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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2015 NHL Finals round - Series 1268.
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Schedule and 2014-15 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 50-24-8=108pts, Chicago 48-28-6=102pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 03 June: Chicago wins at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1
Game 2 on Saturday, 06 June: Chicago loses at Tampa Bay, 4-goals-3
Game 3 on Monday, 08 June: Tampa Bay wins at Chicago, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 10 June: Tampa Bay loses at Chicago, 2-goals-1
Game 5 on Saturday, 13 June: Chicago wins at Tampa Bay, 2-goals-1
Game 6 on Monday, 15 June: Tampa Bay loses at Chicago, 2-goals-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Chicago Blackhawks hosted and shut out the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-nil to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1268 victory. With the series 1268 win, the Chicago Blackhawks improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 42-41 overall and 4-6 in the Finals round. With the series 1268 loss, the Tampa Bay Lightning see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 10-7 overall and 1-1 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Chicago Blackhawks in series 1268 was WLLWWW: Series 1268 thus becomes the third NHL Finals-round series, the 22nd NHL series (all rounds), and the 33rd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. With the series 1268 Game 6 victory, the Chicago Blackhawks win their 17th consecutive best-of-7 NHL playoff series upon leading 3-games-2, and win their tenth consecutive best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 6 upon leading 3-games-2. The series 1268 win order by the victorious Chicago Blackhawks of WLLWWW matches their WLLWWW win order of series 1202, in which they won the 2013 NHL Finals.

After Game 5: The Chicago Blackhawks visited and topped the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1268 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 21-3 (with an active 16-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 17-7 (with an active nine-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 6 record of 4-2. The visiting Chicago Blackhawks in series 1268 Game 5 scored the first goal of the game in the seventh minute of the game: The last time that the Chicago Blackhawks on the road scored the first goal of the game in the seventh minute of a best-of-7 NHL playoff game was in series 1202 Game 4, in Boston against the Bruins en route to a high-scoring 6-goals-5 overtime win in the 2013 NHL Finals. The last best-of-7 NHL playoff series which the Chicago Blackhawks lost upon having led 3-games-2 was series 238, in the 1971 NHL Finals against the Montreal Canadiens. After five games of series 1268, the win/site order for the leading Chicago Blackhawks is WLLWW @ VVHHV: In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams which have posted that WLLWW @ VVHHV win/site order have a 12-5 series record - all dozen series victories came through Game 6 wins; none came through a Game 6 loss (putatively at home) followed by a Game 7 road win.

After Game 4: The Chicago Blackhawks hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1268 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-3 and a Game 5 record of 3-5, while the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 18-16 (with an active eight-series winning streak) and a Game 5 record of 19-15. The Tampa Bay Lightning in series 1268 become only the second NHL team in a best-of-7 Finals series to post a win/site order of LWWL @ HHVV through the first four games. In the 1999 NHL Finals, the Dallas Stars did so against the Buffalo Sabres, and won Games 5-6 to win the 1999 NHL championship in series 787.

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Lightning visited and defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1268 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 3-2 and a Game 4 record of 1-4 (with an active three-Game 4 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 13-18 and a Game 4 record of 21-10. In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals, teams such as the Tampa Bay Lightning which post a win/site order through three games of LWW @ HHV have a series record of 5-0 (1.000).

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Lightning hosted and defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 4-goals-3 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1268 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 6-4 and a Game 3 record of 5-5, while the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 19-12 and a Game 3 record of 16-15. Teams such as the Tampa Bay Lightning which post a win/site order of LW @ HH have a 0-6 Game 3 record in the 2015 NHL playoffs . . . but an active six-series winning streak in best-of-7 NHL Finals series (with the last in 2004, by the Tampa Bay Lightning).

After Game 1: The Chicago Blackhawks visited and topped the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1268 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Chicago Blackhawks have a series record of 25-9 and a Game 2 record of 19-15. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a series record of 5-5 and a Game 2 record of 7-3. Chicago trailed the Lightning in Tampa by a goal as late as 13:27 into the third period of series 1268 Game 1, but won the game. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2014, inclusive, road teams down a goal as late as 13:27 into the third period had a game record of only 66-556 (.106).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2014-15 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning finished six points ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks. From 1939 through the 2015 NHL Semifinals, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by six regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 20-8 (.714) with an active eight-series winning streak in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1268 is the 17th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the 83rd for the Chicago Blackhawks. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Lightning have an all-rounds series record of 10-6, a Finals-round series record of 1-0, and a Game 1 record of 6-10, while the Chicago Blackhawks have an all-rounds series record of 41-41, a Finals-round series record of 3-6, and a Game 1 record of 34-48. Series 1268 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Chicago Blackhawks.