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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2020 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1449.
Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

Schedule and 2020 Results
Regular Season Records: Tampa Bay 40-20, Houston 29-31
Game 1 on Sunday, 11 October: Houston loses at Tampa Bay, 2-runs-1
Game 2 on Monday, 12 October: Houston loses at Tampa Bay, 4-runs-2
Game 3 on Tuesday, 13 October: Tampa Bay wins at Houston, 5-runs-2
Game 4 on Wednesday, 14 October: Tampa Bay loses at Houston, 4-runs-3
Game 5 on Thursday, 15 October: Tampa Bay loses at Houston, 4-runs-3
Game 6 on Friday, 16 October: Houston wins at Tampa Bay, 7-runs-4
Game 7 on Saturday, 17 October: Houston loses at Tampa Bay, 4-runs-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Tampa Bay Rays hosted and topped the Houston Astros 4-runs-2 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1449 victory. With the series 1449 win, the Tampa Bay Rays improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 2-1 overall and 2-0 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1449 loss, the Houston Astros see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 4-6 overall and 3-4 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Tampa Bay Rays in series 1449 was WWWLLLW: Series 1449 thus becomes the first MLB Semifinals-round series, the first MLB series (all rounds), and the ninth MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Tampa Bay Rays in series 1449 become the first MLB team in a best-of-7 playoff series to win Games 1-3, lose Games 4-6, and then win Game 7 to win the series.

After Game 6: The Houston Astros visited and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-runs-4 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1449 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Tampa Bay Rays have a Game 7 record of 1-0, while the Houston Astros have a Game 7 record of 2-2. The Tampa Bay Rays have a 1-0 Game 7 record at home, having defeated the Boston Red Sox in Game 7 of series 1053 (in the 2008 MLB Semifinals) in Tampa. The Houston Astros have a 1-1 Game 7 record on the road: The win occurred in series 1352 (in the 2017 MLB Finals over the Dodgers in Los Angeles); the loss occurred in series 937 (in the 2004 MLB Semifinals in St. Louis to the Cardinals). The Houston Astros seek to emulate the 2004 Boston Red Sox in series 936 (in the 2004 MLB Semifinals) against the New York Yankees, in which Boston became the first MLB team to trail a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil but win the series 4-games-3. The fifth and latest best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series in which a team surmounted a 3-games-nil deficit for the series win was series 1228, in which the Los Angeles Kings rallied to defeat the San Jose Sharks in the 2014 NHL Preliminary round (en route to the 2014 NHL championship); since then, MLB/NBA/NHL teams with a 3-games-nil best-of-7 playoff series lead have had an active 55-series winning streak.

After Game 5: The Houston Astros hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-runs-3 to reduce the Tampa Bay Rays best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1449 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 6 record of 0-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Houston Astros have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 6 record of 1-1. Only once before have the Tampa Bay Rays led a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2: In series 1053, against the Boston Red Sox in the 2008 MLB Semifinals (won by the Rays in seven games). Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Houston Astros have seen their Game 6 outcome presage their series outcome in both such series in which they have competed (one win; one loss). In best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series in which a team such as Tampa Bay posts a WWWLL @ HHVVV win/site order, the sole favorable precedent for Tampa Bay is provided by the Atlanta Braves in series 796 (in which Atlanta posted a WWWLL @ HHVVV win/site order against the New York Mets and then won Game 6 in Atlanta to win the 1999 National League Championship Series), while the sole favorable precedent for Houston is provided by the Boston Red Sox in series 936 (in which the New York Yankees posted a WWWLL @ HHVVV win/site order against the Boston Red Sox, but Boston won Games 6-7 in the Bronx to win the 2004 American League Championship Series and become the first MLB team to surmount a 3-games-nil deficit in a best-of-7 playoff series to win the series).

After Game 4: The Houston Astros hosted and defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-runs-3 to reduce the Tampa Bay Rays best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1449 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Houston Astros have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 5 record of 0-1. Only once before have the Tampa Bay Rays led a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1: In series 1053, against the Boston Red Sox in the 2008 MLB Semifinals (won by the Rays in seven games). Only once before have the Houston Astros trailed a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1: In series 1383, against the Boston Red Sox in the 2018 MLB Semifinals (won by the Red Sox in five games).

After Game 3: The Tampa Bay Rays visited and bested the Houston Astros 5-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1449 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 4 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 4 record of 0-1. Tampa Bay has never previously led a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil. Once before had the Houston Astros trailed a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-nil, in series 956 against the Chicago White Sox in the 2005 MLB Finals; Houston lost Game 4 and was swept from the 2005 World Series.

After Game 2: The Tampa Bay Rays hosted and defeated the Houston Astros 4-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1449 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 3 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 0-3 and a Game 3 record of 2-1.

After Game 1: The Tampa Bay Rays hosted and defeated the Houston Astros 2-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1449 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Tampa Bay Rays have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 2 record of 0-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Astros have a series record of 3-3 and a Game 2 record of 3-3. The series 1449 Game 1 victory for the Tampa Bay Rays is their first-ever best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 1 win. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-game-nil, the Houston Astros have seen their Game 2 outcome presage their series outcome in all six such series for the Astros (three wins, three losses).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2020 MLB regular season, the Tampa Bay Rays finished eleven games ahead of the Houston Astros. From 1905 through the 2019 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eleven regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 0-1 (.000) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1449 is the third best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Tampa Bay Rays, and the tenth for the Houston Astros. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Tampa Bay Rays have an all-rounds series record of 1-1, a Semifinals-round series record of 1-0, and a Game 1 record of 0-2, while the Houston Astros have an all-rounds series record of 4-5, a Semifinals-round series record of 3-3, and a Game 1 record of 3-6. Series 1449 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros. The only previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the combatants were separated by eleven regular-season games was series 955, in which the St. Louis Cardinals (100-62) led the Houston Astros (89-73) by eleven games in the 2005 regular season, but lost to the Astros in six games in the 2005 MLB Semifinals (in the National League Championship Series); the Astros, for obvious reasons, seek a repeat outcome in series 1449 against the Tampa Bay Rays.