In contrast to the best-of-7 playoff series of 2000 (in which the eventual MLB, NBA, and NHL champions had to show their respective mettle en route to their respective championships), the best-of-7 playoff series of 2001 gave us champions whose paths to their respective championships were comparably strife-free. Nevertheless, there were fine examples of proven mettle during 2001 best-of-7 playoff series, and WhoWins™ is pleased to recognize those teams that thrived in the wake of such testing.

NHL:

In MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 828, the Detroit Red Wings enjoyed home-ice advantage over the Los Angeles Kings. It was perhaps the least of the advantages enjoyed by the Wings in that series, especially after Detroit won Game 1 at home 5-goals-3 and Game 2 at home 4-goals-nil to take a commanding (but not unexpected) 2-games-nil lead into Los Angeles. Surmounting a 2-games-nil best-of-7 playoff series deficit has proven difficult under even the best of circumstances: From 1905 through 2000, MLB, NBA, and NHL teams trailing 2-games-nil had only a 50-396 (.112) series record. But the Kings faced other issues. For one, that 4-goals-nil shutout loss in Game 2 extended their playoff game losing streak to 14 consecutive games, starting with Game 2 of the 1993 NHL Stanley Cup Finals (best-of-7 series 640 vs. the Montreal Canadiens). For another, the Wings had not just swept but also annihilated the Kings in 2000 (in best-of-7 series 805): Los Angeles did not for even a single second hold a lead in that 2000 series ... and had likewise not done so in their 2001 series through Game 2 -- Detroit had never trailed Los Angeles through six consecutive playoff games. In Game 3, the Kings did manage to take a lead and win the game in front of their home crowd in Los Angeles, to narrow the Detroit lead to 2-games-1. In Game 4, however, Detroit stung Los Angeles for two goals in less than two minutes, building a 1-goal-nil lead into a 3-goal-nil advantage, which the Red Wings maintained for over thirty minutes and carried into the last half of the third period. A Detroit win in Game 4 seemed assured, and a Game 5 on Detroit ice with a 3-games-1 Red Wing lead seemed to ensure a fourth consecutive playoff series loss for the Los Angeles Kings.

Or so it seemed. With 6:07 left in the third period, Los Angeles registered its first goal of the game to make the score 3-goals-1. In the 2369 best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2000, teams leading by three goals with 6:08 remaining in regulation (one second before the Kings' first goal) had a formidable game record of 355-2 (.994) -- the 1997 Edmonton Oilers (in Game 3 of their Preliminary-round series vs. Dallas) and the 1977 Philadelphia Flyers (in Game 4 of their Quarterfinals-round series vs. Toronto) accounted for the only two comeback victories. With 2:27 left in the third, the Kings then tallied again, tightening the score to 3-goals-2. In the 2369 best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2000, teams leading by two goals with 2:28 remaining in regulation (one second before the Kings' second goal) had a game record of 556-3 (.995) -- the aforementioned 1997 Oilers, the aforementioned 1977 Flyers, and the 1993 Quebec Nordiques (in Game 1 of their Preliminary-round series vs. Montreal) accounted for the three comeback victories. And, with 0:53 left in the third, the Kings scored yet again, tying their game at 3-goals-all. In the 2369 best-of-7 NHL playoff games from 1939 through 2000, teams leading by one goal with 0:54 remaining in regulation (one second before the Kings' tying goal) had a game record of 659-17 (.975) -- not quite as dominant as a .994 or a .995 winning fraction, but very close. Regulation play ended at three-goals-all, and 2:36 into the first overtime period, Los Angeles recorded its fourth goal in under nine minutes for a 4-goals-3 victory in Game 4, thus tying best-of-7 series 828 at 2-games-all. The Kings then took Games 5 and 6 from the stunned Red Wings to win the series 4-games-2 and advance to the 2001 NHL Stanley Cup Quarterfinals, where they would take the eventual 2001 NHL champion Colorado Avalanche to seven games before succumbing.

With the Los Angeles series victory over Detroit, it happens that NHL teams trailing their playoff opponents by a seemingly intimidating 19 regular-season points now have an 8-1 series record vs. such opponents. The "curse of 19?" WhoWins™ finds no room for curses within the realm of statistical analysis, but takes pleasure in pointing out this statistically aberrant behavior ... and likewise takes pleasure in recognizing the mettle shown by the 2001 edition of the NHL Los Angeles Kings. Of the 25 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB playoff series in calendar year 2001, the Kings were the only team to trail by two games within a series and yet rebound to win the series, with the Game 4 comeback victory highlighting the series comeback victory. Of the fourteen teams to face 3-games-2 deficits in the 25 best-of-7 playoff series in 2001, five rebounded to win their series; of the eighteen teams to face 2-games-1 deficits in the 25 best-of-7 playoff series in 2001, three rebounded to win their series; of the 25 teams to face 1-game-nil deficits in 2001, six rebounded to win their series. In 2001 NHL best-of-7 playoff games, the Kings (in that classic Game 4) were also the only team to rebound from a three-goal deficit to win a game, becoming the first team to do so in the NHL playoffs since Game 3 of series 755 (a 1998 Preliminary-round series in which the St. Louis Blues trailed three-goals-nil but scored four goals in less than four minutes to win 4-goals-3 -- ironically, in Los Angeles vs. the Kings).

MLB:

In the wake of the 11 September 2001 attack on New York by terrorists, a certain sentimental favoritism had settled upon the three-time MLB defending champion New York Yankees, and during the 2001 MLB playoffs, the Yankees had their mettle tested on a number of occasions. For starters, the Yankees trailed the Oakland Athletics two-games-nil in their best-of-5 American League Divisional Series before rebounding to win that series 3-games-2. Advancing to MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 series 845 -- the 2001 American League Championship Series -- pitted the 95-65 (regular season) Yankees against the 116-46 Seattle Mariners, whom the Yankees defeated 4-games-1 despite trailing the Mariners by 20 regular-season games. The upset victory by New York was the biggest in best-of-7 MLB Semifinals (League Championship Series) history in terms of regular-season records, easily topping the mark set in the 1987 American League Championship Series, when the 85-77 Minnesota Twins defeated the 98-64 Detroit Tigers 4-games-1 in best-of-7 series 498, despite trailing the Tigers by 13 regular-season games. Only the 1906 World Series victory by the 93-58 Chicago White Sox over the 116-36 Chicago Cubs rates as a bigger upset based on regular-season records: In only the second MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series ever, the Sox won 4-games-2 despite trailing the Cubs by 22.5 regular season games. The biggest NBA best-of-7 series upset based on regular-season records occurred in the 1976 NBA Semifinals, when the 42-40 Phoenix Suns shocked the 59-23 Golden State Warriors 4-games-3 in best-of-7 series 319 despite trailing the defending NBA champion Warriors by 17 regular season games (a feat since tied in the 1981 NBA Quarterfinals by the Kansas City Kings over Phoenix in best-of-7 series 391). The biggest NHL best-of-7 series upset based on regular-season records occurred in the 1991 NHL Preliminary round, when the 27-39-14 Minnesota North Stars surprised the 49-23-8 Chicago Blackhawks 4-games-2 in best-of-7 series 580, despite trailing the Blackhawks by 38 regular season points (roughly translated to 19 games, at two points per win and one point per tie or overtime loss).

But the mettle-testing for the Yankees did not end with their upset of the Seattle Mariners. In the 2001 World Series, with Games 3-5 in Yankee Stadium, the home team found itself in a dire situation in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 4. The Arizona Diamondbacks, leading best-of-7 series 847 by a 2-games-1 margin, led Game 4 by a 3-runs-1 tally and was one out away from taking a commanding 3-games-1 series lead. It was not to be, however, as New York homered to tie the game 3-runs-all and would go on to win 4-runs-3 in ten innings, thus tying the series 2-games-all. Likewise, the home team once again found itself in a dire situation in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 5. This time, Arizona led Game 5 by a 2-runs-nil tally and was one out away from taking a 3-games-2 series lead back to Arizona for Games 6 and (possibly) 7. Again, however, it was not to be, as New York homered to tie the game 2-runs-all and would again go on to win 3-runs-2 in 12 innings to take an improbable 3-games-2 lead in the 2001 World Series.

Regarding Games 4-5 of the 2001 World Series: In the 704 best-of-7 MLB playoff series games from 1905 through 2000, when the road team led by two runs after eight full innings, its game record was 3-59 (.048). Note that it is worse for the home team when the road team leads by two runs after 8 innings than after 8.5 innings, simply because the road team can cushion that two-run lead with insurance runs in the top of the ninth. After the Yankee comeback in Game 4, that record improved to 4-59 (.063). The historical probability that the Yankees would surmount successive two-run deficits after eight innings for victories in Games 4 and 5 was thus .048 x .063 = .003 (a probability that might have been too high for those 2001 Yankees, who after all were down to their last out in each case). To their credit, the Diamondbacks thrilled their home fans to a 15-runs-2 blowout victory in Game 6, and showed mettle of their own when, trailing Game 7 of the 2001 World Series by one run entering the bottom of the ninth, they plated two runs to win the game 3-runs-2 and the series 4-games-3. What was the historical victory probability of the Diamondbacks in that situation? In the 704 best-of-7 MLB playoff series games from 1905 through 2000, when the home team trailed a World Series Game 7 by 1+ runs after eight full innings, its game record was 1-16 (.059), with only the 1997 Florida Marlins setting a favorable precedent for the 2001 Diamondbacks by winning Game 7. Best-of-7 series 847 -- the 2001 World Series -- thus became the first best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which the home team won more than one game (Games 4, 5, 7) after trailing by 1+ runs upon entering the bottom of the ninth.

NBA:

Regrettably, the results of mettle-testing in the 2001 best-of-7 NBA playoff rounds just didn't measure up to that in the NHL and MLB. The largest end-of-1st-quarter deficit surmounted for a victory was ten points, by the 76ers in Philadelphia vs. Toronto in best-of-7 series 838 (NBA Quarterfinals round) Game 2. The largest end-of-1st-half deficit surmounted for a victory was also ten points, by the Milwaukee Bucks in Charlotte in best-of-7 series 839 (NBA Quarterfinals round) Game 6. The largest end-of-3rd-quarter deficit surmounted for a victory was only four points, by the eventual 2001 NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers in Sacramento in best-of-7 series 841 (NBA Quarterfinals round) Game 4. These comebacks were noteworthy, but certainly not overwhelming: In 1575 best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through 2000 (inclusive), teams trailing by ten points after 1Q had a 16-43 (.271) record, teams down ten points at the half had a 12-64 (.158) record [7-50 (.123) on the road], and teams down by four points after 3Q had a 30-76 (.286) record. The NBA might be chagrined to learn that, during best-of-7 NBA playoff games in 2001, teams trailing by any margin after 3Q had a game record of only 3-34 (.081) -- from 1947 through 2000 (inclusive), that record was 259-1256 (.171). So, for whatever reason, NBA teams trailing 2001 best-of-7 playoff games after 3Q were less than half as likely as the NBA norm to rebound for a victory. A prime example of fourth-quarter mettle that was tested and found wanting.

31 March 2003