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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2004 MLB Finals round - Series 938.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox

Schedule and 2004 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 98-64, St. Louis 105-57
Game 1 on Saturday, 23 Oct: St. Louis loses at Boston, 11-runs-9
Game 2 on Sunday, 24 Oct: St. Louis loses at Boston, 6-runs-2
Game 3 on Tuesday, 26 Oct: Boston wins at St. Louis, 4-runs-1
Game 4 on Wednesday, 27 Oct: Boston wins at St. Louis, 3-runs-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-runs-nil to win best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals or World Series) in a 4-games-nil sweep. The sweep marks the 18th in the best-of-7 MLB Finals, the 21st in best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds), the 45th in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals-round series, and the 157th in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series. The four-game sweep is the first achieved by the Boston Red Sox, and the second suffered by the St. Louis Cardinals. With the series victory, the Boston Red Sox improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 7-8 (all rounds) and 5-4 (Finals only). With the series loss, the St. Louis Cardinals see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 12-10 (all rounds) and 9-7 (Finals only). With the Game 4 victory, the Boston Red Sox improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 4 record to 8-7 (all rounds) and 6-3 (Finals only). With the Game 4 defeat, the St. Louis Cardinals see their best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 4 record fall to 11-11 (all rounds) and 9-7 (Finals only). The Boston Red Sox leave series 938 with an MLB-high streak of 59 consecutive innings without having trailed in a best-of-7 MLB playoff game; this streak broke the record of the 56.5 consecutive deficit-free innings set by the Oakland Athletics in 1989-90, and will continue into the next best-of-7 MLB playoff series appearance by the Boston Red Sox. Series 938 is only the fourth "annihilation" in best-of-7 MLB playoff series history: The losing St. Louis Cardinals not only failed to win a single series 938 game, but also failed to hold a lead in any of the four series 938 games. The three previous MLB best-of-7 annihilations occurred in the MLB Finals of 1963, 1966, and 1989. In the 1963 MLB Finals, the Los Angeles Dodgers held in-game leads over the New York Yankees after 30 of the 35 innings played; in the 1966 MLB Finals, the Baltimore Orioles held in-game leads over the Los Angeles Dodgers after 24 of the 35 innings played; in the 1989 MLB Finals, the Oakland Athletics held in-game leads over the San Francisco Giants after 33 of the 35 innings played; in the 2004 MLB Finals, the Boston Red Sox held in-game leads over the St. Louis Cardinals after 34 of the 35 innings played.

After Game 3: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-runs-1 to take a 3-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals or World Series). With the win, Boston improves its best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 3 record to 6-9 overall and 5-4 in the MLB Finals. With the loss, St. Louis sees its best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 3 record slip to 14-8 overall and 9-7 in the MLB Finals. The Boston Red Sox are leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil for the first time. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have an overall series record of 0-1 and a Finals series record of 0-1 (losing to the New York Yankees in four games in the 1928 World Series). The Boston Red Sox have now won seven consecutive best-of-7 MLB playoff games. The most consecutive best-of-7 MLB playoff games won by one team over more than one such series is twelve (by the New York Yankees in the 1927, 1928, and 1932 World Series). Ironically, the most consecutive best-of-7 MLB playoff games lost by one team over more than one such series is also twelve (by the Boston Red Sox in Games 6-7 of the 1986 World Series, Games 1-4 of both the 1988 and 1990 American League Championship Series, and Games 1-2 of the 1999 American League Championship Series). Having not trailed an MLB best-of-7 playoff game since the bottom of the eighth inning of the 2004 American League Championship Series Game 5, Boston after 2004 World Series Game 3 has an active non-trailing streak of 50 innings (innings 9-14 of 2004 ALCS Game 5; 9 innings of Game 6; 9 innings of Game 7; 8.5 innings of 2004 World Series Game 1; 8.5 innings of World Series Game 2; 9 innings of Game 3). In best-of-7 MLB playoffs history, the longest stretch without trailing was 56.5 innings, as achieved by the Oakland Athletics (starting with the end of 1989 ALCS Game 3; 9 innings in each of 1989 ALCS Games 4 and 5; 8.5 innings in each of 1989 World Series Games 1 and 2; 9 innings in each of 1989 World Series Games 3 and 4; until the bottom of the fourth in 1990 ALCS Game 1). Thus, if the Red Sox can avoid trailing until the bottom of the seventh inning of Game 4, then Boston will have broken the record set by Oakland in 1989-90.

After Game 2: The Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-runs-2 to take a 2-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals or World Series). With the win, Boston improves its best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 2 record to 6-9 overall and 5-4 in the MLB Finals. With the loss, St. Louis sees its best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 2 record slip to 10-12 overall and 8-8 in the MLB Finals. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Red Sox have an overall series record of 1-1 and a Finals series record of 1-1 (with the win occurring in 1916 vs. the Brooklyn Dodgers, and the loss occurring in 1986 vs. the New York Mets). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have an overall series record of 1-5 (with an active three-series losing streak; with the sole series victory in the 1985 MLB Semifinals vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers) and a Finals series record of 0-3. In the MLB/NBA/NHL Finals, teams winning Games 1-2 at home have a 25-0 series record; the last team to win Games 1-2 at home but lose their MLB/NBA/NHL Finals-round series was the New York Yankees in 1981.

After Game 1: The Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 11-runs-9 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals or World Series). Series 938 Game 1 was the highest-scoring best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 1 ever at 20 total runs, breaking the old record of 18 runs set by the New York Yankees (12) and Chicago Cubs (6) in the first game of the 1932 World Series. With the win, Boston improves its best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 1 record to 8-7 overall and 7-2 in the MLB Finals. With the loss, St. Louis lowers its best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 1 record to 7-15 overall and 5-11 in the MLB Finals. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Red Sox have a 3-4 series record in all rounds (with an active four-series losing streak) and a 3-3 series record in the MLB Finals (with an active three-series losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 7-7 series record in all rounds (with an active four-series losing streak) and a 6-4 series record in the MLB Finals.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2004 regular season, St. Louis finished seven games ahead of Boston. From 1905 through the 2004 MLB Semifinals, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by seven regular-season games, they have posted a 3-5 (.375) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents (irrespective of home-field advantage). In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 24 (the 1931 World Series), the Philadelphia Athletics finished seven games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals, yet the Cardinals won the series 4-games-3. In series 47 (the 1943 World Series), the St. Louis Cardinals finished seven games ahead of the New York Yankees, yet the Yankees won the series 4-games-1. And in series 59 (the 1946 World Series), the Boston Red Sox finished seven games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals, yet the Cardinals won the series 4-games-3. Those 1931 and 1946 St. Louis Cardinals thus set a favorable precedent for the 2004 Boston Red Sox vs the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 938 is the fifteenth best-of-7 playoff series for Boston, and the 22nd for St. Louis. In best-of-7 playoff series, Boston has a 6-8 series record, a 4-4 Finals-round series record (with an active four-series losing streak), and a 7-7 Game 1 record, while St. Louis has a 12-9 series record, a 9-6 Finals-round record, and a 7-14 Game 1 record. Series 938 is the third best-of-7 meeting between the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals, with St. Louis having won series 59 (the 1946 World Series) and series 186 (the 1967 World Series).