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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2007 NHL Preliminary round - Series 993.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators

Schedule and 2007 Results
Regular Season Records: Ottawa 48-25-9=105pts, Pittsburgh 47-24-11=105pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 11 April: Pittsburgh loses at Ottawa, 6-goals-3
Game 2 on Saturday, 14 April: Pittsburgh wins at Ottawa, 4-goals-3
Game 3 on Sunday, 15 April: Ottawa wins at Pittsburgh, 4-goals-2
Game 4 on Tuesday, 17 April: Ottawa wins at Pittsburgh, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Thursday, 19 April: Pittsburgh loses at Ottawa, 3-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-goals-nil to win best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 993, 4-games-1. Series 993 thus improves the Ottawa Senators' best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 6-9 overall and 5-5 in the Preliminary round, and lowers the Pittsburgh Penguins' best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 18-15 overall and 9-4 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Ottawa Senators in series 993 was WLWWW: Series 993 thus becomes the fifth best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round playoff series, the 29th best-of-7 NHL playoff series (all rounds), and the 64th MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to follow this win order. Ironically, it was in series 957 (in the 2006 NHL Preliminary round) that the Ottawa Senators defeated the defending NHL champion Tampa Bay Lightning via this exact same win order.

After Game 4: The Ottawa Senators visited and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 993 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 5 record of 3-1 with a three-Game 5 winning streak. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 2-4 with a three-series losing streak, and a Game 5 record of 3-3 with a three-Game 5 losing streak. The two Pittsburgh series victories under these circumstances occurred in series 604 (over the Washington Capitals in their 1992 NHL Preliminary round) and in series 675 (again over the Capitals, this time in their 1995 NHL Preliminary round).

After Game 3: With best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 993 having shifted to Pittsburgh for Games 3-4, the visiting Ottawa Senators defeated the host Pittsburgh Penguins 4-goals-2 to take a 2-games-1 series 993 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Ottawa Senators have a 5-1 series record with a three-series winning streak, and a 4-2 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 6-6 series record with a three-series losing streak, and a 7-5 Game 4 record. In all six best-of-7 format NHL playoff series in which Ottawa led 2-games-1, the Senators had won Game 3 to take that 2-games-1 lead (as opposed to, say, winning Games 1 and 2 but losing Game 3).

After Game 2: The Pittsburgh Penguins visited and defeated the Ottawa Senators 4-goals-3 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 993 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 8-8 and a Game 3 record of 8-8, while the Ottawa Senators have a series record of 5-4 and a Game 3 record of 6-3. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Ottawa Senators see their Game 2 record fall to 0-7 upon having won Game 1. Ottawa led series 993 Game 2 by a goal on home ice as late as 9:33 into the third period (Pittsburgh tied it at 9:34): In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2006, when a home team led by one goal at 9:33 into the third period, its game record was 428-74 (.853). Series 993 Game 2 thus constitutes a minor upset for Pittsburgh in this context.

After Game 1: The Ottawa Senators hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-goals-3 to take a 1-game-nil lead in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 993. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Ottawa Senators have a 3-3 series record and a perfect 0-6 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 9-9 series record and an 11-7 Game 2 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games since their consistent use beginning in 1939, teams scoring six goals en route to a Game 1 win have a series record of 36-15 (.706). The Ottawa Senators scored just nine seconds into the third period: That is the fastest goal after the opening of the third period in a best-of-7 NHL playoff game since the Edmonton Oilers also scored nine seconds into the third period in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 430 Game 4 (en route to a 5-goals-3 victory over the Calgary Flames in their 1984 NHL Quarterfinals series).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2006-07 regular season, Ottawa and Pittsburgh finished tied in points. From 1905 through the 2006 MLB Finals, when NHL teams were tied with their best-of-7 playoff series opponents in regular-season points, the team playing Game 1 on home ice has posted a 7-6 (.539) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. Best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 993 is the 33rd best-of-7 playoff series for Pittsburgh, and the 15th for Ottawa. In best-of-7 playoff series, Pittsburgh has an 18-14 series record, a 9-3 Prelim-round series record with a three-series winning streak, and a 14-18 Game 1 record, while Ottawa has a 5-9 series record, a 4-5 Prelim-round record, and a 6-8 Game 1 record. Series 993 is the first best-of-7 meeting between Pittsburgh and Ottawa. The last best-of-7 NHL playoff series appearance for the Pittsburgh Penguins was best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 835, which Pittsburgh lost in five games to the New Jersey Devils in the 2001 NHL Semifinals.