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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2006 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 966.
New Jersey Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes

Schedule and 2005-06 Results
Regular Season Records: Carolina 52-22-8=112pts, New Jersey 46-27-9=101pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 06 May: New Jersey loses at Carolina, 6-goals-nil
Game 2 on Monday, 08 May: New Jersey loses at Carolina, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 3 on Wednesday, 10 May: Carolina wins at New Jersey, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Saturday, 13 May: Carolina loses at New Jersey, 5-goals-1
Game 5 on Sunday, 14 May: New Jersey loses at Carolina, 4-goals-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 4-goals-1 to win best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 966, 4-games-1. The series 966 victory improves the Carolina Hurricanes' best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 5-3, while that for the New Jersey Devils falls to 21-13. The win order for the victorious Carolina Hurricanes in series 966 was WWWLW: Series 966 thus becomes the 13th NHL Quarterfinals series, the 38th NHL series (all rounds), and the 65th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order.

After Game 4: Avoiding a four-game sweep and elimination from the 2006 NHL playoffs, the New Jersey Devils hosted and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 5-goals-1. The Carolina lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 966 has thus been reduced to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 1-0. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 1-4. In best-of-7 NHL Quarterfinals series, teams leading 3-games-1 at a site order of HHVV (such as Carolina in series 966) have a series record of 37-2. In series 295, the Pittsburgh Penguins were in this situation but lost their 1975 NHL Quarterfinals series to the New York Islanders; in series 884, the Vancouver Canucks were in this situation but lost their 2003 NHL Quarterfinals series to the Minnesota Wild. The 1975 Islanders and the 2003 Wild thus set favorable precedents for the 2006 Devils.

After Game 3: The Carolina Hurricanes visited and defeated the New Jersey Devils 3-goals-2 to take a 3-games-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 966. Carolina thus extends its game-winning streak to seven games. The Carolina Hurricanes are now leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil for the first time. The New Jersey Devils have a series record of 0-1 when trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-nil; the loss was a five-game loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins in series 628 (in the 1993 NHL Preliminary round).

After Game 2: Falling behind by one goal with 21 seconds left in regulation, the Hurricanes in Carolina tied the New Jersey Devils with just three seconds left in regulation, and scored in overtime to win 3-goals-2 and to take a 2-games-nil best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 966 lead. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2004, home teams trailing by a goal with four seconds left in regulation had a 1-284 (.0035) game record; the sole winner in that situation had been the Vancouver Canucks, which trailed the Minnesota Wild late in series 884 Game 1 (in the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals) but tied their game in Vancouver with two seconds left and won in overtime. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 1-0 series record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a 1-3 series record with a two-series losing streak.

After Game 1: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and defeated the New Jersey Devils 6-goals-nil to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 966. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 2-1. When trailing such a series 1-game-nil, the New Jersey Devils have a series record of 8-8. The 6-goals-nil home-ice shutout victory by Carolina (occurring just one day after the Mighty Ducks shut out the Colorado Avalanche 5-goals-nil in Anaheim in series 968 Game 1) is the most lopsided Game 1 home-team shutout victory since series 727 Game 1, in which the Colorado Avalanche whitewashed the Chicago Blackhawks 6-goals-nil to open their 1997 NHL Preliminary round series. In the history of best-of-7 format NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2005 Preliminary round, home teams posting shutout victories in Game 1 by four or more goals have a series record of 17-3 (.850).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2005-06 regular season, Carolina finished 11 points ahead of New Jersey. From 1939 through the 2005-06 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 11 regular-season points, they have posted an 8-9 (.471) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 966 is the 34th best-of-7 playoff series for New Jersey, and the eighth for Carolina. In best-of-7 playoff series, New Jersey has a 21-12 series record, a 6-1 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 17-16 Game 1 record, while Carolina has a 4-3 series record, a 1-0 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 3-4 Game 1 record. Series 966 is the third best-of-7 meeting between New Jersey and Carolina; the teams split their first two best-of-7 NHL playoff series meetings.