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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2019 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1417.
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals

Schedule and 2019 Results
Regular Season Records: St. Louis 91-71, Washington 93-69
Game 1 on Friday, 11 October: Washington wins at St. Louis, 2-runs-nil
Game 2 on Saturday, 12 October: Washington wins at St. Louis, 3-runs-1
Game 3 on Monday, 14 October: St. Louis loses at Washington, 8-runs-1
Game 4 on Tuesday, 15 October: St. Louis loses at Washington, 7-runs-4

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 4: The Washington Nationals hosted and bested the St. Louis Cardinals 7-runs-4 to complete a 4-games-nil best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1417 victory. With the series 1417 win, the Washington Nationals improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 1-0 overall and 1-0 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1417 loss, the St. Louis Cardinals see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 17-15 overall and 6-7 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Washington Nationals in series 1417 was WWWW: Series 1417 thus becomes the ninth MLB Semifinals-round series, the 30th MLB series (all rounds), and the 235th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Washington tallied all seven of its series 1417 Game 4 runs in the first inning - the highest-scoring first inning of a best-of-7 MLB playoff game since series 123 Game 2, in which the Braves in Milwaukee also tallied seven runs in the bottom of the first inning against the New York Yankees in the 1958 World Series. The six total runs by the St. Louis Cardinals in series 1417 were the fewest runs by one team in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series since the Detroit Tigers scored six total runs in series 1187, in the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants. The one run by the Cardinals in St. Louis in series 1417 was the fewest runs at home in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series since series 938, in which the same Cardinals scored only one run in St. Louis in the 2004 World Series against the Boston Red Sox. Series 1417 is the seventh "annihilation" in best-of-7 MLB playoff series history (in which the swept team never held so much as a single in-game lead), and the first in MLB since the 2015 National League Championship Series in which the New York Mets swept the Chicago Cubs.

After Game 3: The Washington Nationals hosted and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 8-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1417 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Washington Nationals have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 4 record of 0-2. The St. Louis Cardinals in series 1417 have just become the 367th MLB/NBA/NHL team to fall behind 3-games-nil in a best-of-7 playoff series, and aspire to become the sixth MLB/NBA/NHL team and the second MLB team to rally for a 4-games-3 series victory. Through three games of series 1417, the St. Louis Cardinals have tallied a total of two runs, thus tying the 1948 Boston Braves (in series 71, against the Cleveland Indians in the 1948 World Series) and the 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers (in series 179, against the Baltimore Orioles in the 1966 World Series) for the fewest total runs by one team in the first three games of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series. The two total runs by the Cardinals through the first three games of series 1417 breaks a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals (League Championship Series) record for fewest runs (three total runs) by one team through the first three games, set by the 1990 Boston Red Sox (series 573) and tied by the 1998 Atlanta Braves (series 771) and the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays (series 1317). In series 1417, St. Louis has yet to hold an in-game lead against Washington.

After Game 2: The Washington Nationals visited and bested the St. Louis Cardinals 3-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1417 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Washington Nationals have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 3 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 1-6 with an active four-series losing streak and a Game 3 record of 5-2. The sole best-of-7 MLB playoff series victory in the wake of a 2-game-nil deficit by the St. Louis Cardinals occurred in series 457, in which the Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in six games in the 1985 National League Championship Series. St. Louis ended a best-of-7 MLB playoff game scoreless streak of 21 innings in the eighth inning of series 1417 Game 2. The St. Louis Cardinals in series 1417 have become only the fifth MLB team to play Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 MLB playoff series at home but score only one run (any round), and the first team to do so in the MLB Semifinals; good news in that context for St. Louis - of the four previous MLB teams to do so, two rallied to win the series.

After Game 1: The Washington Nationals visited and shut out the St. Louis Cardinals 2-runs-nil to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1417 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Washington Nationals have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 2 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the St. Louis Cardinals have a series record of 9-10 and a Game 2 record of 12-7 with an active four-Game 2 winning streak. Series 1417 Game 1 marks the eighth consecutive road team victory in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff games. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, road teams winning Game 1 by a 2-runs-nil score had a Game 2 record of 0-2 and a series record of 0-2.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2019 MLB regular season, the Washington Nationals finished two games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals. From 1905 through the 2018 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 7-7 (.500) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1417 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Washington Nationals, and the 32nd for the St. Louis Cardinals. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Washington Nationals have an all-rounds series record of 0-0, a Semifinals-round series record of 0-0, and a Game 1 record of 0-0, while the St. Louis Cardinals have an all-rounds series record of 17-14, a Semifinals-round series record of 6-6, and a Game 1 record of 12-19. Series 1417 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals. Series 1417 becomes the first-ever best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Washington Nationals, which began play in their current incarnation in 2005, and which previously played as the old Montreal Expos beginning in 1969 and ending in 2004. In the history of best-of-7 format MLB playoff series, the first team to lead their series opponent by two regular-season games but lose the series was the old Washington Senators (in series 18, to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1925 World Series), while the last team to lead their series opponent by two regular-season games but lose the series was the St. Louis Cardinals (in series 1252, to the San Francisco Giants in the 2014 National League Championship Series).