanche, 4-goals-2. In the entire history of NHL best-of-7 format playoff series (1939-2002), when a team wins Game 1 by a 4-goals-2 score, its series record has been 21-8 (.724). The Minnesota Wild have won their first-ever best-of-7 NHL playoff game; when trailing a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Colorado Avalanche have a franchise series record of 4-2.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, Colorado finished 10 points ahead of Minnesota. From 1939 through 2002, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 10 regular-season points, it has gone on to post an 8-5 (.615) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 879 is the 22nd best-of-7 playoff series for Colorado and the 1st for Minnesota. In best-of-7 playoff series, Colorado has a 16-5 series record, a 6-1 Prelim-round series record, and a 15-6 Game 1 record.