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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2005 NBA Semifinals round - Series 952.
San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns

Schedule and 2004-05 Results
Regular Season Records: Phoenix 62-20, San Antonio 59-23
Game 1 on Sunday, 22 May: San Antonio wins at Phoenix, 121-pts-114
Game 2 on Tuesday, 24 May: San Antonio wins at Phoenix, 111-pts-108
Game 3 on Saturday, 28 May: Phoenix loses at San Antonio, 102-pts-92
Game 4 on Monday, 30 May: Phoenix wins at San Antonio, 111-pts-106
Game 5 on Wednesday, 01 June: San Antonio wins at Phoenix, 101-pts-95

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Suns in Phoenix 101-pts-95 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 952 Game 5, thus achieving a 4-games-1 series 952 victory. San Antonio thus improves its best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 16-13 overall (3-5 in the NBA Semifinals). Phoenix' best-of-7 NBA playoff series record falls to 10-16 overall (2-5 in the NBA Semifinals). A total of 1061 points were scored in series 952 -- the most in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series lasting five games since series 865 (when the Sacramento Kings defeated the Dallas Mavericks in the 2002 NBA Quarterfinals), and the most in a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series lasting five games since series 471 (when the Houston Rockets defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1986 NBA Semifinals). The win order for the victorious San Antonio Spurs was WWWLW in series 952: Series 952 thus becomes the ninth NBA Semifinals series, the 24th NBA playoff series (all rounds), and the 62nd MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to exhibit this win order.

After Game 4: Staving off elimination from MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 952, the Phoenix Suns defeated the Spurs in San Antonio 111-pts-106, thereby reducing the San Antonio series 952 lead to 3-games-1. When leading an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 8-1 (with an active seven-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 5-4. When trailing an NBA best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 0-6 and a Game 5 record of 3-3. Teams leading a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series 3-games-1 have a 40-3 series record, but one of the three series losers was the San Antonio Spurs: In series 363, the Spurs led the Washington Bullets 3-games-1 but lost Games 5-7 and the series (in the 1979 NBA Semifinals). Thus, the 1979 Washington Bullets set a favorable precedent for the 2005 Phoenix Suns.

After Game 3: The San Antonio Spurs hosted and defeated the Phoenix Suns 102-pts-92 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 952 Game 3. San Antonio thus takes a 3-games-nil series 952 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a 5-0 series record and a 3-2 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-nil, the Phoenix Suns have a 0-4 series record and a 2-2 Game 4 record. The Phoenix Suns thus become the NBA team with the second-most regular-season wins (62 in 2004-05) to fall behind 3-games-nil in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series. In series 719 (the 1996 NBA Finals), the Seattle Supersonics had won 64 games in the 1995-96 regular season but fell behind 3-games-nil to the Chicago Bulls; Seattle won Games 4-5 before losing Game 6 and the series.

After Game 2: The San Antonio Spurs visited and defeated the Suns in Phoenix 111-pts-108 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 952 Game 2. The Spurs thus take a 2-games-nil series 952 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 10-1 and a Game 3 record of 5-6. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 0-10 and a Game 3 record of 6-4. In the history of best-of-7 NBA Semifinals-round playoff series from 1947 through 2004, inclusive, teams leading 2-games-nil irrespective of site have a 54-2 (.964) series record. Only the New York Knickerbockers (in series 243 -- in the 1971 NBA Semifinals vs. the second incarnation of the Baltimore Bullets; in series 645 -- in the 1993 NBA Semifinals vs. the Chicago Bulls) have ever led a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals-round series 2-games-nil and lost the series.

After Game 1: The San Antonio Spurs visited and defeated the Suns in Phoenix 121-pts-114 in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 952 Game 1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the San Antonio Spurs have a series record of 12-3 and a Game 2 record of 11-4. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 3-11 (with an active six-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 4-10 (with an active six-Game-2 losing streak). At 235 total points, series 952 Game 1 was the highest-scoring NBA Semifinals game since series 621 Game 5 (in the 1992 NBA Semifinals), when the Trailblazers in Portland defeated the Utah Jazz 127-pts-121. Series 952 Game 1 was the highest-scoring NBA Semifinals Game 1 since series 546 Game 1 (in the 1989 NBA Semifinals), when the Lakers in Los Angeles defeated the Phoenix Suns 127-pts-119.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2004-05 regular season, Phoenix finished three games ahead of San Antonio. From 1947 through the 2005 NBA Quarterfinals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by three regular-season games, they have posted a 9-10 (.474) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 952 is the 29th best-of-7 playoff series for San Antonio, and the 26th for Phoenix. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, San Antonio has a 15-13 series record, a 2-5 Semifinals-round series record, and a 15-13 Game 1 record, while Phoenix has a 10-15 series record, a 2-4 Semifinals-round record, and an 11-14 Game 1 record. Series 952 is the third best-of-7 meeting between San Antonio and Phoenix: In series 643 (in the 1993 NBA Quarterfinals), Phoenix defeated San Antonio; in series 892 (in the 2003 NBA Preliminary round), San Antonio returned the favor.