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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2010 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1119.
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers

Schedule and 2010 Results
Regular Season Records: Texas 90-72, New York Yankees 95-67
Game 1 on Friday, 15 October: N.Y. Yankees win at Texas, 6-runs-5
Game 2 on Saturday, 16 October: N.Y. Yankees lose at Texas, 7-runs-2
Game 3 on Monday, 18 October: Texas wins at N.Y. Yankees, 8-runs-nil
Game 4 on Tuesday, 19 October: Texas wins at N.Y. Yankees, 10-runs-3
Game 5 on Wednesday, 20 October: Texas loses at N.Y. Yankees, 7-runs-2
Game 6 on Friday, 22 October: N.Y. Yankees lose at Texas, 6-runs-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1119 back in North Texas for its conclusion, the host Texas Rangers defeated the visiting New York Yankees 6-runs-1 to win their 2010 MLB Semifinals series (the 2010 American League Championship Series), 4-games-2. The series victory is the first MLB best-of-7 playoff series victory by the Texas Rangers, in their first such series. With the series 1119 loss, the New York Yankees see their MLB best-of-7 playoff series record fall to 34-14 overall and 7-2 in the MLB Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Texas Rangers in series 1119 was LWWWLW: Series 1119 thus becomes the sixth MLB Semfinals series, the 13rd MLB series (all rounds), and the 43rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Ironically, the last MLB playoff series to follow the LWWWLW win order to completion was series 1088, in which the just-vanquished New York Yankees won the 2009 MLB Finals (the 2009 World Series, over the Philadelphia Phillies). The last MLB Semifinals series to follow the LWWWLW win order to completion was series 955, in which the Houston Astros won their 2005 MLB Semifinals series (the 2005 National League Championship Series, over the St. Louis Cardinals) in what prior to series 1119 Game 6 was the one and only MLB best-of-7 playoff series victory by a team whose home base was/is in the state of Texas. In series 1119, Texas perfectly doubled New York in total runs scored (38 to 19), in runs in Texas (18 by the Rangers to 9 by the Yankees), and in runs in New York (20 by the Rangers to 10 by the Yankees). Only once before in an MLB best-of-7 playoff series had such a triple-double been achieved (in series 772, in which the New York Yankees accomplished the perfect doubling in all three categories against the San Diego Padres in the 1998 MLB Finals). The Texas Rangers in series 1119 tallied a total of 38 runs, thereby setting a record for most runs scored by one team in an MLB best-of-7 Semifinals-round playoff series lasting six games (breaking the previous record of 33 runs set by the 1993 Atlanta Braves in series 649 and tied by the 2009 New York Yankees in series 1086). The Texas Rangers in series 1119 tallied a total of 20 runs on the road, thereby tying a record for most runs scored on the road by one team in an MLB best-of-7 Semifinals-round playoff series lasting six games (tying the record set by the 1993 Atlanta Braves in series 649 and tied by the 2009 New York Yankees in series 1086). The Texas Rangers and New York Yankees in series 1119 combined for a total of 57 runs, thereby breaking a record for most total runs scored in an MLB best-of-7 Semifinals-round playoff series lasting six games (breaking the record of 56 total runs set by the 1993 Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies in series 649).

After Game 5: Staving off elimination from the 2010 MLB playoffs, the New York Yankees hosted and defeated the Texas Rangers 7-runs-2, thereby narrowing the Texas MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1119 lead to 3-games-2. When trailing an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-2, the New York Yankees have a 2-6 series record but a 6-2 Game 6 record.

After Game 4: The Texas Rangers visited and defeated the New York Yankees via an NFLish 10-runs-3 score to seize a 3-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1119. When trailing an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 3-games-1, the New York Yankees have a 1-1 series record and a 1-1 Game 5 record. In series 1119 Games 1-4, Texas has scored a total of 30 runs, ranking the 2010 Rangers ninth in the category of most runs by one team in the first four games of an MLB best-of-7 playoff series. The leaders in that category are the New York Yankees (with 37 runs in series 25, in the 1932 MLB Finals) and the Toronto Blue Jays (also with 37 runs but in series 650, in the 1993 MLB Finals). In series 1119 Games 3-4, Texas on the road has scored a total of 18 runs, ranking third in the category of most runs by a road team in Games 3-4 of an MLB best-of-7 Semifinals series. Ranking ahead of the 2010 Texas Rangers in that rather arcane category are the 2004 New York Yankees (with 23 such runs in series 936, in the 2004 MLB Semifinals) and the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays (with 22 such runs in series 1053, in the 2008 MLB Semifinals). As do the 2010 Texas Rangers in series 1119, the 2004 Yankees in series 936 and the 2008 Rays in series 1053 also held 3-games-1 leads. But New York (whose series 936 lead had been as good as 3-games-nil) would proceed to lose Games 5-7 and the series, and Tampa Bay would proceed to lose Games 5-6 only to eke out a Game 7 home win. It will be interesting to see if the 2010 Texas Rangers, despite similarly prodigious offensive output in their first two games on the road in series 1119, have similar difficulties in Game 5 and so forth.

After Game 3: With MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1119 in New York, the visiting Texas Rangers defeated the host Yankees 8-runs-nil to take a 2-games-1 series lead. When trailing an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Yankees have an 8-3 series record and a 9-2 Game 4 record with an active four-Game 4 winning streak. The 8-runs-nil Game 3 victory by Texas is the most one-sided MLB best-of-7 format Game 3 shutout since series 1087, in which the Philadelphia Phillies blanked the Los Angeles Dodgers 11-runs-nil in Game 3 of their 2009 MLB Semifinals series. The twenty total runs tallied by Texas in series 1119 Games 1-3 are the most through the first three games of an MLB best-of-7 playoff series since the aforementioned series 1087, in which the aforementioned Phillies also tallied twenty in Games 1-3 of that 2009 MLB Semifinals series against the Dodgers. In their best-of-7 playoff history, the New York Yankees have been dangerous when down 2-games-1: Among MLB teams trailing 2-games-1 in best-of-7 playoff series, only the Florida Marlins (2-0, 1.000) and the old Milwaukee Braves (1-0, 1.000) have higher best-of-7 series-winning percentages than the Yankees (8-3, .727) in this situation.

After Game 2: Winning their first MLB best-of-7 playoff game, the Texas Rangers hosted and defeated the New York Yankees 7-runs-2 to knot MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1119 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in an MLB best-of-7 playoff series, the New York Yankees have a 15-6 series record and a 15-6 Game 3 record (with an active four-Game 3 winning streak). The twelve total Texas runs in Games 1-2 are the most by one team in the first two games of an MLB best-of-7 playoff series since series 1022, in which the Boston Red Sox tallied 15 runs against the Colorado Rockies in 2007 MLB Finals Games 1-2. The twelve total Texas runs in Games 1-2 are the most by one team in the first two games of an MLB best-of-7 Semifinals series since series 1020, in which the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians each tallied 16 runs against each other in Games 1-2 of their 2007 MLB Semifinals series.

After Game 1: Trailing the host Texas Rangers 5-runs-nil after six full innings and 5-runs-1 after seven full innings, the New York Yankees welcomed the Rangers to MLB best-of-7 playoff series action with a come-from-behind 6-runs-5 defeat of Texas. New York thus takes a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1119. Series 1119 Game 1 was the first Texas Rangers best-of-7 playoff game. When leading an MLB best-of-7 playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Yankees have a 23-6 series record, and an 18-11 Game 2 record with a seven Game 2 winning streak begun in series 772 (the 1998 MLB Finals). In the history of MLB best-of-7 playoff games from 1905 through the 2009 Finals, home teams leading by five runs after six full innings had a 26-1 (.963) game record - the sole home team loss was sustained by the Oakland Athletics in series 623 Game 4 (in the 1992 MLB Semifinals or American League Championship Series) to the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. In the history of MLB best-of-7 playoff games from 1905 through the 2009 Finals, home teams leading by four runs after seven full innings had a perfect 62-0 (1.000) game record. This record is now 62-1 after the unprecedented Yankee comeback in series 1119 Game 1.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2010 regular season, the Texas Rangers finished five games behind the New York Yankees. From 1905 through the 2009 MLB Finals, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by five regular-season games, they have posted a 3-3 (.500) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1119 is the MLB-leading 48th best-of-7 playoff series for the New York Yankees, and the first for the Texas Rangers. In best-of-7 playoff series, the New York Yankees have a 34-13 series record, a 7-1 Semifinals-round series record, and a 29-18 Game 1 record, while the Texas Rangers have series 1119 as their debut best-of-7 MLB playoff series. Series 1119 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers. The Texas Rangers debuted as the Texas Rangers in April 1972, and are only now experiencing their first best-of-7 MLB playoff action: This best-of-7 playoff debut after their 39th regular season was exceeded among MLB teams only by the Cincinnati Reds, which debuted in 1890 but reached best-of-7 MLB playoff action for the first time only after their 50th season (in series 34, the 1939 World Series), and by the St. Louis Browns, which debuted in 1902 but reached best-of-7 MLB playoff action for the first time only after their 43rd season (in series 51, the 1944 World Series).