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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
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2022 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1513.
Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors

Schedule and 2021-22 Results
Regular Season Records: Golden State 53-29, Dallas 52-30
Game 1 on Wednesday, 18 May: Dallas loses at Golden State, 112-pts-87
Game 2 on Friday, 20 May: Dallas loses at Golden State, 126-pts-117
Game 3 on Sunday, 22 May: Golden State wins at Dallas, 109-pts-100
Game 4 on Tuesday, 24 May: Golden State loses at Dallas, 119-pts-109
Game 5 on Thursday, 26 May: Dallas loses at Golden State, 120-pts-110

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Golden State Warriors hosted and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 120-pts-110 to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1513 victory. With the series 1513 win, the Golden State Warriors improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 28-12 overall and 7-2 (with an active six-series Semifinals-round winning streak) in the Semifinals round. With the series 1513 loss, the Dallas Mavericks see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 14-20 overall and 2-3 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Golden State Warriors in series 1513 was WWWLW: Series 1513 thus becomes the eleventh NBA Semifinals-round series, the 43rd NBA series (all rounds), and the 101st MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion.

After Game 4: The Dallas Mavericks hosted and bested the Golden State Warriors 119-pts-109 to drop the Golden State Warriors best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1513 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 11-1 and a Game 5 record of 7-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 0-11 and a Game 5 record of 3-8.

After Game 3: The Golden State Warriors visited and vanquished the Dallas Mavericks 109-pts-100 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1513 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 11-0 and a Game 4 record of 7-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 0-4 and a Game 4 record of 3-1. In the history of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, teams trailing 3-games-nil have a 5-380 (.013) series record (4-196 (.020) in the NHL; 0-146 (.000) in the NBA).

After Game 2: The Golden State Warriors hosted and outscored the Dallas Mavericks 126-pts-117 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1513 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 15-1 (with an active ten-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 11-5. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 2-9 and a Game 3 record of 7-4. The Golden State Warriors trailed the visiting Dallas Mavericks by fourteen halftime points in series 1513 Game 2, but rallied for the victory: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games beginning in 1947, home teams down fourteen points at halftime had a game record of 2-32 (.059); so it is that the Golden State Warriors achieved a Grade-A (.000-.099) comeback in series 1513 Game 2. Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Golden State Warriors suffered their only series loss in series 1316 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 NBA Finals. Trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Dallas Mavericks achieved their only series wins in series 946 (over the Houston Rockets in seven games in the 2005 NBA Preliminary round) and in series 1510 (over the Phoenix Suns in seven games in the just-concluded 2022 NBA Quarterfinals round).

After Game 1: The Golden State Warriors hosted and defeated the Dallas Mavericks 112-pts-87 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1513 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Golden State Warriors have a series record of 24-4 (with an active 13-series winning streak) and a Game 2 record of 16-12. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Dallas Mavericks have a series record of 8-15 and a Game 2 record of 12-11. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Golden State Warriors, their Game 1 outcome has presaged their series outcome in their last 14 series (13 wins, one loss) in the wake of their series 1513 Game 1 victory over the visiting Dallas Mavericks.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2021-22 NBA regular season, the Golden State Warriors finished one game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks. From 1947 through the 2022 NBA Quarterfinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by one regular-season game, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 20-24 (.455) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1513 is the 40th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Golden State Warriors, and the 34th for the Dallas Mavericks. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Golden State Warriors have an all-rounds series record of 27-12, a Semifinals-round series record of 6-2 (with an active five-Semifinals series winning streak), and a Game 1 record of 28-11, while the Dallas Mavericks have an all-rounds series record of 14-19, a Semifinals-round series record of 2-2, and a Game 1 record of 10-23. Series 1513 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks. The previous best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between these two teams occurred in series 1009, in which Golden State defeated Dallas in the 2007 NBA Preliminary round in the largest upset series victory in best-of-7 NBA playoff history (Golden State trailed Dallas by 25 games in the 2006-07 regular season; never previously had a team trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series opponent by 25 or more regular-season games prevailed over that opponent).