WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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SPECIAL COVERAGE: FIFA WORLD CUP 2018

Overview: From 13 July 1930, when Montevideo, Uruguay played host to France's 4-goals-1 defeat of Mexico and USA's 3-goals-nil shutout of Belgium in the first two FIFA World Cup contests, through 13 July 2014, when Germany defeated Argentina 1-goal-nil with the sole goal in the 113th minute in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil in the most recently completed FIFA World Cup tournament, a total of 836 FIFA World Cup matches have been played. As a change of pace from its standard best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series coverage, WhoWins™ presents the following table of in-match historical victory probabilities, as meticulously extracted from statistical summaries of these previous 836 matches. For a given lead (of one goal, two goals, three goals, four or more goals, any number of goals) and a given minute of the match (1st through 45th; 48th through 90th), this table tells you how many times the team holding a given lead after a given minute had won, lost, or tied the corresponding match. See the end of the following table for more information.

minute 1-goal lead 2-goal lead 3-goal lead 4+goal lead all leads
1' 11-4-0, (.733, .733) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 11-4-0, (.733, .733)
2' 20-8-2, (.667, .733) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 20-8-2, (.667, .733)
3' 30-10-5, (.667, .778) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 30-10-5, (.667, .778)
4' 42-13-8, (.667, .794) 2-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 44-13-8, (.677, .800)
5' 53-16-11, (.663, .800) 3-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 56-16-11, (.675, .807)
6' 65-19-17, (.644, .812) 4-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 69-19-17, (.657, .819)
7' 76-20-21, (.650, .829) 5-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 81-20-21, (.664, .836)
8' 85-21-25, (.649, .840) 5-1-0, (.833, .833) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 91-22-25, (.659, .841)
9' 90-21-27, (.652, .848) 7-1-0, (.875, .875) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 98-22-27, (.667, .850)
10' 100-27-28, (.645, .826) 7-0-1, (.875, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 108-27-29, (.659, .835)
11' 112-30-30, (.651, .826) 8-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 1-0-1, (.500, 1.000) 0-0-0, (---, ---) 121-30-31, (.665, .835)
12' 125-31-31, (.668, .834) 13-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-1, (.000, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 139-31-32, (.688, .847)
13' 132-35-35, (.653, .827) 14-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-1, (.000, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 147-35-36, (.674, .839)
14' 133-34-38, (.649, .834) 19-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-1, (.000, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 153-34-39, (.677, .850)
15' 148-36-39, (.664, .839) 21-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-1, (.000, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 170-36-40, (.691, .854)
16' 157-39-42, (.660, .836) 21-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 0-0-1, (.000, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 179-39-43, (.686, .851)
17' 168-38-44, (.672, .848) 24-1-0, (.960, .960) 1-0-1, (.500, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 194-39-45, (.698, .860)
18' 173-42-45, (.665, .838) 30-1-1, (.938, .969) 2-0-1, (.667, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 206-43-47, (.696, .855)
19' 183-47-47, (.661, .830) 32-1-1, (.941, .971) 2-0-1, (.667, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 218-48-49, (.692, .848)
20' 190-45-46, (.676, .840) 34-2-1, (.919, .946) 3-0-1, (.750, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 228-47-48, (.706, .854)
21' 193-46-48, (.672, .840) 32-2-2, (.889, .944) 5-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 1-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 231-48-50, (.702, .854)
22' 198-46-49, (.676, .843) 35-4-2, (.854, .902) 4-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 2-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 239-50-51, (.703, .853)
23' 205-46-52, (.677, .848) 34-4-2, (.850, .900) 6-1-0, (.857, .857) 2-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 247-51-54, (.702, .855)
24' 205-46-56, (.668, .850) 34-4-2, (.850, .900) 8-1-0, (.889, .889) 3-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 250-51-58, (.696, .858)
25' 210-44-55, (.680, .858) 39-4-2, (.867, .911) 7-1-0, (.875, .875) 3-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 259-49-57, (.710, .866)
26' 212-44-52, (.688, .857) 43-4-4, (.843, .922) 6-1-0, (.857, .857) 4-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 265-49-56, (.716, .868)
27' 217-48-51, (.687, .848) 48-4-4, (.857, .929) 6-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 4-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 275-52-55, (.720, .864)
28' 219-50-51, (.684, .844) 50-4-4, (.862, .931) 6-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 4-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 279-54-55, (.719, .861)
29' 223-47-51, (.695, .854) 51-4-4, (.864, .932) 7-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 4-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 285-51-55, (.729, .870)
30' 220-47-53, (.688, .853) 56-4-4, (.875, .938) 11-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 4-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 291-51-57, (.729, .872)
31' 224-50-53, (.685, .847) 59-4-4, (.881, .940) 11-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 5-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 299-54-57, (.729, .868)
32' 219-49-54, (.680, .848) 64-4-3, (.901, .944) 12-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 5-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 300-53-57, (.732, .871)
33' 220-47-54, (.685, .854) 68-4-3, (.907, .947) 12-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 5-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 305-51-57, (.738, .877)
34' 224-48-55, (.685, .853) 68-4-3, (.907, .947) 14-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 5-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 311-52-58, (.739, .876)
35' 229-50-55, (.686, .850) 67-4-3, (.905, .946) 13-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 7-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 316-54-58, (.738, .874)
36' 227-49-56, (.684, .852) 72-4-3, (.911, .949) 14-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 8-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 321-53-59, (.741, .878)
37' 225-50-57, (.678, .849) 73-3-3, (.924, .962) 15-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 9-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 322-53-60, (.740, .878)
38' 231-49-56, (.688, .854) 73-3-2, (.936, .962) 18-0-1, (.947, 1.000) 9-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 331-52-59, (.749, .882)
39' 235-48-61, (.683, .860) 75-3-2, (.938, .963) 21-0-1, (.955, 1.000) 9-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 340-51-64, (.747, .888)
40' 239-48-59, (.691, .861) 76-3-2, (.938, .963) 22-0-1, (.957, 1.000) 10-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 347-51-62, (.754, .889)
41' 237-47-58, (.693, .863) 77-3-2, (.939, .963) 23-0-1, (.958, 1.000) 10-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 347-50-61, (.758, .891)
42' 237-49-57, (.691, .857) 80-1-3, (.952, .988) 23-0-1, (.958, 1.000) 10-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 350-50-61, (.759, .892)
43' 243-47-58, (.698, .865) 83-0-4, (.954, 1.000) 21-0-1, (.955, 1.000) 12-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 359-47-63, (.765, .900)
44' 244-41-57, (.713, .880) 85-0-4, (.955, 1.000) 21-0-1, (.955, 1.000) 13-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 363-41-62, (.779, .912)
45' 252-42-53, (.726, .879) 84-0-4, (.955, 1.000) 21-0-1, (.955, 1.000) 14-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 371-42-58, (.788, .911)
48' 247-47-56, (.706, .866) 91-0-5, (.948, 1.000) 28-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 15-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 381-47-61, (.779, .904)
49' 250-46-58, (.706, .870) 95-2-5, (.931, .980) 28-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 15-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 388-48-63, (.778, .904)
50' 254-44-57, (.715, .876) 95-1-5, (.941, .990) 30-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 17-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 396-45-62, (.787, .911)
51' 258-43-58, (.719, .880) 99-1-5, (.943, .990) 30-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 17-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 404-44-63, (.791, .914)
52' 253-39-55, (.729, .888) 109-1-5, (.948, .991) 27-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 19-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 408-40-60, (.803, .921)
53' 258-37-57, (.733, .895) 107-1-5, (.947, .991) 29-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 20-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 414-38-62, (.805, .926)
54' 254-36-55, (.736, .896) 112-1-6, (.941, .992) 27-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 22-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 415-37-61, (.809, .928)
55' 257-34-53, (.747, .901) 115-1-8, (.927, .992) 28-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 25-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 425-35-61, (.816, .933)
56' 264-27-53, (.767, .922) 114-1-7, (.934, .992) 29-0-1, (.967, 1.000) 25-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 432-28-61, (.829, .946)
57' 266-25-51, (.778, .927) 119-1-7, (.937, .992) 30-0-1, (.968, 1.000) 25-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 440-26-59, (.838, .950)
58' 266-24-53, (.776, .930) 119-1-7, (.937, .992) 31-0-1, (.969, 1.000) 25-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 441-25-61, (.837, .953)
59' 266-23-53, (.778, .933) 124-1-6, (.947, .992) 32-0-1, (.970, 1.000) 25-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 447-24-60, (.842, .955)
60' 267-23-51, (.783, .933) 125-1-6, (.947, .992) 34-0-1, (.971, 1.000) 27-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 453-24-58, (.847, .955)
61' 269-22-49, (.791, .935) 126-1-6, (.947, .992) 38-0-1, (.974, 1.000) 27-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 460-23-56, (.853, .957)
62' 264-22-47, (.793, .934) 128-1-6, (.948, .993) 41-0-1, (.976, 1.000) 28-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 461-23-54, (.857, .957)
63' 267-22-48, (.792, .935) 130-1-6, (.949, .993) 42-0-1, (.977, 1.000) 29-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 468-23-55, (.857, .958)
64' 270-20-47, (.801, .941) 127-1-6, (.948, .993) 44-0-1, (.978, 1.000) 31-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 472-21-54, (.863, .962)
65' 263-19-46, (.802, .942) 139-1-6, (.952, .993) 45-0-1, (.978, 1.000) 31-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 478-20-53, (.868, .964)
66' 268-18-47, (.805, .946) 140-1-5, (.959, .993) 47-0-1, (.979, 1.000) 32-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 487-19-53, (.871, .966)
67' 267-16-48, (.807, .952) 140-1-4, (.966, .993) 51-0-1, (.981, 1.000) 33-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 491-17-53, (.875, .970)
68' 266-17-49, (.801, .949) 142-0-5, (.966, 1.000) 53-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 35-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 496-17-54, (.875, .970)
69' 263-17-47, (.804, .948) 146-0-4, (.973, 1.000) 55-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 36-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 500-17-51, (.880, .970)
70' 266-17-48, (.804, .949) 143-0-4, (.973, 1.000) 57-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 38-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 504-17-52, (.880, .970)
71' 270-16-44, (.818, .952) 140-0-4, (.972, 1.000) 61-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 38-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 509-16-48, (.888, .972)
72' 273-15-44, (.822, .955) 140-0-3, (.979, 1.000) 64-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 38-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 515-15-47, (.893, .974)
73' 277-13-43, (.832, .961) 140-0-2, (.986, 1.000) 67-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 39-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 523-13-45, (.900, .978)
74' 275-13-43, (.831, .961) 143-0-2, (.986, 1.000) 67-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 39-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 524-13-45, (.900, .978)
75' 275-8-41, (.849, .975) 148-0-1, (.993, 1.000) 64-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 43-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 530-8-42, (.914, .986)
76' 285-8-39, (.858, .976) 145-0-1, (.993, 1.000) 67-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 44-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 541-8-40, (.919, .986)
77' 287-6-39, (.864, .982) 145-0-1, (.993, 1.000) 70-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 44-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 546-6-40, (.922, .990)
78' 294-7-40, (.862, .979) 147-0-1, (.993, 1.000) 70-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 46-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 557-7-41, (.921, .988)
79' 292-7-37, (.869, .979) 151-0-1, (.993, 1.000) 74-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 46-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 563-7-38, (.926, .988)
80' 294-7-33, (.880, .979) 153-0-1, (.994, 1.000) 72-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 51-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 570-7-34, (.933, .989)
81' 294-6-34, (.880, .982) 152-0-1, (.993, 1.000) 73-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 53-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 572-6-35, (.933, .990)
82' 291-6-33, (.882, .982) 151-0-1, (.993, 1.000) 74-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 56-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 572-6-34, (.935, .990)
83' 294-4-31, (.894, .988) 156-0-1, (.994, 1.000) 69-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 59-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 578-4-32, (.941, .993)
84' 294-3-30, (.899, .991) 158-0-1, (.994, 1.000) 70-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 60-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 582-3-31, (.945, .995)
85' 296-3-26, (.911, .991) 158-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 71-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 62-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 587-3-26, (.953, .995)
86' 298-3-23, (.920, .991) 158-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 74-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 62-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 592-3-23, (.958, .995)
87' 296-3-22, (.922, .991) 162-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 77-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 61-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 596-3-22, (.960, .995)
88' 301-0-15, (.953, 1.000) 163-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 75-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 65-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 604-0-15, (.976, 1.000)
89' 298-0-14, (.955, 1.000) 167-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 78-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 65-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 608-0-14, (.977, 1.000)
90' 298-0-7, (.977, 1.000) 165-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 82-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 67-0-0, (1.000, 1.000) 612-0-7, (.989, 1.000)

Example: So, for example, look at the row for the 6th minute and the column for a 1-goal lead in the table just above. From it, we can tell that (in the 836 previous FIFA World Cup matches) when teams held a one-goal lead after the 6th minute of the match, they notched 65 regular-match wins, 19 regular-match losses, and 17 regular-match ties for a 65/(65+19+17) = .644 regular-match winning fraction and a (65+17)/(65+19+17) = .812 non-losing (winning or tying) fraction. By "regular-match," we mean all match play (regulation time, injury time, post-regulation extra time for tied matches) prior to any shootout. Thus, some of those regular-match ties may have been broken through shootout penalty kicks, but such tiebreakers are not reflected by our table. Note also that the 46th and 47th minutes have no rows in our table. Results for these minutes were not displayed due to ambiguities caused by goals scored during first-half injury time in the 46th and 47th minutes of the first half.

18 June 2018