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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NBA Preliminary round - Series 1040.
Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Orlando 52-30, Toronto 41-41
Game 1 on Sunday, 20 April: Toronto loses at Orlando, 114-pts-100
Game 2 on Tuesday, 22 April: Toronto loses at Orlando, 104-pts-103
Game 3 on Thursday, 24 April: Orlando loses at Toronto, 108-pts-94
Game 4 on Saturday, 26 April: Orlando wins at Toronto, 106-pts-94
Game 5 on Monday, 28 April: Toronto loses at Orlando, 102-pts-92

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Orlando Magic hosted and defeated the Toronto Raptors 102-pts-92 to complete a 4-games-1 win of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1040. Orlando thus improves its best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 4-4 overall and 1-2 in the Preliminary round. Toronto thus sees its best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 0-3 overall and 0-2 in the Preliminary round. The win order for the victorious Orlando Magic was WWLWW in series 1040: Series 1040 thus becomes the tenth NBA Preliminary-round series, the 43rd NBA series (all rounds), and the 89th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order.

After Game 4: The Orlando Magic visited and defeated the Toronto Raptors 106-pts-94 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1040. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Orlando Magic have a 1-1 series record and a 1-1 Game 5 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Toronto Raptors have a 0-1 series record and a 1-0 Game 5 record. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through 2007, inclusive, teams such as Orlando that lead 3-games-1 with Games 1-2 at home and Games 3-4 on the road have a dominant 109-1 series record. The sole loss in that situation was sustained by the Phoenix Suns in series 691, losing in seven games to the eventual 1995 NBA champion Houston Rockets in their 1995 NBA Quarterfinals series. The 1995 Houston Rockets thus offer a favorable precedent for the 2008 Toronto Raptors.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1040 having moved from Florida to Ontario for Games 3-4, the host Toronto Raptors defeated the visiting Orlando Magic 108-pts-94, thereby narrowing the Orlando series 1040 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Orlando Magic have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 4 record of 1-2. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-1, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-1.

After Game 2: The Orlando Magic hosted and defeated the Toronto Raptors 104-pts-103 to take a 2-games-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1040. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Orlando Magic have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 3 record of 1-1; the Toronto Raptors are trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil for the first time. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series from 1947 through 2007, inclusive, teams winning Games 1-2 at home with a one-point margin of victory in Game 2 (akin to what Orlando has achieved in series 1040) have a 6-0 series record (last achieved in series 839 by the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2001 NBA Quarterfinals).

After Game 1: The Orlando Magic hosted and defeated the Toronto Raptors 114-pts-100 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1040. When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Orlando Magic have a series record of 3-1 and a Game 2 record of 2-2; when trailing 1-game-nil in the same type of series, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 2 record of 1-0. Orlando took a 20-point first-quarter lead over Toronto in Game 1: That 20-point first-quarter lead was the biggest first-quarter lead ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 1 - the previous largest such lead was 19, set by the Indiana Pacers against the Philadelphia 76ers in series 813 Game 1 (in the 2000 NBA Quarterfinals).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Orlando finished 11 games ahead of Toronto. From 1947 through the 2007 NBA Finals, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 11 regular-season games, they have posted a 16-4 (.800) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1040 is the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series for Toronto, and the eighth for Orlando. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Toronto has a 0-2 series record, a 0-1 Prelim-round series record, and a 1-1 Game 1 record, while Orlando has a 3-4 series record, a 0-2 Prelim-round record, and a 4-3 Game 1 record. Series 1040 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between Toronto and Orlando.