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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
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Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
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All | Home Games | Road Games
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All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2013 MLB Finals round - Series 1220.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox

Schedule and 2013 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 97-65, St. Louis 97-65
Game 1 on Wednesday, 23 October: St. Louis loses at Boston, 8-runs-1
Game 2 on Thursday, 24 October: St. Louis wins at Boston, 4-runs-2
Game 3 on Saturday, 26 October: Boston loses at St. Louis, 5-runs-4
Game 4 on Sunday, 27 October: Boston wins at St. Louis, 4-runs-2
Game 5 on Monday, 28 October: Boston wins at St. Louis, 3-runs-1
Game 6 on Wednesday, 30 October: St. Louis loses at Boston, 6-runs-1

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-runs-1 for a 4-games-2 win of MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220. With the series 1220 win, the Boston Red Sox improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 11-9 overall and 7-4 (with an active three-series winning streak) in the MLB Finals. With the series 1220 loss, the St. Louis Cardinals see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 17-13 overall and 11-8 in the MLB Finals. The win order for the victorious Boston Red Sox in series 1220 was WLLWWW: Series 1220 thus becomes the second MLB Finals series (with series 905, won by the Florida Marlins in 2003), the fourth MLB series (all rounds), and the 31st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow this win order to completion. Other Boston teams to win a best-of-7 playoff series WLLWWW were the NHL Boston Bruins in series 775 (in the 1999 Preliminary round) and the NBA Boston Celtics in series 195 (in the 1968 NBA Quarterfinals). The 14 total runs scored by the St. Louis Cardinals in series 1220 are the fewest by one team in a best-of-7 MLB Finals lasting six games since series 51, in which the St. Louis Cardinals held the St. Louis Browns to 12 runs in the 1944 MLB Finals. The 14 total runs scored by the St. Louis Cardinals in series 1220 are the fewest by one team in a best-of-7 MLB series (all rounds) lasting six games since series 1219, in which the St. Louis Cardinals held the Los Angeles Dodgers to 13 runs in the 2013 MLB Semifinals. The fewest total runs scored by one team in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds) lasting six games was nine, in series 14 by the Boston Red Sox in the 1918 MLB Finals (the previous best-of-7 MLB Finals series clinched at home by the Boston Red Sox).

After Game 5: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-runs-1 to take a 3-games-2 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Red Sox have a 3-2 series record and a 2-3 Game 6 record. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 7-2 series record and a 7-2 Game 6 record (with a 7-0 Game 7 record upon winning Game 6 in this situation). In best-of-7 MLB Finals, the last (and only) series in which a team posted a WLLWW @ HHVVV win/site order through the first five games but lost the series was series 19, in which the New York Yankees did so but lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1926 MLB Finals. In best-of-7 MLB Finals, the last series in which a team posted a WLLWW @ HHVVV win/site order through the first five games and won the series was series 165, in which the St. Louis Cardinals did so and bested the New York Yankees in the 1964 MLB Finals. So it is that the 1926 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals, while the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 Boston Red Sox.

After Game 4: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-runs-2 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Boston Red Sox have a 1-4 series record (with the sole win occurring in the last such series – series 1218 over the Detroit Tigers in the 2013 MLB Semifinals) and a 3-2 Game 5 record, while the St. Louis Cardinals have a 13-2 series record and a 7-8 Game 5 record. Road teams such as the Boston Red Sox in series 1220 Game 4 which trailed by one run after 4.0 innings had a 43-96 (.309) game record. The Boston Red Sox have posted a win/site order of WLLW @ HHVV through the first four games of series 1220. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, the last team to post that win/site order through four games and win the series was the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals in series 165, while the last team to post that win/site order through four games and lose the series was the 1975 Boston Red Sox in series 306. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds), the last two teams to post that win/site order through four games lost those series (the New York Mets in series 988, in the 2006 MLB Semifinals; the Milwaukee Brewers in series 1153, in the 2011 MLB Semifinals – both losses were to the St. Louis Cardinals).

After Game 3: The St. Louis Cardinals hosted and defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-runs-4 on a run in the bottom of the ninth inning, thereby taking a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 13-4 series record and an 8-9 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Red Sox have a 2-5 series record and a 2-5 Game 4 record. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, teams such as St. Louis which post a LWW @ VVH win/site order through three games have an 8-2 series record: Among the eight winners and setting a favorable precedent for the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals are the 1915 Boston Red Sox (series 11) and the 1926 St. Louis Cardinals (series 19); the two losers were the New York Yankees in 1960 (series 137) and 1964 (series 165, to the St. Louis Cardinals – so it is that the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 Boston Red Sox). The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to post a LWW @ VVH win/site order through three games of a best-of-7 playoff series was the NHL Boston Bruins in the 2013 NHL Finals (series 1202) – the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Bruins in that series, and thus set a favorable precedent for the 2013 Boston Red Sox by so doing. Upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals when winning Game 4 have a 4-4 series record; upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals when losing Game 4 have a perfect 9-0 series record (five with home-field advantage, four without).

After Game 2: The St. Louis Cardinals visited and defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-runs-2 to tie MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Boston Red Sox have a 6-5 series record and a 5-6 Game 3 record, while the St. Louis Cardinals have a 14-5 series record and a 14-5 Game 3 record (with an active five-Game 3 winning streak and a 10-1 record in their last eleven such Game 3s). In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, teams such as the Boston Red Sox with a win/site order of WL @ HH after two games have a 12-12 series record with an active three-series winning streak: Offering favorable ironic precedents for Boston by starting WL @ HH and winning the MLB Finals are the St. Louis Cardinals in series 1154 (the 2011 MLB Finals) and the St. Louis Cardinals in series 165 (the 1964 MLB Finals); offering favorable ironic precedents for St. Louis by starting WL @ HH and losing the MLB Finals are the St. Louis Cardinals in series 201 (the 1968 MLB Finals), the Boston Red Sox in series 306 (the 1975 MLB Finals), and the Boston Braves in series 71 (the 1948 MLB Finals). The series 1220 Game 2-winning St. Louis Cardinals trailed by one run as late as after 6.0 innings: In the 920 best-of-7 format MLB playoff games prior to series 1220 Game 2, road teams trailing by one run after 6.0 innings had a 25-82 (.234) game record. Series 1220 Game 2 inning 1 ended at 45 innings the streak of consecutive best-of-7 MLB playoff innings during which the Boston Red Sox led the St. Louis Cardinals at some point in each inning without once trailing. St. Louis in series 1220 Game 2 took a 1-run-nil lead in the fourth inning: Series 1220 Game 2 inning 4 thus ended at 48 innings the streak of consecutive best-of-7 MLB playoff innings during which the St. Louis Cardinals had not held an in-game lead over the Boston Red Sox. In twenty best-of-7 MLB playoff games between the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals, series 1220 Game 2 is only the fourth in which both teams held an in-game lead. Series 1220 Game 2 ends the Boston Red Sox’ best-of-7 MLB Finals game winning streak at nine games, five short of the MLB-longest 14-game best-of-7 MLB Finals winning streak by the New York Yankees (series 722 [1996 MLB Finals] Games 3-6, series 772 [1998 MLB Finals], series 797 [1999 MLB Finals], series 822 [2000 MLB Finals] Games 1-2).

After Game 1: The Boston Red Sox hosted and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 8-runs-1 to take a 1-game-nil lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Red Sox have a 6-5 series record and a 4-7 Game 7 record. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 9-8 series record and a 10-7 Game 2 record. Dating back to series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals), the Boston Red Sox have now led the St. Louis Cardinals at some point in each of their last 45 innings against each other in best-of-7 MLB playoff action, without once trailing in any of those 45 innings. Series 1220 Game 1 is the most one-sided MLB Finals Game 1 since series 1022 Game 1, in which the Boston Red Sox defeated the Colorado Rockies 13-runs-1 in the 2007 MLB Finals en route to a four-game sweep. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, teams winning Game 1 by seven or more runs (such as Boston) have an active five-Game 2 winning streak and a 5-4 series record – the last team to win an MLB Finals Game 1 by 7+ runs but lose Game 2 was the Milwaukee Brewers in series 411, in the 1982 MLB Finals to the St. Louis Cardinals. Series 1220 Game 1 extends the Boston Red Sox’ best-of-7 MLB Finals Game 1 winning streak to five first games, and their best-of-7 MLB Finals game winning streak to nine games. Series 1220 Game 1 ends the St. Louis Cardinals’ best-of-7 MLB Game 1 winning streak at three first games.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2013 MLB regular season, Boston finished tied with St. Louis in terms of regular season record (97-65 each). From 1905 through the 2013 MLB Semifinals round, inclusive, the MLB team with home field advantage in such a situation (Boston) posted a 4-1 (.800) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220 is the 30th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for St. Louis, and the 20th for Boston. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, St. Louis has a 17-12 series record, an 11-7 Finals-round series record, and a 12-17 Game 1 record (with an active three-Game 1 winning streak), while Boston has a 10-9 series record, a 6-4 Finals-round record, and an 11-8 Game 1 record. Series 1220 is the fourth best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between St. Louis and Boston: St. Louis won series 59 (the 1946 MLB Finals) and 186 (the 1967 MLB Finals); Boston won series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals).