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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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SEARCH RESULTS
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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2016 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 1296.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals

Schedule and 2015-16 Results
Regular Season Records: Washington 56-18-8=120pts, Pittsburgh 48-26-8=104pts
Game 1 on Thursday, 28 April: Pittsburgh loses at Washington, 4-goals-3 (OT)
Game 2 on Saturday, 30 April: Pittsburgh wins at Washington, 2-goals-1
Game 3 on Monday, 02 May: Washington loses at Pittsburgh, 3-goals-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 04 May: Washington loses at Pittsburgh, 3-goals-2 (OT)
Game 5 on Saturday, 07 May: Pittsburgh loses at Washington, 3-goals-1
Game 6 on Tuesday, 10 May: Washington loses at Pittsburgh, 4-goals-3 (OT)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and bested the Washington Capitals 4-goals-3 in overtime to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1296 victory. With the series 1296 win, the Pittsburgh Penguins improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 31-22 overall and 9-10 in the Quarterfinals round. With the series 1296 loss, the Washington Capitals see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 13-24 overall and 2-10 in the Quarterfinals round. The win order for the victorious Pittsburgh Penguins in series 1296 was LWWWLW: Series 1296 thus becomes the eighth NHL Quarterfinals-round series, the 21st NHL series (all rounds), and the 49th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1296 Game 6 is the fourth best-of-7 NHL playoff game in which the home team took a 3-goals-nil lead, the visitors tied it 3-goals-all, and the home team won the game in overtime. The previous three games were series 113 Game 5 (in which the Montreal Canadiens defeated and ousted the New York Rangers in the 1957 NHL Semifinals), series 296 Game 4 (in which the New York Islanders defeated the Philadelphia Flyers in the 1975 NHL Semifinals), and series 1069 Game 3 (in which the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Detroit Red Wings in the 2009 NHL Semifinals).

After Game 5: The Washington Capitals hosted and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-goals-1 to reduce the Pittsburgh Penguins best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1296 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 10-7 and a Game 6 record of 9-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 2-10 and a Game 6 record of 6-6 (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak).

After Game 4: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Washington Capitals 3-goals-2 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1296 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 10-3 and a Game 5 record of 8-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 2-6 and a Game 5 record of 4-4. The Pittsburgh Penguins have posted a win/site order of LWWW @ VVHH through the first four games of series 1296. In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through the 2016 NHL Preliminary round, inclusive, teams posting a LWWW @ VVHH win/site order have a 31-1 series record. The sole loss was sustained by the Detroit Red Wings, in series 1198 to the Chicago Blackhawks in their 2013 NHL Quarterfinals series; Chicago would win the 2013 NHL championship.

After Game 3: The Pittsburgh Penguins hosted and defeated the Washington Capitals 3-goals-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1296 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 12-7 and a Game 4 record of 8-11. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 6-7 and a Game 4 record of 7-6 (with an active three-Game 4 winning streak). Teams such as Pittsburgh which post a LWW @ VVH win/site order in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series have an active three-series losing streak and four-Game 4 losing streak. The Pittsburgh Penguins themselves upon leading a best-of-7 NHL playoff series LWW @ VVH have a 0-2 Game 4 record but a 2-0 series record.

After Game 2: The Pittsburgh Penguins visited and defeated the Washington Capitals 2-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1296 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 9-13 and a Game 3 record of 10-12, while the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 12-13 and a Game 3 record of 15-12.

After Game 1: The Washington Capitals hosted and bested the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-goals-3 in overtime to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1296 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Capitals have a series record of 6-15 and a Game 2 record of 8-13. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a series record of 12-15 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 2 record of 15-12.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2015-16 NHL regular season, the Washington Capitals finished 16 points ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins. From 1939 through the 2016 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 16 regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 11-3 (.786) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1296 is the 37th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Washington Capitals, and the 53rd for the Pittsburgh Penguins. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have an all-rounds series record of 13-23, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 2-9 (with an active four-series losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 21-15, while the Pittsburgh Penguins have an all-rounds series record of 30-22, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 8-10, and a Game 1 record of 25-27. Series 1296 is the ninth best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pittsburgh has won seven of the eight previous best-of-7 NHL playoff series between the Penguins and Washington, including the last five such series; the sole Capitals victory occurred in series 652, in the 1994 NHL Preliminary round.