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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

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PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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2023 NHL Quarterfinals round - Series 1529.
Edmonton Oilers vs Vegas Golden Knights

Schedule and 2022-23 Results
Regular Season Records: Vegas 51-22-9=111pts, Edmonton 50-23-9=109pts
Game 1 on Wednesday, 03 May: Edmonton loses at Vegas, 6-goals-4
Game 2 on Saturday, 06 May: Edmonton wins at Vegas, 5-goals-1
Game 3 on Monday, 08 May: Vegas wins at Edmonton, 5-goals-1
Game 4 on Wednesday, 10 May: Vegas loses at Edmonton, 4-goals-1
Game 5 on Friday, 12 May: Edmonton loses at Vegas, 4-goals-3
Game 6 on Sunday, 14 May: Vegas wins at Edmonton, 5-goals-2

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 6: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and defeated the Edmonton Oilers 5-goals-2 to complete a 4-games-2 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1529 victory. With the series 1529 win, the Vegas Golden Knights improve their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record to 9-4 overall and 4-0 in the Quarterfinals round. With the series 1529 loss, the Edmonton Oilers see their best-of-7 NHL playoff series record fall to 33-17 overall and 10-6 in the Quarterfinals round. The win order for the victorious Vegas Golden Knights in series 1529 was WLWLWW: Series 1529 thus becomes the fourth NHL Quarterfinals-round series, the 21st NHL series (all rounds), and the 49th MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The Vegas Golden Knights trailed the host Edmonton Oilers by one goal as late as 4:25 into the second period of series 1529 Game 6, but prevailed: In the history of best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2022, inclusive, road teams down one goal as late as 4:25 into the second period had a game record of only 228-718 (.241) - the Vegas Golden Knights thus achieve a grade-C in-game comeback. The Vegas Golden Knights won series 1529 via a WLWLWW win order; Vegas was also the last NHL team to win a best-of-7 NHL playoff series WLWLWW (over the San Jose Sharks in series 1364, in the 2018 NHL Quarterfinals).

After Game 5: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and topped the Edmonton Oilers 4-goals-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1529 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 4-1 and a Game 6 record of 2-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 3-6 and a Game 6 record of 6-3. The sole best-of-7 NHL playoff series loss by the Vegas Golden Knights in the wake of a 3-games-2 series lead (which they now hold in series 1529) occurred in series 1393, to the San Jose Sharks in the 2019 NHL Preliminary round. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series irrespective of Games 1-5 outcomes, the Edmonton Oilers have an active seven-Game 6 winning streak.

After Game 4: The Edmonton Oilers hosted and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 4-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1529 at 2-games-all. When tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 5 record of 2-1, while the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 9-4 and a Game 5 record of 8-5. The series 1529 Game 4 loss ends the four-Game 4 winning streak by the Vegas Golden Knights (irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes) in best-of-7 NHL playoff series.

After Game 3: The Vegas Golden Knights visited and defeated the Edmonton Oilers 5-goals-1 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1529 lead of 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 5-1 and a Game 4 record of 5-1 (with an active five-Game 4 winning streak). When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 5-8 and a Game 4 record of 5-8. Irrespective of Games 1-3 outcomes in best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have an active four-Game 4 winning streak.

After Game 2: The Edmonton Oilers visited and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 5-goals-1 to tie best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1529 at 1-game-all. When tied 1-game-all in a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 5-4 and a Game 3 record of 6-3, while the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 18-6 (with an active five-series winning streak) and a Game 3 record of 16-8. Irrespective of Games 1-2 outcome in best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have seen their Game 3 outcome presage their series outcome in their last seven such series (five wins, two losses).

After Game 1: The Vegas Golden Knights hosted and defeated the Edmonton Oilers 6-goals-4 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1529 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Vegas Golden Knights have a series record of 4-2 and a Game 2 record of 2-4. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the Edmonton Oilers have a series record of 12-13 and a Game 2 record of 15-10. The series 1529 Game 1 loss extends the Edmonton Oilers Game 1 losing streak in best-of-7 NHL playoff series to six games. Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff series 1-game-nil (as they now do in series 1529), Edmonton has seen its Game 2 outcome presage its series outcome in its last seven such series (four wins, three losses).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2022-23 NHL regular season, the Vegas Golden Knights finished two points ahead of the Edmonton Oilers. From 1939 through the 2023 NHL Preliminary round, when NHL teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by two regular-season points, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 20-19 (.513) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1529 is the 13th best-of-7 NHL playoff series for the Vegas Golden Knights, and the 50th for the Edmonton Oilers. In best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Vegas Golden Knights have an all-rounds series record of 8-4, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 3-0, and a Game 1 record of 6-6, while the Edmonton Oilers have an all-rounds series record of 33-16, a Quarterfinals-round series record of 10-5, and a Game 1 record of 24-25 (with an active five-Game 1 losing streak). Series 1529 is the first best-of-7 NHL playoff series meeting between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Edmonton Oilers.