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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2016 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1315.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors

Schedule and 2015-16 Results
Regular Season Records: Golden State 73-9, Oklahoma City 55-27
Game 1 on Monday, 16 May: Oklahoma City wins at Golden State, 108-pts-102
Game 2 on Wednesday, 18 May: Oklahoma City loses at Golden State, 118-pts-91
Game 3 on Sunday, 22 May: Golden State loses at Oklahoma City, 133-pts-105
Game 4 on Tuesday, 24 May: Golden State loses at Oklahoma City, 118-pts-94
Game 5 on Thursday, 26 May: Oklahoma City loses at Golden State, 120-pts-111
Game 6 on Saturday, 28 May: Golden State wins at Oklahoma City, 108-pts-101
Game 7 on Monday, 30 May: Oklahoma City loses at Golden State, 96-pts-88

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Golden State Warriors hosted and defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 96-pts-88 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1315 victory. With the series 1315 win, the Golden State Warriors improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 14-10 overall (with an active seven-series winning streak befitting a defending NBA champion) and 3-2 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1315 loss, the Oklahoma City Thunder see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 10-6 overall and 1-3 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Golden State Warriors in series 1315 was LWLLWWW: Series 1315 thus becomes the third NBA Semifinals-round series, the sixth NBA series (all rounds), and the 22nd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Golden State trailed series 1315 Game 7 at home by six points; in the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947, inclusive, home teams down six points at halftime had a game record of 30-55 (.353). Through four games of series 1315, the Golden State Warriors had posted an LWLL @ HHVV win/site order against the Oklahoma City Thunder. In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series since 1947, inclusive, teams with an LWLL @ HHVV win/site order had a 5-29 (.147) series record, teams with an LWLL win order irrespective of site had a 5-53 (.056) series record, and teams trailing 3-games-1 irrespective of win/site order had a 9-223 (.039) series record.

After Game 6: The Golden State Warriors visited and defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 108-pts-101 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1315 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Golden State Warriors have a Game 7 record of 1-3, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have a Game 7 record of 2-0. The Golden State Warriors have a home-court Game 7 record of 1-1 (.500), while the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their first Game 7 on the road as the Oklahoma City Thunder. Of the two Golden State seventh games at home, the win occurred in series 304 (in the 1975 NBA Semifinals over the visiting Chicago Bulls, which launched the Warriors into their four-game NBA Finals sweep and the 1975 NBA championship), while the loss occurred in series 319 (in the 1976 NBA Semifinals to the visiting Phoenix Suns, which ended the Golden State title defense). Series 1315 Game 6 is the 100th best-of-7 NBA game in which the road team trailed by eight points after three quarters; in the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games since 1947 prior to series 1315 Game 6, inclusive, road teams down eight points after three quarters had a game record of 17-82 (.172). In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series since 1947, inclusive, home teams irrespective of win/site order have a Game 7 record of 100-24 (.806) in all rounds, and 25-8 (.758) in the NBA Semifinals.

After Game 5: The Golden State Warriors hosted and bested the Oklahoma City Thunder 120-pts-111 to reduce the Oklahoma City Thunder best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1315 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 5-0 and a Game 6 record of 4-1 (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 1-3 (with an active three-series losing streak) and a Game 6 record of 3-1. The Golden State Warriors, with a win/site order of LWLLW @ HHVVH thus far in series 1315, are attempting to emulate the Houston Rockets in series 1280, who also followed this win/site order through five games, won Game 6 on the road, and won Game 7 at home to defeat the Los Angeles Clippers in the 2015 NBA Quarterfinals.

After Game 4: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and outscored the Golden State Warriors 118-pts-94 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1315 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 4-0 and a Game 5 record of 3-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 0-6 and a Game 5 record of 0-6. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which a team such as the Oklahoma City Thunder in series 1315 posts a WLWW @ VVHH win/site order, said team has a 29-5 series record. But one of the five series losses occurred in the last such series (series 1280), in which the Los Angeles Clippers lost Game 5 on the road, Game 6 at home, and Game 7 on the road to lose their 2015 NBA Quarterfinals series to the Houston Rockets. The Clippers' loss in series 1280 broke a 13-series winning streak by teams opening their best-of-7 NBA playoff series with a WLWW @ VVHH win/site order. If the Oklahoma City Thunder, which finished eighteen regular-season games behind the Golden State Warriors, do defeat the Warriors in series 1315, then series 1315 would become the largest best-of-7 NBA playoff series upset (in terms of regular-season games differential) since the largest-ever such upset - series 1009 (in which the Golden State Warriors themselves finished 25 regular-seaon games behind the Dallas Mavericks but defeated Dallas in their 2007 NBA Preliminary-round series).

After Game 3: The Oklahoma City Thunder hosted and bested the Golden State Warriors 133-pts-105 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1315 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 4 record of 2-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 4-7 and a Game 4 record of 7-4 (with an active four-Game 4 winning streak).

After Game 2: The Golden State Warriors hosted and topped the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-pts-91 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1315 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 8-6 and a Game 3 record of 5-9 (with an active four-Game 3 losing streak), while the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 5-3 (with an active four-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 2-6.

After Game 1: The Oklahoma City Thunder visited and topped the Golden State Warriors 108-pts-102 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1315 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a series record of 6-2 and a Game 2 record of 4-4 (with an active three-Game 2 losing streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 2-7 and a Game 2 record of 5-4. Oklahoma City trailed the Warriors in Oakland by 13 points at halftime of series 1315 Game 1, but rallied for the victory. Prior to series 1315 Game 1, road teams in best-of-7 NBA playoff games down 13 points at halftime had a game record of only 2-50 (.038).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2015-16 NBA regular season, the Golden State Warriors finished 18 games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. From 1947 through the 2016 NBA Quarterfinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 18 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 5-0 (1.000) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1315 is the 24th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Golden State Warriors, and the 16th for the Oklahoma City Thunder. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Golden State Warriors have an all-rounds series record of 13-10 (with an active six-series winning streak befitting a defending NBA champion), a Semifinals-round series record of 2-2, and a Game 1 record of 14-9 (with an active seven-Game 1 winning streak), while the Oklahoma City Thunder have an all-rounds series record of 10-5, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-2, and a Game 1 record of 8-7. Series 1315 is the first best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Golden State Warriors and the Oklahoma City Thunder.