With the National Basketball Association adopting the best-of-7 format for its eight Preliminary round (Conference Quarterfinals) series, the 2003 calendar year would offer a total of 33 NHL, NBA, and MLB best-of-7 playoff series - up from the 25 such playoff series offered annually since 1987 (when the National Hockey League adopted the best-of-7 format for their Preliminary round). Given this 32% increase in the number of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series each calendar year, and given that a team had not rebounded from a 3-games-1 deficit to win such a series since 2000 (when the eventual 2000 NHL champion New Jersey Devils accomplished that feat in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 810 vs. the Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL Semifinals round), one might have suspected that such a series comeback victory was due.

Was it ever.

In 2003, a total of five best-of-7 playoff series featured teams that won their series after trailing it 3-games-1 (topping the previous high of three such series, set in 1992). WhoWins™ gladly recognizes the teams winning these five playoff series for having proved their 2003 mettle; WhoWins™ also somberly notes that all but one of these teams had their 2003 playoff runs come to ignominious ends. The comeback teams that won these five series are the NHL Minnesota Wild (in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 879 vs. the Colorado Avalanche), the NHL Vancouver Canucks (in series 880 vs. the St. Louis Blues), the Wild again (series 884, vs. Vancouver), the NBA Detroit Pistons (series 888, vs. the Orlando Magic), and the MLB Florida Marlins (series 904, vs. the Chicago Cubs).

Upstart Minnesota Wild surmount 3-games-1 deficit to defeat Colorado Avalanche in series 879

With their first-ever best-of-7 NHL playoff series against the powerful 2001 NHL champion Colorado Avalanche, little was expected from the three-year-old Minnesota Wild. When the Wild trailed 3-games-1 after best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 879 Game 4, few experienced NHL observers could have been seriously surprised. But in Game 5 on Colorado ice, Minnesota held a 3-goals-nil lead after two periods and survived a third-period Avalanche onslaught to salvage a 3-goals-2 Game 5 win. In Game 6 in Minnesota, the Wild nursed a 2-goals-nil lead late into the third period, but the experienced Avalanche tallied with 3:26 and 1:32 left in the third to tie Game 6 at 2-goals-all. Stung by losing a two-goal lead with under four minutes to play, with an overtime Colorado goal meaning instant elimination, the Wild nevertheless thrilled their home crowd with the winning goal 4:22 into the first overtime period to knot series 879 at 3-games-all.

Still, Game 7 was on Colorado ice, and in best-of-7 NHL Preliminary round play from 1987 through 2002, home teams had a Game 7 record of 21-13 (.618) -- with the Colorado Avalanche themselves winning a 2002 NHL Preliminary round Game 7 on home ice (in series 853, vs. the Los Angeles Kings ... after leading those Kings 3-games-1). When the Avalanche scored with only 6:45 left in the third period to break a 1-goal-all Game 7 tie, the end seemed near for the Wild. But what ended was the Colorado lead when Minnesota tallied with but 4:28 left in the third, knotting Game 7 at 2-goals-all. And at 3:25 into the first overtime period, the Wild scored their final goal of series 879, thus notching a 4-games-3 series 879 victory after having trailed 3-games-1.

The 2003 Minnesota Wild thus became the seventh NHL team and the 12th MLB/NBA/NHL team to win Game 7 on the road in their first-ever best-of-7 playoff series. Ironically, one of their six NHL predecessors in this regard was their predecessor NHL franchise in Minnesota -- the North Stars -- which won series 190 Game 7 on the road to defeat the Los Angeles Kings in the 1968 NHL Quarterfinals. The 2003 NHL Minnesota Wild also became only the third MLB/NBA/NHL team to surmount a 3-games-1 deficit to achieve a best-of-7 series victory in their first-ever best-of-7 playoff series. The previous two teams to debut by accomplishing this feat: the NBA Miami Heat in series 739 (the 1997 NBA Quarterfinals vs. the New York Knickerbockers), and the NHL New York Islanders in series 295 (the 1975 NHL Quarterfinals vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins ... in which the Islanders surmounted a 3-games-nil deficit to oust the Penguins). An auspicious NHL best-of-7 playoff debut by the 2003 Minnesota Wild, to be certain.

Winning after trailing 3-games-1 ... and then losing after leading 3-games-1

It bears noting that the 1975 New York Islanders, after debuting in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 295 with a comeback from a 3-games-nil deficit to oust Pittsburgh, also fell behind 3-games-nil in their next best-of-7 NHL playoff series (series 296) vs. the Philadelphia Flyers. Those Islanders did not win series 296, but they did force the eventual 1975 NHL champion Flyers to a Game 7 in only their second NHL best-of-7 playoff series. The 2003 Minnesota Wild faced less severe 3-games-1 deficits in series 879 (in the NHL Preliminary round) and series 884 (in the NHL Quarterfinals), but unlike the 1975 Islanders, the 2003 Wild emerged with not one but two 4-games-3 series victories. Minnesota thus became the first MLB/NBA/NHL team to surmount 3-games-1 deficits for 4-games-3 victories in their first two best-of-7 playoff series (and with both Game 7s on road ice, no less). In series 884, the Wild won their second such series against the NHL Vancouver Canucks.

When it comes to surmounting 3-games-1 deficits to win best-of-7 playoff series, the Vancouver Canucks were not just any opponent: Overcoming a 3-games-1 deficit of their own to win best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 880 vs. the St. Louis Blues in the 2003 NHL Preliminary round, the Canucks stood alone with an MLB/NBA/NHL-leading three playoff series in which they had trailed 3-games-1 but won (having also done so in series 607 vs. the Winnipeg Jets in the 1992 Preliminary round, and in series 656 vs. the Calgary Flames in the 1994 Preliminary round). In series 884, it would be the mettle-annealed Vancouver Canucks that would take a 3-games-1 lead over the Minnesota Wild ... only to lose Game 5 in Vancouver 7-goals-2, Game 6 in Minnesota 5-goals-1, and Game 7 in Vancouver 4-goals-2 to give Minnesota the 4-games-3 series 884 victory. The 2003 Minnesota Wild thus became only the second MLB/NBA/NHL team to win consecutive best-of-7 series after trailing 3-games-1 in each (the first was the 1985 MLB Kansas City Royals, which accomplished the feat in their second and third best-of-7 playoff series).

Surmounting many 3-games-1 deficits in a best-of-7 NBA Preliminary round?

The Spring 2003 playoff season was the first to feature a best-of-7 NBA Preliminary round. Regarding comebacks from 3-games-1 deficits, consider the NHL, which adopted the best-of-7 Preliminary-round format in 1987.

In the 216 completed NHL best-of-7 playoff series from 1939 through 1986, 86 featured a 3-games-1 lead; the leader lost only two of those 86 series (2.3%).

In the 119 best-of-7 NHL non-Preliminary-round playoff series from 1987 through 2003, 56 featured a 3-games-1 lead, with the leader losing only three of those 56 series (5.4%).

But of the 136 best-of-7 NHL Preliminary-round playoff series from 1987 through 2003, 59 featured a 3-games-1 lead, with the leading team losing not just a few but 14 of those 59 Preliminary-round series (24%).

So, in the NHL, the best-of-7 Preliminary round has been a fertile breeding ground for the 3-games-1 series comeback.

Will the NBA best-of-7 Preliminary round likewise be a fertile breeding ground for the 3-games-1 series comeback? If best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 888 and 894 are any indication, yes.

In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 888, the Orlando Magic took a 3-games-1 Preliminary-round lead over the Detroit Pistons, but the end of Game 4 proved to be the apex of the 2003 NBA playoff season for Orlando: In posting a 98-pts-67 Game 5 win in Detroit, a 103-pts-88 Game 6 win in Orlando, and a 108-pts-93 Game 7 win in Detroit, the Pistons led Orlando after each and every quarter of their double-digit Game 5-7 wins as they ousted the Magic 4-games-3.

In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 894, the Dallas Mavericks raced to a commanding 3-games-nil lead over the Portland Trailblazers, only to have to win Game 7 at home in the first NBA best-of-7 series to go the distance after a 3-games-nil start since 1994 (series 669, in which the Utah Jazz similarly defeated the Denver Nuggets).

It happened that five of the eight best-of-7 NBA Preliminary round playoff series in 2003 were not tied after the first four games. Thus, in the very small sampling that is the best-of-7 NBA Preliminary round through 2003, teams taking a 3-games-nil or 3-games-1 lead have a two-in-five historical probability of facing a Game 7, and a one-in-five probability of losing a Game 7. As time goes by, that sampling will grow, but it remains to be seen whether the NBA best-of-7 Preliminary-round probabilities remain at NHL best-of-7 Preliminary-round probability levels.

After the 3-games-1 comeback: Only one sweet finish in 2003

Alas, for those NHL and NBA teams for whom the 3-games-1 comeback was so sweet, the Spring 2003 playoff season offered a bitter ending indeed. After accomplishing an unprecedented third 3-games-1 MLB/NBA/NHL comeback victory in series 880, the Vancouver Canucks opened series 884 with an unprecedented in-game comeback vs. the Minnesota Wild in Game 1 (more on this great comeback later), and proceeded to take a 3-games-1 lead over the Wild. After such an inauspicious best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 884 beginning, however, the Wild would give the newly crowned champions of the 3-games-1 comeback a proverbial taste of their own medicine, sending them to their first defeat in the wake of a 3-games-1 lead. After showing mettle in the 2003 NHL Preliminary round, the Vancouver Canucks bore first-hand witness to the same grade of mettle ... shown this time against them. In 1986, the MLB Boston Red Sox were one strike away from losing series 473 but won it ... and then were one strike away from winning series 475 but lost it. What the 2003 Vancouver Canucks experienced was not as extreme; still, the Minnesota Wild certainly showed the champions of the 3-games-1 comeback the opposite perspective.

As for the Wild: After climbing out of consecutive 3-games-1 holes (and winning both Game 7s on the road) in their first two best-of-7 NHL playoff series ever, they encountered the Anaheim Mighty Ducks in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 886, in the 2003 NHL Semifinals. That Anaheim swept the Wild four-games-nil to win series 886 was a bad-enough ending to Minnesota's 2003 season. That the Wild held a lead for a mere total of three minutes fifty-three seconds in the entire series made a bad-enough ending much worse. That the Minnesota Wild managed only one goal in the whole of series 886 made the end to their 2003 playoff season worst of all. In the 471 best-of-7 NHL playoff series from 1939 through 2003, never before had one team tallied as few as one goal in such a series. It was a most ignominious end to what had been a stellar 2003 NHL playoff run for the upstart Minnesota Wild.

In the NBA, the Detroit Pistons followed up their 3-games-1 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 888 comeback victory over the Orlando Magic with a series 896 NBA Quarterfinals win over the Philadelphia 76ers. Next, however, the Pistons encountered the New Jersey Nets. The Nets not only swept Detroit four-games-nil to win series 900, but also led the hapless Pistons after thirteen of the sixteen quarters in their 2003 NBA Semifinals series despite yielding home-court advantage to Detroit. Thus, harsh endings one and all in Spring 2003 for the NHL Vancouver Canucks (after surmounting their 3-games-1 deficit in series 880), the NHL Minnesota Wild (after doing likewise in series 879 and 884), and the NBA Detroit Pistons (after accomplishing the feat in series 888).

Among those teams to surmount a 3-games-1 deficit for a series victory in 2003, the only team to parlay that sweet accomplishment into a happy ending was the last team so situated in 2003: The MLB Florida Marlins. Down 3-games-1 in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 904 (the 2003 MLB Semifinals or National League Championship Series) and with Games 6-7 on the road, Florida nevertheless posted a 4-runs-nil Game 5 victory, an 8-runs-3 Game 6 victory, and a 9-runs-6 Game 7 win to take series 904 from the Chicago Cubs. Would those Marlins follow the sad path paved earlier in the year by the NHL Canucks, NHL Wild, and NBA Pistons? No. The Florida Marlins would go on to defeat the New York Yankees in series 905 (the 2003 MLB Finals or World Series) for the 2003 MLB championship. If all's well that ends well, then the Florida Marlins ended 2003 well, and all was indeed well with them.

Trailing a best-of-7 NHL playoff game with three seconds left ... and winning

Foolish is the NHL team that, possessing a one-goal lead late in the game, thinks it has the game won. From neophyte spectators to grizzled veterans, all know that a one-goal lead in an NHL playoff game can be negated in even the last second of regulation, with the negators then able to score again in overtime to deal the most disheartening of defeats to their hapless opponents. But in the 65-year history of completed best-of-7 NHL playoff series (from 1939 through 2003, inclusive), not once has a team leading by one goal with two seconds remaining in regulation yielded the tying goal with one second remaining and the losing goal in overtime.

Through 2003, home teams leading by one goal have never lost a best-of-7 NHL playoff game upon taking that one-goal lead into the final nine seconds of regulation. The furthest into regulation that a best-of-7 NHL playoff game-losing home team has ever carried a one-goal lead was 19:50 of the third period. In Game 4 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 704 (in the 1996 NHL Preliminary round), the Calgary Flames led the Chicago Blackhawks on Alberta ice 1-goal-nil at the 19:50 mark of the third period, but the Blackhawks tied the game 1-goal-all with nine seconds remaining in regulation, and won it 2-goals-1 at 10:02 into the third overtime period. This "zone of unprecedented defeat" remains the last nine seconds of regulation for a home team leading by one goal; however, the equivalent site-independent "zone" for a one-goal lead shrank considerably in 2003.

Through 2002, road teams leading by one goal had never lost a best-of-7 NHL playoff game upon taking that thinnest of leads into the final eleven seconds of regulation. The furthest into regulation that a best-of-7 NHL playoff game-losing road team had carried a one-goal lead was 19:48 of the third period. In Game 4 best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 192 (in the 1968 NHL Semifinals), the Minnesota North Stars led the Blues in St. Louis 3-goals-2 at the 19:48 mark of the third period, but the Blues tied the game 3-goals-all with eleven seconds remaining in regulation, and won it 4-goals-3 at 1:32 into the first overtime period. The 2003 NHL playoff season marked the thirty-fifth anniversary of that St. Louis Blues comeback; however, the Vancouver Canucks would not only oust the Blues from the 2003 playoffs (after trailing St. Louis 3-games-1), but also eclipse the St. Louis series 192 Game 4 comeback win with an even more difficult comeback victory on home ice.

In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 884 Game 1 (in the 2003 NHL Quarterfinals), the Vancouver Canucks hosted the Minnesota Wild. With 8:48 left in the third period and Minnesota leading 3-goals-1, Vancouver scored to halve the Wild lead. Then, with only two seconds left in regulation, the Canucks tied the game. And 3:42 into the first overtime period, the Canucks scored once more to defeat Minnesota 4-goals-3. Never before had a road team protected a one-goal lead as late as 19:57 into the third period without emerging victorious. With the Vancouver Canucks proving its mettle in series 884 Game 1, the best-of-7 NHL playoff game "zone of unprecedented defeat" has shrunk to just the last second of regulation for teams holding a one-goal lead. The Vancouver Canucks thus reign victorious as the NHL team to trail the latest into a best-of-7 NHL playoff game without succumbing to defeat.

Noteworthy 2003 in-game NBA comebacks

In contrast to its Spring playoff partners on ice, the National Basketball Association did not offer a comeback from an unprecedented in-game deficit by a victorious team in the Spring 2003 playoffs. Nevertheless, what the eventual 2003 NBA champion San Antonio Spurs were able to accomplish in best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 901 Game 6 was -- while not unprecedented -- both rare and slightly unnerving to the superstitious. Leading the Dallas Mavericks 3-games-2 in their best-of-7 NBA Semifinals (Conference Finals) series, the Spurs found themselves trailing the host Mavericks by a lucky thirteen points after three quarters of Game 6 in Dallas. Surmounting a deficit of more than 13 points after three quarters to win a best-of-7 NBA playoff game is not unprecedented. In the history of best-of-7 format NBA playoff games, the largest end-of-third-quarter deficit surmounted by the eventually victorious team was 21 points: In series 867 Game 3, the host Boston Celtics trailed the New Jersey Nets 74-pts-53 in their 2002 NBA Semifinals series, but won the game 94-pts-90.

As for thirteen-point deficits after three quarters, however, NBA teams finding themselves so challenged in a best-of-7 playoff game had only a 1-64 (.015) game record from 1947 through 2002. Triskaidekaphobia, indeed. The sole winner of the 65 teams faced with this situation had been the 2000 Los Angeles Lakers, who rallied on their home court to top the Portland Trailblazers 89-pts-84 in their NBA Semifinals (best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 818) Game 7. In series 901 Game 6, a 69-pts-56 deficit faced the visiting San Antonio Spurs after three quarters. Yet, outscoring Dallas 34-pts-9 in the fourth quarter, the Spurs achieved a 90-pts-78 Game 6 victory to notch a 4-games-2 series 901 win over their fellow Texans, along with a trip to the 2003 NBA Finals. In achieving their in-game comeback, San Antonio became only the second NBA team in a best-of-7 playoff series to trail by double digits after three quarters but win the game by double digits -- a mettle-forging feat in any year.

The largest halftime deficit surmounted for a game victory in the 2003 NBA playoffs was twelve points. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 890 Game 4, the host Boston Celtics trailed the Indiana Pacers 48-pts-36 after two quarters, and yet rallied to win 102-pts-92 in their Preliminary-round battle. Entering the 2003 NBA playoffs, teams that trailed by an even dozen points at halftime had a 5-46 (.098) game record.

The largest deficit after one quarter surmounted for a game victory in the 2003 NBA playoffs was thirteen points. One team achieved this particular comeback, twice. In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 899 Game 3, the visiting Dallas Mavericks trailed the Sacramento Kings 36-pts-23 after one quarter, but rallied for a 141-pts-137 double-overtime victory in their Quarterfinals series. In series 901 Game 1, the visiting Dallas Mavericks trailed the San Antonio Spurs 36-pts-23 after one quarter (ironically enough), and again rallied -- this time to notch a 113-pts-110 Semifinals-round game victory. Entering the 2003 NBA playoffs, teams that trailed by thirteen points after one quarter had a 9-33 (.214) game record.

Mettle, 13-point end-quarter margins, and the Dallas Mavericks were thus closely associated in the 2003 NBA playoffs: After taking a 3-game-nil Preliminary-round series lead over the Portland Trailblazers only to eke out a series win through Game 7, the Mavericks twice surmounted 13-point deficits after one quarter for game victories in the subsequent rounds ... only to squander a 13-point lead after three quarters in what the eventual 2003 NBA champion San Antonio Spurs would make the last game of the 2003 NBA playoff season for Dallas. Those who live by the dramatic comeback eventually perish by it.

Noteworthy 2003 in-game MLB comebacks

Unlike the 2002 MLB playoff season, the 2003 MLB playoff season featured no unprecedented in-game comebacks. Nevertheless, significant mettle was forged against two teams -- the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox -- whose legends lie in their playoff futility. It is ironic that, in the early era of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, the Cubs and Red Sox had actually enjoyed a somewhat disproportionate amount of post-season success. With their 1908 World Series victory, the Chicago Cubs became the first MLB entity to win more than one best-of-7 playoff series, and the only MLB team to do so until the Philadelphia Athletics won their second best-of-7 playoff series with a 1911 World Series victory. Becoming the first MLB team to notch three best-of-7 playoff series victories, those Philadelphia A's won the 1913 World Series. The first team to four best-of-7 playoff series wins was none other than the Boston Red Sox with their 1918 World Series victory.

The Boston Red Sox retained the title for most best-of-7 playoff series wins until those aforementioned Philadelphia Athletics won their fourth and fifth best-of-7 playoff series in the 1929 and 1930 World Series, respectively. The New York Yankees would soon wrest this title from the Philadelphia A's, and with the advent of the NBA and NHL as leagues employing the best-of-7 playoff series, the NHL Montreal Canadiens would eventually claim more best-of-7 playoff series wins than any other MLB, NBA, or NHL team. Even though the Boston Red Sox have not won a World Series since 1918 (against the Cubs), and even though the Chicago Cubs have not won any best-of-7 MLB playoff series since 1908, they are and will remain two of the select entities to have won more best-of-7 playoff series than any other MLB/NBA/NHL team.

A cold comfort, however, will that knowledge be to the current Boston Red Sox (and their fans). In the seventh game of best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 903, the Boston Red Sox led their arch-rival New York Yankees 5-runs-2 after 7.5 innings in Yankee Stadium. New York promptly tallied three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to tie the game 5-runs-all, and won 6-runs-5 in the bottom of the eleventh inning. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series from 1905 through 2002, home teams trailing by three runs after 7.5 innings had a game record of only 3-39 (.071). Of the three home teams to win a game in the face of this daunting situation before 2003, the most recent was the 1986 California Angels in series 473 Game 4 ... in the 1986 American League Championship Series against, ironically, the Boston Red Sox. Later in series 473, down 3-games-1 and down 5-runs-2 after eight full innings of Game 5 in California (and one strike away from defeat at one point in the top of the ninth), Boston would rally to win Game 5 and then win Games 6-7 in as fine a display of mettle as Major League Baseball could ever offer. But a similarly happy fate was not in the offing for Boston seventeen years later, as the Red Sox completed their 85th straight season without a World Series title.

A cold comfort will the aforementioned knowledge also be to the current Chicago Cubs (and their fans). In best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 904 Game 6, the Chicago Cubs led the relatively upstart Florida Marlins 3-games-2 and 3-runs-nil after seven full innings in their 2003 National League Championship Series. Playing in Chicago, the Cubs were six outs away from their first best-of-7 playoff series victory since series 4 (the 1908 World Series), but Florida would post an eight-run eighth inning and claim an 8-runs-3 Game 6 win. In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series from 1905 through 2002, road teams trailing by three runs after seven full innings had a game record of only 5-52 (.088). Florida would then achieve a 9-runs-6 Game 7 victory in Chicago to complete the hard-wrought comeback from a 3-games-1 deficit as cited above. The Fall 2005 MLB playoff season thus ended not only with the Boston Red Sox completing their 85th straight season without a World Series title, but also with the Chicago Cubs completing their 95th straight season without a best-of-7 MLB playoff series victory (let alone a World Series title).

15 December 2003