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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2022 NBA Quarterfinals round - Series 1510.
Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns

Schedule and 2021-22 Results:
Regular Season Records: Phoenix 64-18, Dallas 52-30
Game 1 on Monday, 02 May: Dallas loses at Phoenix, 121-pts-114
Game 2 on Wednesday, 04 May: Dallas loses at Phoenix, 129-pts-109
Game 3 on Friday, 06 May: Phoenix loses at Dallas, 103-pts-94
Game 4 on Sunday, 08 May: Phoenix loses at Dallas, 111-pts-101
Game 5 on Tuesday, 10 May: Dallas loses at Phoenix, 110-pts-80
Game 6 on Thursday, 12 May: Phoenix loses at Dallas, 113-pts-86
Game 7 on Sunday, 15 May: Dallas wins at Phoenix, 123-pts-90

After Game 7: The Dallas Mavericks visited and defeated the Phoenix Suns 123-pts-90 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1510 victory. With the series 1510 win, the Dallas Mavericks improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 14-19 overall and 5-6 in the Quarterfinals round. With the series 1510 loss, the Phoenix Suns see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 19-22 overall and 10-10 in the Quarterfinals round. The win order for the victorious Dallas Mavericks in series 1510 was LLWWLWW: Series 1510 thus becomes the third NBA Quarterfinals-round series, the eighth NBA series (all rounds), and the 19th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Dallas led Phoenix 57-pts-27 at halftime of series 1510 Game 7; series 1510 Game 7 thus became only the fourth best-of-7 NBA playoff game in which a team (Phoenix) had fewer points at halftime (27 points) than its deficit against its opponent (30 points): The first three were series 70 Game 2 in the 1948 NBA Finals (with the old Baltimore Bullets (I) down 41-pts-20 at the old Philadelphia Warriors), series 815 Game 5 in the 2000 NBA Quarterfinals (with the Phoenix Suns [again] down 49-pts-23 at Los Angeles vs the Lakers), and series 1347 Game 2 in the 2017 NBA Semifinals (with the Boston Celtics down 72-pts-31 in Boston vs the Cleveland Cavaliers). The 123-pts-90 Dallas win of series 1510 Game 7 presents the second-biggest road best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 7 margin of victory ever, second only to series 69 Game 7 in which the old Philadelphia Warriors defeated the old Bombers in St. Louis 85-pts-46 in the 1948 NBA Semifinals. The sum of the victory margins of the seven series 1510 games was 136 points, which is the most ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series (topping the old mark of 135 points, set in series 1314 by the Cleveland Cavaliers [victor] and Toronto Raptors [vanquished] in their six-game series in the 2016 NBA Semifinals). Dallas led Phoenix by 42 points after three quarters of series 1510 Game 7: This 42-point lead after three quarters is the largest lead ever after three quarters of a best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 7, shattering the old mark of 36 points after three quarters of series 1038 Game 7 (in which the Celtics in Boston led the Atlanta Hawks 79-pts-43 after three quarters in their 2008 NBA Preliminary round Game 7).

After Game 6: The Dallas Mavericks hosted and defeated the Phoenix Suns 113-pts-86 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1510 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Phoenix Suns have a Game 7 record of 4-5, while the Dallas Mavericks have a Game 7 record of 4-3. The Phoenix Suns have a 3-2 Game 7 record at home. The Dallas Mavericks have a 1-3 Game 7 record on the road.

After Game 5: The Phoenix Suns hosted and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 110-pts-80 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1510 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 10-3 (with an active six-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 8-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 0-9 and a Game 6 record of 2-7. For the second straight playoff season, the Phoenix Suns via series 1510 have won a best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 5 by 30 points upon having been tied 2-games-all: In series 1472 in the 2021 NBA Preliminary round, Phoenix did likewise against the Los Angeles Lakers, en route to a series victory.

After Game 4: The Dallas Mavericks hosted and bested the Phoenix Suns 111-pts-101 to knot best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1510 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 8-9 and a Game 5 record of 8-9, while the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 7-7 and a Game 5 record of 8-6. In the last fourteen best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which the Phoenix Suns were tied 2-games-all, the Phoenix Game 5 outcome presaged their series outcome (seven wins, seven losses).

After Game 3: The Dallas Mavericks hosted and topped the Phoenix Suns 103-pts-94 to reduce the Phoenix Suns best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1510 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 13-4 and a Game 4 record of 9-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 3-12 and a Game 4 record of 7-8.

After Game 2: The Phoenix Suns hosted and topped the Dallas Mavericks 129-pts-109 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1510 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 6-3 and a Game 3 record of 3-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 1-9 (with an active four-series losing streak) and a Game 3 record of 6-4. With the Phoenix 129-pts-109 victory in series 1510 Game 2, series 1510 becomes the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series in which the home team won Game 1 by 6-8 points and Game 2 by 19-21 points for a 2-games-nil series lead; in the previous two such series, the team leading 2-games-nil went on to win the series. The two previous series were series 642 (won by the Chicago Bulls in the 1993 NBA Quarterfinals) and series 1138 (won by the Miami Heat in the 2011 NBA Preliminary round).

After Game 1: The Phoenix Suns hosted and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 121-pts-114 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1510 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Phoenix Suns have a series record of 15-6 and a Game 2 record of 9-12. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 7-15 and a Game 2 record of 12-10. With their series 1510 Game 1 victory, the Phoenix Suns extend their best-of-7 NBA playoffs Game 1 winning streak to six Game 1s.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2021-22 NBA regular season, the Phoenix Suns finished twelve games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks. From 1947 through the 2022 NBA Preliminary round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by twelve regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 17-6 (.739) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1510 is the 41st best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Phoenix Suns, and the 33rd for the Dallas Mavericks. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Phoenix Suns have an all-rounds series record of 19-21, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 10-9, and a Game 1 record of 21-19 (with an active five-Game 1 winning streak), while the Dallas Mavericks have an all-rounds series record of 13-19, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 4-6, and a Game 1 record of 10-22. Series 1510 is the third best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks. In their previous best-of-7 NBA playoff series meetings, the Phoenix Suns defeated the Dallas Mavericks in six games (in series 949, in the 2005 NBA Quarterfinals), while Dallas defeated Phoenix in six games (in series 985, in the 2006 NBA Semifinals).