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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NHL Preliminary round - Series 1025.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Washington 43-31-8=94pts, Philadelphia 42-29-11=95pts
Game 1 on Friday, 11 April: Philadelphia loses at Washington, 5-goals-4
Game 2 on Sunday, 13 April: Philadelphia wins at Washington, 2-goals-nil
Game 3 on Tuesday, 15 April: Washington loses at Philadelphia, 6-goals-3
Game 4 on Thursday, 17 April: Washington loses at Philadelphia, 4-goals-3 (2OT)
Game 5 on Saturday, 19 April: Philadelphia loses at Washington, 3-goals-2
Game 6 on Monday, 21 April: Washington wins at Philadelphia, 4-goals-2
Game 7 on Tuesday, 22 April: Philadelphia wins at Washington, 3-goals-2 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: With a goal 6:06 into the first overtime period, the Philadelphia Flyers visited and bested the Washington Capitals 3-goals-2 for a 4-games-3 MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025 victory. With the series 1025 win, the Philadelphia Flyers improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 32-25 overall and 9-6 in the Preliminary round. With the series 1025 loss, the Washington Capitals see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 8-17 overall and 5-10 in the Preliminary round. The Washington Capitals best-of-7 NHL playoff series losing streak thus reaches five series, having begun with their series 762 loss in the 1998 NHL Finals. The victorious Philadelphia Flyers posted a win order of LWWWLLW in series 1025: Series 1025 thus becomes the third NHL Preliminary-round series, the seventh NHL series (all rounds), and the 13th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order. Among the seven NHL series to follow the LWWWLLW win order are series 885 by the New Jersey Devils (in the 2003 NHL Semifinals), series 833 by the Colorado Avalanche (in the 2001 NHL Quarterfinals), and series 665 by the New York Rangers (in the 1994 NHL Finals) - the 2003 Devils, 2001 Avalanche, and 1994 Rangers were NHL champions.

After Game 6: Trailing 2-goals-nil early in the second period in Philadelphia, the visiting Washington Capitals scored four unanswered goals and defeated the host Flyers 4-goals-2 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025 at 3-games-all. The Game 7 record of the Washington Capitals is 1-4, while that for the Philadelphia Flyers is 6-6. The sole Washington Game 7 win occurred in series 504 - against Philadelphia, in Washington, in their 1988 NHL Preliminary-round series (thus can the 2008 Washington Capitals find a favorable precedent from their predecessors twenty years prior). From 1939 through 2007, inclusive, home teams in the NHL (e.g., Washington in series 1025) have a best-of-7 Game 7 record of 76-44 (.633) in all rounds, and a best-of-7 Game 7 record of 25-17 (.595) in the Preliminary round.

After Game 5: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025 back in the District of Columbia for Game 5, the host Washington Capitals staved off elimination with a 3-goals-2 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers, thus whittling the Philadelphia series lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 16-2 series record and an 11-7 Game 6 record; when trailing 3-games-2, the Washington Capitals have a 1-7 series record with an active six-series losing streak, and a Game 6 record of 2-6 with a five-Game 6 losing streak. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series, teams (such as Philadelphia) with a win/site order through five games of LWWWL @ VVHHV have a perfect (though perhaps unlucky) series record of 13-0; one of those thirteen winners was the 1974 edition of the Philadelphia Flyers, which defeated the Boston Bruins for the 1974 NHL championship in series 283.

After Game 4: Scoring at the 6:40 mark of double overtime, the host Philadelphia Flyers defeated the visiting Washington Capitals 4-goals-3 to take a 3-games-1 MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 15-2 series record and an 11-6 Game 5 record; when trailing 3-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a 1-5 series record with an active four-series losing streak, and a Game 5 record of 2-4. In best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2007, home teams at 6:39 into double overtime (i.e., one second before the Philadelphia goal in series 1025 Game 4) had a 24-40 (.375) game record.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025 in Pennsylvania for Games 3 and 4, the host Philadelphia Flyers bested the visiting Washington Capitals 6-goals-3 in Game 3 for a 2-games-1 series lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers have a series record of 15-3 and a Game 4 record of 11-7; when trailing 2-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 3-5 and a Game 4 mark of 4-4.

After Game 2: The Philadelphia Flyers rebounded from their Game 1 road loss to defeat the Capitals at Washington 2-goals-nil, thereby tying MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 7-9 and a Game 3 record of 8-8, while the Philadelphia Flyers have a series record of 13-15 and a Game 3 record of 11-17.

After Game 1: The Washington Capitals hosted and defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 5-goals-4 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Capitals have a 4-11 series record and a 4-11 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have an 11-17 series record and a 16-12 Game 2 record. So, ironically, the historical Washington series record after winning Game 1 (4-11, .267) is worse than the historical Philadelphia series record after losing Game 1 (11-17, .393) - statistically insignificant though those marks might be. In series 1025 Game 1, Washington trailed Philadelphia 4-goals-2 as late as 1:49 into the third period (i.e., one second before the Capitals tallied their third goal). In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2007, inclusive, teams trailing by two goals as late as 1:49 into the third period had a game record of only 34-609 (.053). The Washington Game 1 victory thus constitutes the comeback of greatest note thus far in the still-young (three-day-old) Spring 2008 playoff season, given that the Capitals had a historical probability of only 5.3% of achieving it just before their third series 1025 Game 1 goal.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, Washington finished one point behind Philadelphia, securing home-ice advantage only by virtue of winning a regular-season division title. From 1939 through the 2007 NHL Finals, when NHL teams such as Washington trailed their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by one regular-season point, they have posted a 2-10 (.167) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents (although it should be noted that, in all twelve previous cases, the team trailing by one regular-season point opened the playoff series on the road). MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1025 is the 57th best-of-7 playoff series for Philadelphia, and the 25th for Washington. In best-of-7 playoff series, Philadelphia has a 31-25 series record, an 8-6 Prelim-round series record, and a 28-28 Game 1 record, while Washington has an 8-16 series record (with an active four-series losing streak), a 5-9 Prelim-round record, and a 15-9 Game 1 record. Series 1025 is the third best-of-7 meeting between Philadelphia and Washington: In MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 504, Washington defeated Philadelphia in seven games in the 1988 NHL Preliminary round; in series 528, Philadelphia defeated Washington in six games in the 1989 NHL Preliminary round.