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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2003 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 883.
Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs Dallas Stars

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Dallas 46-17-15-4=111pts, Anaheim 40-27-9-6=95pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 24 Apr: Anaheim wins at Dallas, 4-goals-3 (5OT)
Game 2 on Saturday, 26 Apr: Anaheim wins at Dallas, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 3 on Monday, 28 Apr: Dallas wins at Anaheim, 2-goals-1
Game 4 on Wednesday, 30 Apr: Dallas loses at Anaheim, 1-goal-nil
Game 5 on Saturday, 03 May: Anaheim loses at Dallas, 4-goals-1
Game 6 on Monday, 05 May: Dallas loses at Anaheim, 4-goals-3

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: Returning to home ice for Game 6, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the Dallas Stars 4-goals-3 to win series 883, 4-games-2. In best-of-7 series, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks now have a series record of 3-2, while that for the Dallas Stars falls to 12-7. The win order for series 883 was WWLWLW: Series 883 is the third NHL Quarterfinals series, the 13th NHL series, and the 28th MLB/NBA/NHL series to show that particular win order.

After Game 5: The Dallas Stars defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks on Dallas ice, 4-goals-1, to narrow Anaheim's best-of-7 series 883 lead to 3-games-2. The Anaheim Mighty Ducks are leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2 for the first time. When trailing an NHL best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Stars have a 1-3 series record.

After Game 4: With a goal in the final two minutes of regulation, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks won 1-goal-nil on home ice against the Dallas Stars, thereby taking a 3-games-1 series 883 lead. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Quarterfinals-round competition, teams with a win order and site order of WWLW @ VVHH (such as Anaheim in this series) have a series record of 2-1; the sole loss occurred in best-of-7 series 486, in which the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs in their 1987 NHL Quarterfinals-round series. The 1987 Detroit Red Wings thus set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Dallas Stars. The Anaheim Mighty Ducks are leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1 for the first time; when trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Dallas Stars have an 0-4 series record.

After Game 3: The Dallas Stars defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks in Anaheim, 2-goals-1, to cut the Anaheim series lead to 2-games-1. The loss was the first in seven 2003 NHL playoff games for Anaheim; the home team has yet to win a game in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 883. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 1-0; when trailing 2-games-1, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 2-4 (one of those two wins occurred in the previous round).

After Game 2: Extending their 2003 NHL playoffs winning streak to six consecutive games with no losses, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks tied the Dallas Stars 2-goals-all with 1:09 remaining in regulation play, then defeated the Dallas Stars 3-goals-2 in overtime to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 883 on Dallas ice. In best-of-7 NHL playoff action from 1947 through 2002, road teams such as Anaheim had a game record of only 11-392 (.027) when trailing by one goal with 1:10 left to play in regulation. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 3-0; when trailing 2-games-nil, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 0-3.

After Game 1: Forty-eight seconds into quintuple overtime on Dallas ice, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks scored to defeat the Dallas Stars 4-goals-3 and to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 883. This game was the second-longest game in best-of-7 NHL playoff history (although other NHL playoff games not played within the best-of-7 format have also been longer); the longest game in best-of-7 NHL playoff history was Game 4 of series 806, which the Philadelphia Flyers won 12:01 into the fifth overtime in Pittsburgh in their 2000 NHL Quarterfinals series. Once again, the road team wins an NHL playoff game that went into multiple overtimes. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2002, nine times has a team won Game 1 in double overtime or beyond: The series record for those marathon Game 1 winners is 6-3. When leading a best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a series record of 2-0; when trailing 1-game-nil, the Dallas Stars have a series record of 4-5.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, the Dallas Stars finished 16 points ahead of the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. From 1939 through the 2003 NHL Preliminary round, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 16 regular-season points, it has gone on to post a 9-0 (1.000) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 883 is the first best-of-7 series between Dallas and Anaheim. The Dallas Stars have a best-of-7 series record of 12-6 and a Game 1 record of 9-9 (all rounds), and have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 1 record of 3-2 (NHL Quarterfinals only). The Anaheim Mighty Ducks have a best-of-7 series record of 2-2 and a Game 1 record of 2-2 (all rounds), and have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 1 record of 0-1 (NHL Quarterfinals only).