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HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
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Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

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SEMIFINALS
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QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
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Game 1 played at home
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Game 1 played at home
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BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
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BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

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2024 MLB Semifinals round - Series 1581.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees

Schedule and 2024 Results
Regular Season Records: New York Yankees 94-68, Cleveland 92-69
Game 1 on Monday, 14 October: Cleveland loses at New York Yankees, 5-runs-2
Game 2 on Tuesday, 15 October: Cleveland loses at New York Yankees, 6-runs-3
Game 3 on Thursday, 17 October: New York Yankees lose at Cleveland, 7-runs-5 (10 innings)
Game 4 on Friday, 18 October: New York Yankees win at Cleveland, 8-runs-6
Game 5 on Saturday, 19 October: New York Yankees win at Cleveland, 5-runs-2 (10 innings)

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 5: The New York Yankees visited and defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-runs-2 (10 innings) to complete a 4-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1581 victory. With the series 1581 win, the New York Yankees improve their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record to 35-18 overall and 8-6 in the Semifinals round. With the series 1581 loss, the Cleveland Guardians see their best-of-7 MLB playoff series record fall to 0-1 overall and 0-1 in the Semifinals round. The win order for the victorious New York Yankees in series 1581 was WWLWW: Series 1581 thus becomes the eighth MLB Semifinals-round series, the 17th MLB series (all rounds), and the 132nd MLB/NBA/NHL series (all rounds) to follow that win order to completion. The series 1581 victory by the New York Yankees ends a five-series losing streak by the Yankees in best-of-7 MLB playoff competition. Through ten total games of both 2024 MLB Semifinals series through series 1581 Game 5, series 1581 Game 5 was only the second game in which both teams held leads at some point in the game. Series 1581 Game 5 is only the fourth best-of-7 MLB playoff game in which the home team scored two total runs with one run in the second inning and one run in the fifth inning. Series 1581 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds) to feature multiple extra-inning games since series 1352 (the 2017 MLB Finals between the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Dodgers), and the first best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series to feature multiple extra-inning games since series 1152 (the 2011 American League Championship Series between the Detroit Tigers and the Texas Rangers).

After Game 4: The New York Yankees visited and bested the Cleveland Guardians 8-runs-6 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1581 lead of 3-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the New York Yankees have a series record of 14-1 and a Game 5 record of 9-6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-1, the Cleveland Guardians have a series record of 0-1 and a Game 5 record of 1-0. The sole best-of-7 MLB playoff series lost by the New York Yankees in the wake of a 3-games-1 lead was series 936, to the Boston Red Sox in the 2004 American League Championship Series (the Yankees had held a 3-games-nil lead in that series). Only once did the old Cleveland Indians trail a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-1, in series 697 (a series loss to the Atlanta Braves in the 1995 MLB Finals in six games).

After Game 3: The Cleveland Guardians hosted and defeated the New York Yankees 7-runs-5 (10 innings) to drop the New York Yankees best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL series 1581 lead to 2-games-1. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the New York Yankees have a series record of 17-6 and a Game 4 record of 13-10. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Cleveland Guardians (as the old Cleveland Indians) had a series record of 1-2 and a Game 4 record of 2-1. Trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the old Cleveland Indians notched their sole series victory in series 695, over the Seattle Mariners in six games in the 1995 American League Championship Series. Series 1582 Game 3 appears to have become only the fifth best-of-7 MLB playoff game in which the home team trailed by 2+ runs in the bottom of the ninth inning with two out but won the game: Previous occurrences were in series 7 (the old New York Giants hosted and defeated the old Philadelphia Athletics in 1911 World Series Game 5), series 847 (the New York Yankees hosted and defeated the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001 World Series Game 4 AND Game 5), and series 1581 (the St. Louis Cardinals hosted and defeated the Texas Rangers in 2011 World Series Game 6).

After Game 2: The New York Yankees hosted and topped the Cleveland Guardians 6-runs-3 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1581 lead of 2-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the New York Yankees have a series record of 15-3 and a Game 3 record of 10-8. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-nil, the Cleveland Guardians have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 3 record of 1-1. With their best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1581 Game 2 victory, the New York Yankees take a 2-games-nil lead in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series since series 1086, against the old Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the 2009 American League Championship Series en route to a 2009 World Series victory.

After Game 1: The New York Yankees hosted and topped the Cleveland Guardians 5-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1581 lead of 1-game-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the New York Yankees have a series record of 23-8 and a Game 2 record of 18-13. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1-game-nil, the old Cleveland Indians had a series record of 3-5 and a Game 2 record of 6-2 (with an active four-Game 2 winning streak). With their best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1581 Game 1 loss, the old Cleveland Indians and the new Cleveland Guardians have a combined 0-9 Game 1 record on the road in best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds). In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series (all rounds), teams winning Game 1 by a 5-runs-2 score (as the Yankees did in series 1581 Game 1) have a 6-1 series record (the only loss was sustained in series 903, by the Boston Red Sox against the New York Yankees in the 2003 American League Championship Series in seven games).

Pre-series assessment: In the 2024 MLB regular season, the New York Yankees finished 1.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians. From 1905 through the 2023 MLB Finals round, when MLB teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by 1.5 regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 2-3 (.400) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1581 is the 53rd best-of-7 MLB playoff series for the New York Yankees, and the first for Cleveland as the Cleveland Guardians. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the New York Yankees have an all-rounds series record of 34-18 (with an active five-series losing streak), a Semifinals-round series record of 7-6 (with an active five-Semifinals round losing streak), and a Game 1 record of 31-21, while the Cleveland Guardians have an all-rounds series record of 0-0, a Semifinals-round series record of 0-0, and a Game 1 record of 0-0. Series 1581 is the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians. The New York Yankees and the old Cleveland Indians met once in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series, in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 770 (won by New York in six games in the 1998 American League Championship Series). The Cleveland Guardians, while known as their precursor entity the Cleveland Indians, had a best-of-7 MLB playoff series record of 4-6, a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals-round series record of 3-2, and a best-of-7 MLB playoff Game 1 record (all rounds) of 2-8, with the sole two wins occurring in the final two best-of-7 series played by the Cleveland Indians.