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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2006 NHL Semifinals round - Series 969.
Buffalo Sabres vs Carolina Hurricanes

Schedule and 2005-06 Results
Regular Season Records: Carolina 52-22-8=112pts, Buffalo 52-24-6=110pts
Game 1 on Saturday, 20 May: Buffalo wins at Carolina, 3-goals-2
Game 2 on Monday, 22 May: Buffalo loses at Carolina, 4-goals-3
Game 3 on Wednesday, 24 May: Carolina loses at Buffalo, 4-goals-3
Game 4 on Friday, 26 May: Carolina wins at Buffalo, 4-goals-nil
Game 5 on Sunday, 28 May: Buffalo loses at Carolina, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 6 on Tuesday, 30 May: Carolina loses at Buffalo, 2-goals-1 (OT)
Game 7 on Thursday, 01 June: Buffalo loses at Carolina, 4-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and defeated the Buffalo Sabres 4-goals-2 to win best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969, 4-games-3. With the series 969 victory, the Carolina Hurricanes improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 6-3. With the series 969 loss, the Buffalo Sabres see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 13-22. The win order for the victorious Carolina Hurricanes in series 969 was LWLWWLW: Series 969 thus becomes the third NHL Semifinals series, the eighth NHL series (all rounds), and the 17th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order. Carolina trailed by one goal at the start of the third period, but scored 1:34 into the third to tie the game, and subsequently scored the last two goals of the game to secure the win. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2004, only 11 times had the home team trailed in Game 7 with 1:33 elapsed in the third period: On those 11 occasions, the home team posted a 3-8 record. The previous home team Game 7 win in that situation occurred in series 724 (in the 1997 Preliminary round), with the Ottawa Senators losing on the road to ... the host Buffalo Sabres.

After Game 6: With the winning goal 4:22 into the first overtime period, the Buffalo Sabres hosted and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 2-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969 at 3-games-all. Buffalo has a 1-4 Game 7 record; Carolina will be playing its first Game 7. From 1939 through the 2006 NHL Quarterfinals, NHL teams at home for Game 7 have a 73-44 (.624) record in all rounds, and a 19-8 (.704) record in the Semifinals. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, nineteen previous times had a team lost Game 6 in overtime on the road (such as Carolina) and then played Game 7 on home ice: On those nineteen occasions, the home team has a 13-6 (.684) Game 7 record.

After Game 5: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and defeated the Buffalo Sabres 4-goals-3 in overtime to take a 3-games-2 lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 4-0 series record (and a 4-0 Game 6 record). When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Buffalo Sabres have a 1-12 series record, with the sole Buffalo victory occurring in series 724 over the Ottawa Senators in the 1997 NHL Preliminary round. Carolina trailed Buffalo by two goals as late as 5:20 into the second period: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2004, teams trailing by two goals as late as 5:20 into the second period had a game record of only 74-505 (.128); thus, the historical victory probability of a Carolina series 969 Game 5 win at that point was barely over one in eight. The Carolina Hurricanes have posted a win/site order of LWLWW @ HHVVH: In the history of MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) from 1905 through the 2006 NBA and NHL Quarterfinals, teams posting a win/site order of LWLWW @ HHVVH through five games had a 21-1 (.955) series record. The only team to do so but lose the series was the NHL Pittsburgh Penguins, losing in series 710 to the Florida Panthers in the 1996 NHL Semifinals.

After Game 4: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969 Game 4 in Buffalo, the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the host Sabres 4-goals-nil to tie series 969 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 3-1 with a three-series winning streak, while the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 3-9 (with the last decision, a series victory, coming in series 960 against the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2006 NHL Preliminary round earlier this playoff season). In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 to the present, when teams win Game 4 by shutout to tie a series at 2-games-all, their series record is 6-11 with a two-series winning streak (that ended an eight-series losing streak).

After Game 3: The Buffalo Sabres hosted and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 4-goals-3 (again) to take a 2-games-1 lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Buffalo Sabres have an 8-2 series record with a six-series winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Carolina Hurricanes have a 2-1 series record. Teams (such as Buffalo) leading 2-games-1 in a best-of-7 NHL Semifinals series have won the last seven such series.

After Game 2: The Carolina Hurricanes hosted and defeated the Buffalo Sabres 4-goals-3 to even best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 4-7, while the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 2-2.

After Game 1: The Buffalo Sabres visited and defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 3-goals-2 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Buffalo Sabres have a series record of 12-8 with a three-series winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Carolina Hurricanes have a series record of 2-2 with a two-series winning streak. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2006 Quarterfinals, teams winning Game 1 on the road by one goal (such as Buffalo) have a series record of 47-37 (.560) and a five-series winning streak.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2005-06 NHL regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes finished two points ahead of the Buffalo Sabres. From 1905 through the 2006 NHL Quarterfinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season points, they have posted a 10-9 (.526) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 969 is the 35th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for Buffalo, and the ninth for Carolina. In best-of-7 playoff series, Buffalo has a 13-21 series record, a 2-2 Semifinals-round series record, and a 20-14 Game 1 record, while Carolina has a 5-3 series record, a 1-0 Semifinals-round record, and a 4-4 Game 1 record. Series 969 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series between Buffalo and Carolina.