Overview: From 13 July 1930, when Montevideo, Uruguay played host to France's 4-goals-1 defeat of Mexico and USA's 3-goals-nil shutout of Belgium in the first two FIFA World Cup contests, through 09 July 2006, when Italy defeated France on penalty kicks in Berlin, Germany in the most recent FIFA World Cup contest, a total of 708 FIFA World Cup matches have been played. As a change of pace from its standard best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series coverage, WhoWins™ presents the following table of in-match historical victory probabilities, as meticulously extracted from statistical summaries of these previous 708 matches. For a given lead (of one goal, two goals, three goals, four or more goals, any number of goals) and a given minute of the match (1st through 45th; 48th through 90th), this table tells you how many times the team holding a given lead after a given minute had won, lost, or tied the corresponding match. See the end of the following table for more information.

Example: So, for example, look at the row for the 6th minute and the column for a 1-goal lead in the table just above. From it, we can tell that (in the 708 previous FIFA World Cup matches) when teams held a one-goal lead after the 6th minute of the match, they notched 57 regular-match wins, 19 regular-match losses, and 14 regular-match ties for a 57/(57+19+14) = .633 regular-match winning fraction and a (57+14)/(57+19+14) = .789 non-losing (winning or tying) fraction. By "regular-match," we mean all match play (regulation time, injury time, post-regulation extra time for tied matches) prior to any shootout. Thus, some of those regular-match ties may have been broken through shootout penalty kicks, but such tiebreakers are not reflected by our table. Note also that the 46th and 47th minutes have no rows in our table. Results for these minutes were not displayed due to ambiguities caused by goals scored during first-half injury time in the 46th and 47th minutes of the first half.

One-goal leads: Note from the table that four regular-match ties occurred after one team had held a one-goal lead after the 90th minute. Those four matches occurred on 14 June 2006 (when Tunisia scored in the 92nd minute to tie Saudi Arabia 2-goals-all in Munich, Germany), 5 June 2002 (when Ireland scored in the 92nd minute to tie Germany 1-goal-all in Ibaraki, Japan), 2 June 2002 (when South Africa notched a penalty kick goal in the 91st minute to tie Paraguay 2-goals-all in Busan, South Korea), and 24 June 1998 (when South Africa again notched a penalty kick goal -- this time in the 94th minute -- to tie Saudi Arabia 2-goals-all in Bordeaux, France). A regular-match loss by teams holding a one-goal lead after the 88th and subsequent minutes is thus far unprecedented in FIFA World Cup play. The furthest into a match that a team has held a one-goal lead but suffered a regular-match loss has been after the 87th minute. Such losses have occurred twice, and Italy has been involved each time: On 18 June 2002 (when South Korea scored in the 88th minute to tie and 117th minute to defeat Italy 2-goals-1 in Daejeon, South Korea), and on 5 July 1994 (when Italy scored in the 88th minute to tie and 100th minute to defeat Nigeria 2-goals-1 in Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA).

Two-goal leads: A regular-match tie or loss by teams holding a two-goal lead after the 85th and subsequent minutes is thus far unprecedented in FIFA World Cup play. On 17 June 1994 in Dallas, Texas, USA, Spain led South Korea 2-goals-nil after the 84th minute, but South Korea scored goals in the 85th and 90th minutes to force a 2-goals-all regular-match tie; thus, 84 minutes is the furthest into a FIFA World Cup match that a team has taken a two-goal lead without securing a regular-match win. A regular-match loss by teams holding a two-goal lead after the 68th and subsequent minutes is thus far unprecedented in FIFA World Cup play. On 14 June 1970 in Leon, Mexico, England led West Germany 2-goals-nil after the 67th minute, but West Germany scored goals in the 68th, 76th, and 108th minutes to secure a 3-goals-2 comeback victory; thus, 67 minutes is the furthest into a FIFA World Cup match that a team has taken a two-goal lead and suffered a regular-match loss.

Three-goal leads: A regular-match tie or loss by teams holding a three-goal lead after the 68th and subsequent minutes is thus far unprecedented in FIFA World Cup play. On 3 June 1962 in Arica, Chile, the Soviet Union led Colombia 4-goals-1 after the 67th minute, but Colombia scored goals in the 68th, 72th, and 86th minutes to force a 4-goals-all regular-match tie; thus, 67 minutes is the furthest into a FIFA World Cup match that a team has taken a three-goal lead without securing a regular-match win. A regular-match loss by teams holding a three-goal lead after the 27th and subsequent minutes is thus far unprecedented in FIFA World Cup play. On 23 July 1966 in Liverpool, England, North Korea led Portugal 3-goals-nil after the 26th minute, but Portugal scored goals in the 27th, 43rd, 56th, 59th, and 80th minutes to secure a 5-goals-3 comeback victory that has to rate among the biggest comeback victories in FIFA World Cup history; thus, 26 minutes is the furthest into a FIFA World Cup match that a team has taken a three-goal lead and suffered a regular-match loss.

Leads of four goals and greater: In the 708 FIFA World Cup matches played since the first tournament in Uruguay in 1930, no team with a lead of four or more goals has ever achieved anything but a regular-match win. In these 708 matches, the earliest four-goal lead ever achieved was that which came in the 12th minute: On 3 June 1962 in Rancagua, Chile, Hungary took a 4-goal-nil lead over Bulgaria in only the 12th minute of the match, and coasted to a 6-goals-1 victory.

10 June 2010