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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2008 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 1031.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Montreal Canadiens

Schedule and 2008 Results
Regular Season Records: Montreal 47-25-10=104pts, Philadelphia 42-29-11=95pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 24 April: Philadelphia loses at Montreal, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 2 on Saturday, 26 April: Philadelphia wins at Montreal, 4-goals-2
Game 3 on Monday, 28 April: Montreal loses at Philadelphia, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 30 April: Montreal loses at Philadelphia, 4-goals-2
Game 5 on Saturday, 03 May: Philadelphia wins at Montreal, 6-goals-4

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Philadelphia Flyers visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 6-goals-4 to achieve a 4-games-1 win in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1031. With the series 1031 win, the Philadelphia Flyers improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 33-25 overall and 15-7 in the NHL Quarterfinals. With the series 1031 loss, the Montreal Canadiens see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 72-34 overall and 14-12 in the NHL Quarterfinals. The win order for the victorious Philadelphia Flyers in series 1031 is LWWWW: Series 1031 thus becomes the eighth NHL Quarterfinals series, the 29th NHL series (all rounds), and the 49th MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series (all rounds) to follow this win order to series completion.

After Game 4: The Philadelphia Flyers hosted and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-goals-2 to take a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1031. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers have a series record of 16-2 and a Game 5 record of 11-7. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 1-12 and a Game 5 record of 6-7. Though Montreal has but a 1-12 series record when down 3-games-1, the Canadiens' sole victory occurred in the last such series (series 907, in which they had trailed the Boston Bruins 3-games-1 in their 2004 NHL Preliminary-round series but rallied to win 4-games-3). Through four games of series 1031, the Philadelphia Flyers have posted a win/site order of LWWW @ VVHH. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2008 NHL Preliminary round, teams losing Game 1 and winning Games 2-4 with Games 1-2 on the road and Games 3-4 at home have a perfect 26-0 series record.

After Game 3: The Philadelphia Flyers hosted and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 3-goals-2 to take a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1031. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Philadelphia Flyers have a series record of 16-3 and a Game 4 record of 12-7. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Montreal Canadiens have a series record of 5-15 and a Game 4 record of 12-8. Through three games of series 1031, the Philadelphia Flyers have a win/site order of LWW @ VVH. The last team in the NHL Quarterfinals to post such a win/site order through three games was the Montreal Canadiens, in series 856. That edition of the Canadiens would lose Games 4-6 and their 2002 NHL Quarterfinals series to the Carolina Hurricanes. So it is that the 2002 Carolina Hurricanes set a favorable precedent for the 2008 Montreal Canadiens, albeit against the 2002 Montreal Canadiens.

After Game 2: The Philadelphia Flyers visited and defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-goals-2 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1031 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 14-15 series record and a 12-17 Game 1 record, while the Montreal Canadiens have a 19-15 series record and a 24-10 Game 1 record.

After Game 1: Tallying the tying goal with 0:29 left in regulation and the winning goal 0:48 into the first overtime period, the Montreal Canadiens hosted and topped the Philadelphia Flyers 4-goals-3 to take a 1-game-nil MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1031 lead. When leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Montreal Canadiens have a 57-9 series record and a 52-14 Game 2 record. When trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Philadelphia Flyers have a 12-17 series record and a 17-12 Game 2 record. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2007, inclusive, teams trailing by one goal with only 0:30 left in regulation (i.e., Montreal in series 1031 Game 1) had only a 10-747 (.013) game record.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2007-08 regular season, the Montreal Canadiens finished nine points ahead of the Philadelphia Flyers. From 1939 through the 2008 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by nine regular-season points, they have posted a 13-11 (.542) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1031 is the 58th best-of-7 playoff series for Philadelphia, and the 106th for Montreal. In best-of-7 playoff series, Philadelphia has a 32-25 series record, a 14-7 Quarterfinals series record, and a 28-29 Game 1 record, while Montreal has a 72-33 series record, a 14-11 Quarterfinals record, and a 66-39 Game 1 record. Series 1031 is the fifth best-of-7 meeting between Philadelphia and Montreal, with Montreal having won three of the four previous best-of-7 meetings. In series 266, Montreal defeated Philadelphia in the 1973 NHL Semifinals. In series 313, Montreal did likewise in the 1976 NHL Finals to win their first of four consecutive NHL championships. In series 488, Philadelphia defeated Montreal in the 1987 NHL Semifinals. In series 538, Montreal topped Philadelphia in the 1989 NHL Semifinals.