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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2003 NHL Semifinals round - Series 885.
New Jersey Devils vs Ottawa Senators

Schedule and 2003 Results
Regular Season Records: Ottawa 52-21-8-1=113pts, New Jersey 46-20-10-6=108pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 10 May: New Jersey loses at Ottawa, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 2 on Tuesday, 13 May: New Jersey wins at Ottawa, 4-goals-1
Game 3 on Thursday, 15 May: Ottawa loses at New Jersey, 1-goal-nil
Game 4 on Saturday, 17 May: Ottawa loses at New Jersey, 5-goals-2
Game 5 on Monday, 19 May: New Jersey loses at Ottawa, 3-goals-1
Game 6 on Wednesday, 21 May: Ottawa wins at New Jersey, 2-goals-1 (OT)
Game 7 on Friday, 23 May: New Jersey wins at Ottawa, 3-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: Winning in Ottawa to avoid a series defeat after holding a 3-games-1 lead, the New Jersey Devils defeated the Ottawa Senators 3-goals-2 to win MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 885, 4-games-3. The New Jersey Devils now have a 19-11 series record in best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), and a 4-2 series record in best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series. The Ottawa Senators now have a 4-7 series record in best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), and an 0-1 series record in best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series. The win order for this series was LWWWLLW: Series 885 is the first NHL Semifinals series, the third MLB/NBA/NHL Semifinals series, the sixth NHL playoff series (all rounds), and the 11th MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to follow this win order. The last series to follow the LWWWLLW win order was MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 833: The Colorado Avalanche defeated the Los Angeles Kings through this win order in the 2001 NHL Quarterfinals; ironically, the Avalanche eventually defeated the New Jersey Devils to win the Stanley Cup in 2001.

After Game 6: Scoring the winning goal 15:51 into the first overtime period, the Ottawa Senators visited and defeated the New Jersey Devils 2-goals-1 to force MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 885 to a Game 7. As of this 22 May 2003 writing, 897 MLB, NBA, and NHL best-of-7 playoff series have been completed; in them, the home team Game 7 record is 162-74 (.686) for all rounds of MLB, NBA, and NHL series, 69-40 (.633) for all rounds of NHL series alone, and 18-7 (.720) for the Semifinals round of NHL series. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the New Jersey Devils hold a 4-6 series record, while that for the Ottawa Senators is 0-2. In best-of-7 NHL Semifinals play from 1939 through 2002, only once before has there been a win order of WLLLWW through six games: In MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 810, the New Jersey Devils posted this win order against the Philadelphia Flyers in their 2000 NHL Semifinals series -- New Jersey won Game 7 in Philadelphia to win series 810, 4-games-3. As such, ironically, the 2000 New Jersey Devils set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Ottawa Senators against the 2003 New Jersey Devils. In best-of-7 playoff series from 1905 through the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals and 2003 NBA Preliminary round, a team has posted a win order of WLLLWW at a site order of HHVVHV (as Ottawa has) five previous times: The series record of those teams was 1-4, including a current four-series losing streak.

After Game 5: The Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-1 to narrow New Jersey's MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 885 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 8-4; when trailing 3-games-2, the Ottawa Senators have a series record of 0-1. In best-of-7 playoff series from 1905 through the 2003 NBA and NHL Quarterfinals, when a team had a win order of LWWWL at a site order of VVHHV (as New Jersey has), its series record was 20-1: The sole loss occurred in best-of-7 series 227, in which the Phoenix Suns were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers in their 1970 NBA Quarterfinals series. Those 1970 Lakers thus set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Ottawa Senators.

After Game 4: The New Jersey Devils hosted and defeated the Ottawa Senators 5-goals-2 to take a 3-games-1 lead in best-of-7 series 885. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the New Jersey Devils have an 8-0 series record; when trailing 3-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have an 0-1 series record. From 1939 through the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals, when a team has had a 3-games-1 lead in an NHL best-of-7 Semifinals series, its series record is 54-1. The sole loss occurred in best-of-7 series 810 in 2000, when the Philadelphia Flyers took a 3-games-1 lead over the New Jersey Devils, but lost to the Devils in seven games. Ironically, then, the 2000 New Jersey Devils set a favorable precedent for the 2003 Ottawa Senators in Ottawa's series against the 2003 New Jersey Devils.

After Game 3: The New Jersey Devils hosted and defeated the Ottawa Senators 1-goal-nil to take a best-of-7 series 885 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 11-2 (and a current nine-series winning streak; the Devils' last series loss in this situation was in best-of-7 series 603 in the 1992 NHL Preliminary round, in which they were defeated by the New York Rangers in seven games) and a Game 4 record of 5-8; when trailing 2-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 4 record of 2-1. The New Jersey Devils have become the first NHL team to split Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 NHL playoff series on the road, and then win Game 3 at home by a score of 1-goal-nil.

After Game 2: The New Jersey Devils visited and defeated the Ottawa Senators 4-goals-1 to even best-of-7 series 885 at 1-game-all. When tied in an NHL best-of-7 playoff series at 1-game-all, the New Jersey Devils have a 9-9 series record and a 10-8 Game 3 record, while the Ottawa Senators have a 4-2 series record and a 5-1 Game 3 record.

After Game 1: With a goal 3:08 into the first overtime, the Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-2 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 885. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Ottawa Senators have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 2 record of 0-3; when trailing 1-game-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 7-7 and a Game 2 record of 11-3.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2002-03 regular season, the Ottawa Senators finished 5 points ahead of the New Jersey Devils. From 1939 through the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals, when an NHL team led its best-of-7 playoff series opponent by 5 regular-season points, it has gone on to post a 20-7 (.741) best-of-7 series record in that series against that opponent. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 885 is the second best-of-7 meeting between New Jersey and Ottawa; Ottawa leads 1-0, having won series 748 in the 1998 Preliminary round vs. New Jersey.