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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
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Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2023 NBA Semifinals round - Series 1545.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

Schedule and 2022-23 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 57-25, Miami 44-38
Game 1 on Wednesday, 17 May: Miami wins at Boston, 123-pts-116
Game 2 on Friday, 19 May: Miami wins at Boston, 111-pts-105
Game 3 on Sunday, 21 May: Boston loses at Miami, 128-pts-102
Game 4 on Tuesday, 23 May: Boston wins at Miami, 116-pts-99
Game 5 on Thursday, 25 May: Miami loses at Boston, 110-pts-97
Game 6 on Saturday, 27 May: Boston wins at Miami, 104-pts-103
Game 7 on Monday, 29 May: Miami wins at Boston, 103-pts-84

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 7: The Miami Heat visited and defeated the Boston Celtics 103-pts-84 to complete a 4-games-3 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1545 victory. With the series 1545 win, the Miami Heat improve their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record to 31-14 overall and 7-3 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1545 loss, the Boston Celtics see their best-of-7 NBA playoff series record fall to 74-32 overall and 21-13 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious Miami Heat in series 1545 was WWWLLLW: Series 1545 thus becomes the first NBA Semifinals-round series, the fourth NBA series (all rounds), and the tenth MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. With their series 1545 win, the Miami Heat extend the best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series winning streak by teams having held a 3-games-nil lead to 78 series.

After Game 6: The Boston Celtics visited and outscored the Miami Heat 104-pts-103 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1545 at 3-games-all. When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Boston Celtics have a Game 7 record of 27-9 (with an active four-Game 7 winning streak), while the Miami Heat have a Game 7 record of 6-5. At home, the Boston Celtics have a 22-5 Game 7 record; on the road, the Miami Heat have a 0-2 Game 7 record. The 27 Game 7 wins overall, 36 Game 7 appearances overall, 22 Game 7 home wins, and 27 Game 7 home appearances (all rounds) by the Boston Celtics lead all MLB/NBA/NHL teams in best-of-7 playoff competition (all rounds). In best-of-7 Semifinals play (home and road), the Boston Celtics have an 8-4 Game 7 record, with the eight wins leading all MLB/NBA/NHL teams in best-of-7 Semifinals series, and with the four losses tied for the lead among all MLB/NBA/NHL teams in best-of-7 Semifinals series. In best-of-7 Semifinals play at home, the Boston Celtics have a 6-3 Game 7 record, with the six wins leading all MLB/NBA/NHL teams in best-of-7 Semifinals series, and with the three losses also leading all MLB/NBA/NHL teams in best-of-7 Semifinals series.

After Game 5: The Boston Celtics hosted and defeated the Miami Heat 110-pts-97 to reduce the Miami Heat best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1545 lead to 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Miami Heat have a series record of 10-2 (with an active nine-series winning streak) and a Game 6 record of 8-4 (with an active four-Game 6 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 7-16 and a Game 6 record of 12-11. The Boston Celtics in series 1545 have become the first team in a best-of-7 NBA Semifinals series to force a Game 6 upon having trailed 3-games-nil since series 1116, in which the Orlando Magic did so against Boston in the 2010 NBA Semifinals.

After Game 4: The Boston Celtics visited and defeated the Miami Heat 116-pts-99 to reduce the Miami Heat best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1545 lead to 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Miami Heat have a series record of 15-0 and a Game 5 record of 11-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 2-13 (with an active eight-series losing streak) and a Game 5 record of 8-7. The Boston Celtics trailed the host Miami Heat by six points as late as after one quarter but won: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through 22 May 2023, inclusive, road teams down six points as late as after one quarter had a game record of only 32-136 (.191) - the Boston Celtics thus achieve a grade-B in-game comeback.

After Game 3: The Miami Heat hosted and bested the Boston Celtics 128-pts-102 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1545 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Miami Heat have a series record of 8-0 and a Game 4 record of 5-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 0-6 and a Game 4 record of 2-4. With their series 1545 Game 3 victory, the Miami Heat extend their best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 3 winning streak to four games. In series 1545, the Boston Celtics have become the 394th MLB/NBA/NHL team to fall behind 3-games-nil in a best-of-7 playoff series, and will strive to become the sixth such team to rally for a 4-games-3 victory.

After Game 2: The Miami Heat visited and defeated the Boston Celtics 111-pts-105 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1545 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Miami Heat have a series record of 17-0 and a Game 3 record of 8-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 2-15 and a Game 3 record of 11-6 (with an active five-Game 3 winning streak). Trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-nil, the Boston Celtics have a 2-15 series record; the two Celtics series victories in the wake of such a deficit occurred in series 215 (over the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1969 NBA Finals) and in series 1335 (over the Chicago Bulls in the 2017 NBA Preliminary round). In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series beginning in 1947, teams such as the Miami Heat which open with a win/site order of WW @ VV over an opponent whom they trailed by 13+ regular-season games have a 1-1 series record (in series 211, the old San Francisco Warriors opened WW @ VV over the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1969 NBA Quarterfinals, but lost to the Lakers in six games; in series 693, the Houston Rockets opened WW @ VV over the San Antonio Spurs in the 1995 NBA Semifinals, and defeated the Spurs in six games). The Miami Heat trailed the host Boston Celtics by eight points as late as after three quarters but emerged victorious: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through 18 May 2023, inclusive, road teams down eight points as late as after three quarters had a game record of only 20-94 (.175) - the Miami Heat thus achieve a grade-B in-game comeback.

After Game 1: The Miami Heat visited and bested the Boston Celtics 123-pts-116 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1545 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Miami Heat have a series record of 22-4 and a Game 2 record of 17-9. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have a series record of 14-23 and a Game 2 record of 20-17. With their series 1545 Game 1 victory, the Miami Heat extend their best-of-7 NBA playoff Game 1 winning streak to six games. Visiting Miami outscored host Boston by 21 points in the third quarter: That 21-point differential is the largest best-of-7 Semifinals game third-quarter differential by a road team since series 259, in which the Milwaukee Bucks outscored the Lakers in Los Angeles 31-points-8 (23-point differential) in the third quarter of Game 1 of their 1972 NBA Semifinals series. The Miami Heat trailed the host Boston Celtics in series 1545 Game 1 by nine halftime points, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff games beginning in 1947, road teams down nine points at halftime had a game record of only 12-99 (.108); the Heat thus stage a Grade-B comeback in series 1545 Game 1. Trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 1-game-nil, the Boston Celtics have seen their Game 2 outcome presage their series outcome in their last six such series (three wins, three losses). In the history of best-of-7 NBA playoff series, teams such as the Miami Heat which win Game 1 on the road by seven points have a series record of 7-3 (.700): The last team to win such a series was also the Miami Heat, in series 1541 in the just-concluded 2023 NBA Quarterfinals.

Pre-series assessment: In the 2022-23 NBA regular season, the Boston Celtics finished thirteen games ahead of the Miami Heat. From 1947 through the 2023 NBA Quarterfinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by thirteen regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 14-2 (.875), with an active 12-series winning streak in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1545 is the 106th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the Boston Celtics, and the 45th for the Miami Heat. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Boston Celtics have an all-rounds series record of 74-31, a Semifinals-round series record of 21-12, and a Game 1 record of 68-37, while the Miami Heat have an all-rounds series record of 30-14, a Semifinals-round series record of 6-3, and a Game 1 record of 26-18. Series 1545 is the sixth best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat won three of their previous five best-of-7 NBA playoff series with the Boston Celtics, but Boston defeated Miami in series 1512 (in seven games, in the 2022 NBA Semifinals; so it is that series 1545 constitutes a rematch).