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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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2006 MLB Finals round - Series 989.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers

Schedule and 2006 Results
Regular Season Records: Detroit 95-67, St. Louis 83-78
Game 1 on Saturday, 21 October: St. Louis wins at Detroit, 7-runs-2
Game 2 on Sunday, 22 October: St. Louis loses at Detroit, 3-runs-1
Game 3 on Tuesday, 24 October: Detroit loses at St. Louis, 5-runs-nil
Game 4 on Thursday, 26 October: Detroit loses at St. Louis, 5-runs-4
Game 5 on Friday, 27 October: Detroit loses at St. Louis, 4-runs-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The St. Louis Cardinals hosted and defeated the Detroit Tigers 4-runs-2 to win best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 989, 4-games-1. The Cardinals thus become the 2006 MLB champions. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, St. Louis improves its overall series record to 14-11 and its Finals-round series record to 10-7, while Detroit sees its overall series record fall to 5-7 and its Finals-round series record fall to 4-6. The win order for the victorious Cardinals in series 989 was WLWWW: Series 989 thus becomes the ninth MLB Finals series, the 13th MLB series (all rounds), and the 63rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow such a win order. The win/site order for the victorious St. Louis Cardinals in series 989 was WLWWW @ VVHHH: Ironically, the last two MLB/NBA/NHL Finals-round series to follow that particular win/site order were series 935 (in which the Detroit Pistons won the 2004 NBA Finals) and series 441 (in which the Detroit Tigers won the 1984 MLB Finals or World Series). Series 989 establishes 2006 as the second consecutive year in which the MLB Finals winner held the loser to five runs in the loser's home ballpark. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals become the MLB champion with the fewest regular-season wins (83) in any season with 160+ team games; the previous fewest regular-season wins (85) by an MLB champion were recorded by the 1987 Minnesota Twins (which, ironically, defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in series 500 [the 1987 World Series]). Series 989 marks the fifth-largest upset in best-of-7 MLB Finals history, since the St. Louis Cardinals finished 11.5 regular-season games behind the Detroit Tigers. Only the 1990 Cincinnati Reds (12 games behind the vanquished Oakland Athletics), 1974 Oakland Athletics (12 games behind the vanquished Los Angeles Dodgers), 1954 New York Giants (14 games behind the vanquished Cleveland Indians), and 1906 Chicago White Sox (22.5 games behind the vanquished Chicago Cubs) achieved larger upsets in best-of-7 MLB Finals. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals finshed a combined 25 regular-season games behind their 2006 best-of-7 playoff series opponents (the New York Mets and the Detroit Tigers). Since 1985, the first year of the best-of-7 MLB Semifinals, never before had an MLB champion finished so many combined regular-season games behind its Semifinals- and Finals-round opponents. In 1987, the Minnesota Twins set the previous low by finishing a combined 23 regular-season games behind their best-of-7 playoff series opponents (the Detroit Tigers and the St. Louis Cardinals).

After Game 4: The St. Louis Cardinals hosted and defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-runs-4 in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 989 Game 4, thereby taking a 3-games-1 series 989 lead. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 2-3 series record (with an active three-series losing streak) and a 1-4 Game 5 record (with an active four-Game-5 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series three-games-1, the Detroit Tigers have a 1-2 series record and a 1-2 Game 5 record. The first St. Louis series loss upon leading 3-games-1, and the only Detroit series win upon trailing 3-games-1, occurred in series 201 (the 1968 World Series between St. Louis and Detroit). In series 989 Game 4, the Detroit Tigers scored one run in the second inning and two runs in the third inning to take a 3-runs-nil lead over the host Cardinals. In the 805 best-of-7 MLB playoff games prior to series 989 Game 4, home teams trailing by three runs after 2.5 innings had only an 11-35 (.239) game record. In this sense, series 989 Game 4 mirrored series 411 Game 2, in which the visiting Milwaukee Brewers tallied one run in the second inning and two runs in the third inning to take a 3-runs-nil lead over the host Cardinals in the 1982 World Series -- again, St. Louis won 5-runs-4. Of the 11 comeback game victories in this situation prior to series 989 Game 4, the most recent occurred in series 937 Game 4, in which the visiting St. Louis Cardinals grabbed a three-run lead after 2.5 innings but succumbed to the host Houston Astros 6-runs-5 in the 2004 National League Championship Series. Also: In series 201 Game 5, the visiting St. Louis Cardinals held a three-run lead over the host Detroit Tigers after 2.5 innings, but lost to Detroit 5-runs-3 in their 1968 World Series game. Thrice have the St. Louis Cardinals taken a 3-games-1 best-of-7 MLB playoff series lead only to lose the series in seven games. With three lost series each after having led 3-games-1, the MLB St. Louis Cardinals and the NHL Washington Capitals lead the MLB/NBA/NHL with the most lost best-of-7 playoff series after having led 3-games-1 (although the Capitals have a 5-3 series record when leading 3-games-1). In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL Finals-round playoff series, teams winning Game 1 on the road, losing Game 2 on the road, and winning Games 3-4 at home (as St. Louis has) have an 8-1 series record with an active eight-series winning streak. The last two Finals-round series to follow this win/site order were series 935 (in which the Detroit Pistons won their 2004 NBA Finals series in five games) and series 441 (in which the Detroit Tigers won the 1984 World Series; in fact, a WLWWW @ VVHHH win/site order in series 989 [the 2006 World Series] would perfectly mirror that in the 1984 World Series, though with the Detroit Tigers this time on the losing rather than the winning end). Also following this win/site order through four games was series 186 (in which the St. Louis Cardinals won the 1967 World Series in seven games).

After Game 3: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 989 in St. Louis for Games 3-5, the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-runs-nil to take a 2-games-1 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 9-3 series record and a 5-7 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the Detroit Tigers have a 2-4 series record and a 3-3 Game 4 record -- the last of the two Tigers' wins in this situation occurred in series 201, in which the Tigers defeated none other than the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1968 MLB Finals or World Series. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams (such as St. Louis) winning Game 3 at home by shutout have a 9-5 series record overall, but a 6-0 series record in the last six such series. Ironically, the Cardinals shut out the New York Mets 5-runs-nil in Game 3 in St. Louis in the 2006 MLB Semifinals, while the Tigers shut out the Oakland Athletics in Game 3 in Detroit in the 2006 MLB Semifinals. Thus far in series 989, the St. Louis Cardinals have won Game 1 on the road, lost Game 2 on the road, and won Game 3 at home (WLW @ VVH). In best-of-7 MLB Finals, teams following a win/site order of WLW @ VVH have a 5-6 overall series record but a 4-0 series record in the last four such series. Ironically, the last such series was series 441, in which the Detroit Tigers defeated the San Diego Padres in the 1984 World Series. Of the five winners, two were the St. Louis Cardinals (in series 186 -- the 1967 World Series over the Boston Red Sox; in series 27 -- the 1934 World Series ... over the Detroit Tigers). In series 37 -- the Detroit Tigers opened the 1940 World Series WLW @ VVH, but lost in seven games to the Cincinnati Reds. So it is that the 1934 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1967 St. Louis Cardinals, and the 1984 Detroit Tigers set favorable precedents for the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, while the 1940 Cincinnati Reds set a favorable precedent for the 2006 Detroit Tigers (even though against the 1940 Detroit Tigers).

After Game 2: The Detroit Tigers shut out the St. Louis Cardinals for eight innings and defeated the Cardinals in Detroit 3-runs-1, thereby tying best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 989 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Detroit Tigers have a series record of 4-3 (with a three-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 3-4, while the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 11-4 and a Game 3 record of 10-5. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series from 1905 through the 2006 MLB Semifinals, when the home team (St. Louis) wins Game 3 to take a 2-games-1 series lead, its series record was 22-13 (.629), and when the road team (Detroit) wins Game 3 to take a 2-games-1 series lead, its series record was 29-9 (.763).

After Game 1: Buoyed by three-run third and sixth innings, the St. Louis Cardinals visited and defeated the Detroit Tigers 7-runs-2, thereby taking a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 989, the 2006 MLB Finals or World Series. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 5-3 series record and a 2-6 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Detroit Tigers have a 3-5 series record and a 5-3 Game 2 record. In series 989 Game 1, Detroit took a 1-run-nil lead in the first inning, but St. Louis tied it in the second inning and took a 4-runs-1 lead in the third inning. The St. Louis Cardinals thus concluded a streak of 42 consecutive World Series innings in which they had trailed in the game (without having ever led) at some point in the inning, starting with the sixth inning of series 500 (the 1987 World Series) Game 7 and going through the second inning of series 989 (the 2006 World Series) Game 1, inclusive. St. Louis also ended a losing streak of six consecutive World Series games with its series 989 Game 1 win. The Cardinals also won their first road World Series game since Game 2 of series 458 (the 1985 World Series, in Kansas City vs. the Royals); their road World Series game losing streak had been eight games over the 1985, 1987, and 2004 World Series. The seven runs plated by the Cardinals are the most by a road team in an MLB Finals Game 1 since series 938 (the 2004 World Series) Game 1, in which these same Cardinals scored nine runs in Boston in a losing effort. Only once before had a road team posted a 7-runs-2 win in Game 1 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series: In series 37 (the 1940 World Series) Game 1, none other than the Detroit Tigers defeated the Reds in Cincinnati 7-runs-2. Cincinnati won series 37 in the full seven games.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006 regular season, the Detroit Tigers finished 11.5 games ahead of St. Louis. From 1905 through the 2006 MLB Semifinals, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 11.5 or more regular-season games, they have posted an 18-8 (.692) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 989 is the 25th best-of-7 playoff series for the St. Louis Cardinals, and the 12th for the Detroit Tigers. In best-of-7 playoff series, St. Louis has a 13-11 series record, a 9-7 Finals-round series record with an active three-series losing streak, and an 8-16 Game 1 record, while Detroit has a 5-6 series record, a 4-5 Finals-round record with an active three-series winning streak, and a 3-8 Game 1 record. Series 989 is the third best-of-7 meeting between St. Louis and Detroit: St. Louis won series 27 (the 1934 World Series); Detroit won series 201 (the 1968 World Series).