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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2023 MLB Finals round - Series 1550.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers

Schedule and 2023 Results
Regular Season Records: Texas 90-72, Arizona 84-78
Game 1 on Friday, 27 October: Arizona loses at Texas, 6-runs-5 (11 innings)
Game 2 on Saturday, 28 October: Arizona wins at Texas, 9-runs-1
Game 3 on Monday, 30 October: Texas wins at Arizona, 3-runs-1
Game 4 on Tuesday, 31 October: Texas wins at Arizona, 11-runs-7
Game 5 on Wednesday, 01 November: Texas wins at Arizona, 5-runs-nil

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The Texas Rangers visited and shut out the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-runs-nil to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1550 victory. With the series 1550 win, the Texas Rangers improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the Finals round. With the series 1550 loss, the Arizona Diamondbacks see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the Finals round. The win order for the victorious Texas Rangers in series 1550 was WLWWW: Series 1550 thus becomes the eleventh MLB Finals-round series, the 18th MLB series (all rounds), and the 92nd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. Series 1550 Game 5 becomes the eighth best-of-7 MLB playoff game in which the sole run through eight full innings was tallied in the top of the seventh inning; in all eight of those games has the road team held on to win. Series 1550: The Texas Rangers win their first MLB Finals; the Arizona Diamondbacks lose their first MLB Finals. The Texas Rangers in Fall 2023 have won every best-of-7 MLB playoff road game en route to the 2023 MLB championship.

After Game 4: The Texas Rangers visited and outscored the Arizona Diamondbacks 11-runs-7 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1550 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Texas Rangers have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-2. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a series record of 0-0 and a Game 5 record of 0-0. The visiting Texas Rangers led series 1550 Game 4 by a 10-runs-nil score after 2.5 innings: The only two best-of-7 MLB playoff games more lopsided in favor of the road team after 2.5 innings were series 201 Game 6, in which the Detroit Tigers led the Cardinals in St. Louis 12-runs-nil after 2.5 innings in the 1968 MLB Finals, and series 1450 Game 3, in which the Los Angeles Dodgers led the Braves in Atlanta 15-runs-nil after 2.5 innings in the 2020 National League Championship Series. The two previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the Texas Rangers led 3-games-1 were series 1119 (against the New York Yankees in the 2010 American League Championship Series) and series 1152 (against the Detroit Tigers in the 2011 American League Championship Series); in each case, Texas lost Game 5, and then won Game 6 to win the series.

After Game 3: The Texas Rangers visited and defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-runs-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1550 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Texas Rangers have a series record of 3-0 and a Game 4 record of 2-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-0. Only once before had the Arizona Diamondbacks trailed 2-games-1 in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series: In series 1549, Arizona trailed the Philadelphia Phillies 2-games-1 in the 2023 MLB Semifinals; Arizona won Game 4 and won the series in seven games.

After Game 2: The Arizona Diamondbacks visited and defeated the Texas Rangers 9-runs-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1550 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Texas Rangers have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 3 record of 1-1, while the Arizona Diamondbacks have a series record of 1-0 and a Game 3 record of 1-0. The nine runs plated by the Arizona Diamondbacks in series 1550 Game 2 are the most in a best-of-7 MLB Finals Game 2 since series 1418 Game 2, in which the Washington Nationals defeated the Astros in Houston 12-runs-3 in Game 2 of the 2019 MLB Finals. The sole previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the Arizona Diamondbacks were tied 1-game-all after two games was series 846, against the Atlanta Braves in the 2001 National League Championship Series. Series 1550 Game 2 is the first MLB Finals road game victory by the Arizona Diamondbacks in five such games. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams such as the Texas Rangers in series 1550 which win Game 1 by one run and then lose Game 2 by eight or more runs had a 0-2 Game 3 record, but a 2-0 series record: The two previous such series were series 649 (in which the Philadelphia Phillies did so against the Atlanta Braves in the 1993 National League Championship Series) and series 904 (in which the old Florida Marlins did so against the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 National League Championship Series).

After Game 1:The Texas Rangers hosted and bested the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-runs-5 (11 innings) to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1550 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Texas Rangers have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 2 record of 2-0. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a series record of 1-1 and a Game 2 record of 0-2. The Texas Rangers trailed the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks by two runs as late as after eight innings of 2023 MLB Finals Game 1, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff games from 1905 through the 2023 MLB Semifinals, inclusive, home teams down two runs after eight innings had a game record of only 6-90 (.063) - the Texas Rangers thus achieve a grade-A in-game comeback in series 1550 Game 1. Of the six previous MLB games in which the home team trailed by two runs after eight innings of a best-of-7 MLB playoff game but rallied to win the game, the last three involved 1) the Arizona Diamondbacks, in New York against the Yankees in series 847 (2001 MLB Finals) Game 4 which the Yankees won 4-runs-3 in ten innings, 2) the Arizona Diamondbacks, in New York against the Yankees in series 847 (2001 MLB Finals) Game 5 which the Yankees won 3-runs-2 in twelve innings, 3) the Texas Rangers, in St. Louis against the Cardinals in series 1154 (2011 MLB Finals) Game 6 which the Cardinals won 10-runs-9 in eleven innings. Thus, series 1550 Game 1 represented a happy turnabout for the host Texas Rangers, and a hapless troika for the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2023 MLB regular season, the Texas Rangers finished six games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks. From 1905 through the 2023 MLB Semifinals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by six regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 9-6 (.600) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1550 is the sixth best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the Texas Rangers, and the fifth for the Arizona Diamondbacks. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Texas Rangers have an all-rounds series record of 3-2, a Finals-round series record of 0-2, and a Game 1 record of 2-3, while the Arizona Diamondbacks have an all-rounds series record of 3-1, a Finals-round series record of 1-0, and a Game 1 record of 2-2. Series 1550 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers bring a combined nine previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series of experience with them into series 1550, which ties the 2019 Washington Nationals and Houston Astros for the fewest such combined series of experience by the two teams entering an MLB Finals series since the 2010 MLB Finals, when the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers brought a combined eight previous best-of-7 MLB playoff series of experience with them into that series.