Note: This page was written from the 2006 NHL Winter Olympics break through 25 March 2006. To read it in chronological order is to read it from bottom to top.

Epilogue:

It was the case on 23 March that the Blues lost to the Calgary Flames, so even by the conventional custom for "mathematical" elimination were the St. Louis Blues eliminated from the 2005-06 NHL playoffs. So, now that the team with the longest active MLB/NBA/NHL yearly playoff appearance streak has been eliminated, what team assumes the leadership position? The answer: Both the NHL Detroit Red Wings and the MLB Atlanta Braves have taken part in 14 consecutive playoff seasons in their respective sports. In the Wings' case, they have participated in best-of-7 format playoff series in each of those fourteen seasons. As of Saturday 25 March 2006, make it 15 for Detroit, as the Red Wings clinched a 2006 NHL Western Conference playoffs berth with their overtime loss to the Columbus Bluejackets, and with losses by the Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks. After 25 March, Detroit had 103 points, and only seven other NHL Western Conference teams had the ability to capture more than 103 points on the 2005-06 NHL regular season. An eighth team, the Los Angeles Kings, could "win out" for 103 points and win a tiebreaker over Detroit with 49 wins to Detroit's 48 wins after 25 March. But when the principles outlined herein are applied to the 87 Western Conference games left in the 2005-06 season, one finds that a worst-case scenario (in which the Wings win no more games and all Western games excluding the Wings become three-point games) places the Red Wings in no worse than an eighth-place tie with the Edmonton Oilers ... and Detroit wins that tiebreaker through more wins. The Detroit Red Wings thus clinched a 2006 NHL playoffs berth on 25 March 2006, three days after the St. Louis Blues had been eliminated.

Preview to 23 March 2006:

It might conventionally be said that the St. Louis Blues must defeat the Calgary Flames tonight to "stay alive" in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference playoff race. A regulation loss tonight would drop the Blues to a maximum 79 possible points on the season. Entering 23 March action, the Vancouver Canucks are in seventh place in the Western Conference with 80 points, while the Los Angeles Kings are in eighth with 79 points. Seventy-nine points for the 2005-06 Blues would do no more than tie the Kings ... but the Kings would then win the tiebreaker thanks to more victories. Conventionally, it would thus behoove St. Louis to win what is the franchise's 3000th regular-season game tonight against the Flames.

Of course, the point in reality is moot, because the conventional approach to "mathematical elimination" tends not to take into account other teams and their schedules. The Blues in fact were eliminated from the 2005-06 playoff race by the Mighty Ducks' penalty-shot overtime victory over the Colorado Avalanche in Anaheim last night. It was noted in this space yesterday that four Western teams -- the Vancouver Canucks (80 current points), Los Angeles Kings (79), Edmonton Oilers (79), and San Jose Sharks (78) -- are essentially the reason why the Blues are through. Herewith, an elaboration.

As has been noted, these four teams have nine games left among them. These nine games have 4^9 = 262,144 possible outcomes. Take away the overtime-related outcomes -- three-point games would only hurt the Blues anyway -- and that number of outcomes falls to a more manageable 2^9 = 512. Inspect those 512 outcomes, and one finds that the situation best suited to help the Blues occurs when Vancouver tallies 92 points, Los Angeles and Edmonton score 81 points each, and San Jose manages 80 points. In this situation, St. Louis would tie Los Angeles and Edmonton for no better than eighth place in the Western Conference standings, but Los Angeles would win the tiebreaker; thus, the Blues after last night were eliminated.

After 22 March 2006:

The 2005-06 NHL playoff hopes for the St. Louis Blues, however small they might have been, are now nil.

While the Dallas Stars helped the Blues by defeating the Minnesota Wild in regulation, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks surmounted deficits of 3-goals-nil and 4-goals-1 to tie the Colorado Avalanche 4-goals-all and force overtime. Early in the fourth minute of overtime, after Colorado wing Milan Hejduk shot wide at the Anaheim goal from just outside the Ducks' crease, Anaheim defenseman Scott Niedermayer corralled the rebound and chipped a pass ahead to Jonathan Hedstrom on right wing. Avoiding a sweep check by Colorado defenseman Rob Blake at center ice adjacent to the penalty box, Hedstrom broke in alone on the Colorado goal, with Avalanche players Hejduk and center Brett McLean in pursuit. McLean had the favorable angle on Hedstrom, and, as the Duck wing attempted to go from his backhand to his forehand in the faceoff circle to the left of the Colorado goal, upended Hedstrom, sending him sprawling into Colorado goaltender Peter Budaj. Referee Shane Heyer immediately signalled for a penalty shot. With 1:38 left in overtime, and at two minutes till midnight in St. Louis half a continent away, Hedstrom rifled a 23-foot snap shot between Budaj's pads for the Anaheim overtime victory ... and the elimination of the St. Louis Blues from the NHL playoffs for the first time since 1979, and for only the fourth time in their 38-year history (discounting 2004-05) in the NHL.

With the win, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks increase their 2005-06 point total to 82. The most that the St. Louis Blues can hope to capture is 51 + 2*15 = 81. Anaheim thus follows Detroit, Dallas, Nashville, Calgary, and Colorado in clinching a spot in the final 2005-06 NHL Western Conference standings above that of the Blues. After 22 March, the Vancouver Canucks were in seventh place in the Western Conference standings with 80 points, while the Los Angeles Kings were in eighth place with 79 points. One might think that, with 81 points still possible for the Blues, seventh place would still be within reach. Note, however, that the Edmonton Oilers are in ninth place with 79 points, while the San Jose Sharks are tenth with 78. Of the 100 Western Conference games that remain in the 2005-06 season after 22 March, nine (9) are among Vancouver, Los Angeles, Edmonton, and San Jose. If Vancouver fails to win another game, then the Canucks would have to have lost its two remaining games with Edmonton (giving the Oilers at least 83 points), its two remaining games with Los Angeles (giving the Kings at least 83 points), and its two remaining games with San Jose (giving the Sharks at least 82 points). Similar situations unfold with Edmonton, Los Angeles, and San Jose, and the bottom line among these four teams is they (and especially their remaining schedules) leave no room in the 2005-06 NHL playoffs for the St. Louis Blues.

Explaining the 21 March 2006 Scenario:

Based upon the 21 March 2006 NHL Western Conference results (and the resulting standings), the following is the best-case scenario that produced the 81-points-all tie between St. Louis and Edmonton, along with the St. Louis tiebreaker victory to give the Blues eighth place. The three-digit abbreviations for each team are in use, and the "AAA d BBB" format denotes "AAA defeats BBB in regulation."

The important games herein are those involving the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, San Jose Sharks, and Vancouver Canucks. These are the teams that do not yet have 81 points (i.e., the Blues' current maximum possible number of standings points), but can still capture 81 points or more. The Detroit Red Wings, Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, and Colorado Avalanche have already clinched finishes above the Blues in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference standings. The Phoenix Coyotes, Columbus Bluejackets, and Chicago Blackhawks each could win the rest of their 2005-06 games and still not finish with more than 81 points.

The win assignment procedure was thus to 1) assign wins to STL in all of the remaining unassigned STL games, 2) do likewise for DET, DAL, NSH, CGY, and COL, in that order, 3) do likewise for CHI, CBJ, and PHO, in that order, 4) assign wins chronologically to ANA, EDM, LAK, MIN, SJS, and VAN until each of these teams has either 79 or 80 points, 5) assign wins in the remaining unassigned games so as to minimize the standard deviation in final points among ANA, EDM, LAK, MIN, SJS, and VAN, and 6) re-assign standings points among those six teams so as to push as many of them as possible below the 81-point plateau. In this case, VAN and LAK accumulated wins at the expense of ANA, MIN, and SJS, while leaving EDM tied with STL in a tiebreaker situation that STL wins for eighth place in the NHL Western Conference.

March 22: DAL d MIN, COL d ANA; 3/23: DET d SJS, STL d CGY, CHI d PHO, VAN d EDM; 3/24: CGY d CBJ, DAL d CHI, NSH d ANA; 3/25: DET d CBJ, STL d COL, MIN d SJS, PHO d ANA, VAN d EDM, NSH d LAK; 3/26: DAL d CGY, CHI d SJS, COL d EDM; 3/27: STL d DET, VAN d LAK; 3/28: CBJ d SJS, COL d ANA, MIN d EDM, NSH d PHO; 3/29: STL d CHI, DAL d ANA, CGY d LAK, VAN d MIN; 3/30: DET d NSH, LAK d EDM, PHO d SJS; 3/31: DET d CHI, STL d CBJ, CGY d COL, MIN d VAN, DAL d ANA.

April 1: CHI d CBJ, STL d NSH, CGY d EDM, DAL d LAK, PHO d SJS; 4/2: DET d MIN, VAN d ANA; 4/3: NSH d CBJ, DAL d SJS, COL d CHI, DET d CGY, PHO d EDM, VAN d LAK; 4/4: STL d MIN, LAK d ANA; 4/5: NSH d CHI, COL d SJS, CGY d PHO; 4/6: STL d NSH, MIN d EDM, DAL d ANA, LAK d SJS; 4/7: DET d CBJ, CHI d EDM, CGY d MIN; 4/8: STL d COL, LAK d ANA, DET d CBJ, NSH d CHI, CGY d VAN, DAL d PHO; 4/9: STL d EDM, DAL d SJS, COL d MIN; 4/10: VAN d ANA, PHO d SJS

April 11: DET d EDM, STL d NSH, CHI d MIN, DAL d CBJ, COL d PHO, CGY d ANA; 4/12: VAN d SJS; 4/13: STL d CBJ, NSH d MIN, DET d CHI, CGY d COL, EDM d ANA, PHO d LAK, VAN d SJS; 4/15: DAL d MIN, SJS d ANA, CHI d CBJ, STL d DET, NSH d PHO, COL d VAN, CGY d LAK; 4/16: CHI d CBJ, STL d PHO; 4/17: DET d DAL, COL d EDM, CGY d ANA, LAK d SJS; 4/18: DAL d CBJ, DET d NSH, STL d CHI.

After 21 March 2006:

On 21 March in the NHL Western Conference, the Phoenix Coyotes defeated the Columbus Bluejackets, the Minnesota Wild defeated the Calgary Flames, the Nashville Predators defeated the Detroit Red Wings in a shootout, the Vancouver Canucks defeated the Edmonton Oilers ... and the San Jose Sharks defeated the St. Louis Blues. The maximum number of points that the Blues now can capture for the 2005-06 season is 81. The Colorado Avalanche currently have 82 points; thus, Colorado joins the Detroit Red Wings, Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, and Calgary Flames as teams that are guaranteed a finish above St. Louis in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference standings. There are 102 games left in the Western Conference this season.

With Colorado currently fifth in the NHL Western Conference with 82 points, and Vancouver and Anaheim next with 80 points each, one might guess that the Blues (with 81 maximum points still possible) could still finish as high as sixth, between Colorado and Vancouver/Anaheim. But that guess would be incorrect. As it now stands, the best-case scenario for the St. Louis Blues is an eighth-place tie with the Edmonton Oilers at 81 points each. St. Louis and Edmonton would each not only have 81 points but 35 wins - thus sending the tiebreaker to consider head-to-head competition. In that regard, St. Louis would win, six standings points to three, in their four games with Edmonton (which includes an assigned best-case St. Louis victory over Edmonton on 9 April). A final standings presentation that corresponds to this situation is DET(124 points), DAL(119), NSH(108), CGY(106), COL(100), VAN(98), LAK(89), STL/EDM(81), PHO/ANA/SJS(80), MIN(79), CHI(65), CBJ(57).

Thus, barely, the St. Louis Blues' playoff hopes live another day. The Vancouver Canucks truly helped the Blues tonight: Exploring alternative victory scenarios, Jean-Patrice Martel via the Society for International Hockey Research found that an Oiler win (or even an overtime point) would have sufficed for eliminating St. Louis. The Blues' game ended at 10:20pmEST; the Oilers' game ended at 11:36pmEST. It is possible that the Blues could have spent the one hour sixteen minutes after their game watching the Vancouver-Edmonton game, with the knowledge that their nano-thin playoff hopes hinged on the outcome of that latter game. Possible ... but not probable.

After 20 March 2006:

On 20 March, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the Dallas Stars, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Los Angeles Kings, and, most damaging in the context of this effort, the Nashville Predators defeated the St. Louis Blues. It is now the case in 2005-06 that the most points St. Louis can hope to capture is 83 points. Since the Calgary Flames currently (as of 20 March) have 84 points, Calgary joins the Detroit Red Wings, Dallas Stars, and Nashville Predators as teams that currently have more points than the Blues can hope to capture this season. There are now 107 Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 NHL regular season.

For the St. Louis Blues, the best-case scenario would now have them finishing in seventh place, tied in points (83) and wins (36) with the Edmonton Oilers, but winning the head-to-head tiebreaker vs. the Oilers (three wins to one; six standings points to three). Here are the point totals in such a scenario: DET (125 points), DAL(119), CGY(108), NSH(106), VAN(96), ANA(94), STL/EDM(83), COL/SJS(82), LAK/MIN(81), PHO(80), CHI(67), CBJ(59).

Five NHL Western Conference games are slated for 21 March. The most important of these is the San Jose Sharks - St. Louis Blues game, from the perspective of the Blues.

After 19 March 2006:

Regulation decisions ruled on 19 March 2006 in the NHL Western Conference, as the Phoenix Coyotes defeated the Chicago Blackhawks, the Anaheim Might Ducks defeated the Columbus Bluejackets, the Calgary Flames defeated the Minnesota Wild, the San Jose Sharks defeated the Colorado Avalanche, and the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Vancouver Canucks. Now with 84 current points, the Calgary Flames are just one point behind the maximum that the St. Louis Blues can earn in the 2005-06 season (85); Calgary is thus poised to become the fourth team to lock in a finish better than that of St. Louis in the 2005-06 regular season.

After 19 March, it remains the case that the best finish the Blues can manage is sole possession of the sixth-most points in the conference. A final standings presentation corresponding to this situation: DET(125 points), DAL(121), NSH(104), CGY(100), VAN(100), STL(85), ANA/COL/SJS(84), EDM/LAK/MIN(83), PHO(82), CHI(67), CBJ(61). There are now 110 NHL Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 regular season, with three scheduled for 20 March (including one between the Blues and the Nashville Predators).

After 18 March 2006:

On 18 March 2006 in the NHL Western Conference, the Dallas Stars defeated the San Jose Sharks in a shootout, the Nashville Predators defeated the Calgary Flames, the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Edmonton Oilers in a shootout, and, worst of all from the St. Louis perspective, the Los Angeles Kings defeated the St. Louis Blues. The most points that the Blues can now muster in the 2005-06 NHL season is 85. By contrast, the Nashville Predators secured their 88th 2005-06 point with their victory over Calgary. Nashville thus joins Detroit and Dallas in having secured higher finishes than St. Louis in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference final standings. But the bad news for the Blues does not stop there. Entering 18 March, the best possible St. Louis finish was in sole possession of the fourth-most points in the NHL Western Conference. After 18 March, the best that the Blues now can manage is sole possession of the sixth-most points in the conference. A final standings presentation corresponding to this situation: DET(125 points), DAL(121), NSH(104), CGY(102), VAN(96), STL(85), ANA/COL/SJS(84), EDM/LAK/MIN(83), PHO(80), CHI(69), CBJ(63). There are now 115 NHL Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 regular season, with five scheduled for 19 March.

After 17 March 2006:

NHL Western Conference games for 17 March were Vancouver vs. Columbus and Anaheim vs. Chicago. Yesterday's best-case scenario for the St. Louis Blues called for the Columbus Bluejackets to defeat the Vancouver Canucks, and for the Chicago Blackhawks to defeat the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. The opposite occurred. No major surprise, there: It is by no means uncommon for superior teams to vanquish their inferiors. Still, the wins by the west coast teams do not dislodge the Blues from their position of possible sole possession of the fourth-most points in the NHL Western Conference at season's end. A final standings presentation corresponding to this situation: DET(125 points), DAL(121), CGY(104), STL(87), ANA/COL/VAN/EDM/NSH(86), SJS/LAK/MIN(85), PHO(84), CHI(73), CBJ(65).

After 16 March 2006:

Through their victory over the Los Angeles Kings combined with the St. Louis Blues' loss to the San Jose Sharks, the Dallas Stars have ensured a finish in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference standings higher than that of the Blues. Dallas now has 91 points; the best that St. Louis can now attain is 51 + 2(18) = 87 points. In other NHL Western Conference games, the Edmonton Oilers defeated the Calgary Flames in overtime, and the Nashville Predators defeated the Phoenix Coyotes in regulation. There are now 121 NHL Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 regular season. Upon the procedure of assigning wins to STL in all of their remaining games, doing likewise for DET and DAL (now that DAL joins DET in having ensured a finish ahead of STL in the 2005-06 Western standings), assigning wins to the other Western Conference teams (in order of worst to best) to either maximize their points or bring them to 85 or 86 points, and assigning wins in the remaining unassigned games, it happens that the best that the St. Louis Blues can now manage in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference is to finish in sole possession of the fourth-most points among conference teams. A final standings presentation that corresponds to this situation is DET(125 points), DAL(121), CGY(100), STL(87), ANA/COL/VAN/EDM/NSH(86), SJS/LAK/MIN(85), PHO(84), CHI(75), CBJ(67).

And what specifically was the impact of the Blues' loss to San Jose? If the sun had set on St. Patrick's Eve with a regulation win in the Blues' favor, St. Louis still would have had the potential to finish with 89 points, while the San Jose Sharks would have remained at 71 current points in the NHL Western Conference standings. The best possible scenario for St. Louis would have then had the Blues finish still in sole possession of the third-most points in the Western Conference. A corresponding final standings presentation: DET(125 points), DAL(121), STL(89), VAN/ANA/CGY/NSH(88), LAK/MIN(87), COL/EDM(86), SJS(85), PHO(84), CHI(75), CBJ(67). Now what if St. Louis had taken the Sharks to overtime before losing? In that case, the Blues would have had the potential to finish with 88 points, while San Jose would have been at 73 current points. The corresponding best-case scenario for St. Louis would then have been a season-end tie for the third-most Western Conference standings points. A final standings presentation corresponding to such a salvaged-point situation: DET(125 points), DAL(121), STL/VAN/ANA/CGY/NSH(88), LAK/SJS/MIN(87), COL/EDM(86), PHO(84), CHI(75), CBJ(67). While the St. Louis Blues find themselves completely incapable of controlling their own playoff destiny, they remain very much in control of hastening their own demise.

After 15 March 2006:

In NHL Western Conference games, the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, and the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Columbus Bluejackets. Neither of these games had any effect on the Blues' highest possible finish in the NHL Western Conference. There are now 125 NHL Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 regular season.

After 14 March 2006:

In NHL Western Conference games, the Nashville Predators defeated the Vancouver Canucks, the Edmonton Oilers defeated the Minnesota Wild, and the Phoenix Coyotes defeated the San Jose Sharks. It once again remains the case that the best that the Blues can manage is sole possession of the third-most points in the conference. The final standings presentation from yesterday again remains in effect: DET(125 points), DAL(105), STL(89), ANA/COL/EDM/VAN/PHO/NSH(88 each), CGY/MIN/SJS/LAK(87 each), CHI(77), and CBJ(71). There are now 127 NHL Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 regular season.

Note that the recent focus has been on points within the Western Conference. But finishing with sole possession of the third-most points in the NHL Western Conference standings does not necessarily equate to a third-place finish. The top three playoff slots are reserved for the division winners. Thus, since the Detroit Red Wings have clinched a finish higher in the final standings than that of their division rival St. Louis Blues, the Blues are locked out of the top three NHL Western Conference playoff slots. Taking this fact into consideration, Jean-Patrice Martel via the Society for International Hockey Research has found a scenario in which the Blues could win the rest of their games and finish as high as fourth in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference standings: DAL(113 points), DET(113), CGY(113), STL(89), LAK/SJS(85), PHO/VAN/COL/NSH/EDM/ANA(84), MIN(83), CBJ/CHI(79). As the Blues near elimination, however, the distinction between the xth-most final points in the conference standings and an xth-place finish will give way in importance to the tiebreaker.

After 13 March 2006:

In NHL Western Conference games, the Dallas Stars defeated the Vancouver Canucks, the Calgary Flames defeated the Colorado Avalanche, and the San Jose Sharks defeated the Los Angeles Kings. But in the most important game of the night from the perspective of this effort, the St. Louis Blues defeated the Columbus Bluejackets in overtime. It now stands that the Dallas Stars have 89 points for the 2005-06 NHL season, while the best that the Blues can muster is their 51 current points, plus 2 points for all of their 19 remaining games, for a total of 89 points. Dallas has thus ensured no worse than a tie with St. Louis in the NHL Western Conference standings. Will that tie be for the second-most points in the conference? No: It remains the case that the best that the Blues can manage is sole possession of the third-most points in the conference. The final standings presentation from yesterday, save for an additional point for the Columbus Bluejackets, remains in effect: DET(125 points), DAL(105), STL(89), ANA/COL/EDM/VAN/PHO/NSH(88 each), CGY/MIN/SJS/LAK(87 each), CHI(77), and CBJ(71). There are now 130 NHL Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 regular season.

Postscript: The Blues achieved a home-ice victory over Columbus, and thus kept their improbable but possible hopes for sole possession of the third-most 2005-06 NHL Western Conference points alive. Had the Blues lost in regulation, the best they would have been able to manage was sole possession of the fourth-most Western points. A possible scenario for such: DET(125 points), DAL(121), CGY(97), STL(87), COL/VAN/PHO/ANA/EDM(86), LAK/SJS/MIN(85), NSH(84), CHI(75), CBJ(68). An overtime loss for the Blues would have earned them one point in the standings, thus leaving the door open for a tie for the third-most Western Conference points.

After 12 March 2006:

In NHL Western Conference games, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Calgary Flames, the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Chicago Blackhawks, the Minnesota Wild defeated the Edmonton Oilers, and the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the Phoenix Coyotes. As such, it remains the case that the St. Louis Blues remain capable of achieving sole possession of the third-most points in the Western Conference. The final standings presentation from yesterday remains in effect: DET(125 points), DAL(105), STL(89), ANA/COL/EDM/VAN/PHO/NSH(88 each), CGY/MIN/SJS/LAK(87 each), CHI(77), and CBJ(70). There are now 134 NHL Western Conference games remaining in the 2005-06 regular season.

After 11 March 2006:

As it happened, the Blues could muster only one point against the Los Angeles Kings Saturday night via a shootout loss, but the Detroit Red Wings did indeed defeat the Chicago Blackhawks. Thus, Detroit ensures a 2005-06 NHL Western Conference finish ahead of the Blues, but the Blues tie Chicago with 49 current points in the standings. Elsewhere in the conference, the San Jose Sharks defeated the Nashville Predators in overtime, the Columbus Bluejackets defeated the Edmonton Oilers in overtime, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the Phoenix Coyotes, and the Dallas Stars defeated the Vancouver Canucks. The best that St. Louis now can manage is sole possession of the third-most points in the Western Conference [a cross-check on such by Jean-Patrice Martel via the Society for International Hockey Research is gratefully appreciated]. A possible final standings presentation to that effect: DET(125 points), DAL(105), STL(89), ANA/COL/EDM/VAN/PHO/NSH(88 each), CGY/MIN/SJS/LAK(87 each), CHI(77), and CBJ(70).

If St. Louis had won the shootout instead of Los Angeles, then the Blues would still have been able to finish with up to 90 points. A possible final standings presentation to that effect would then have been DET(125), STL/LAK/ANA/EDM/COL(90), CGY/DAL/SJS/MIN(89), NSH/VAN/PHO(88), CHI(77), CBJ(70). That lost point is the difference between a possible multi-way tie for the second-most conference points and a possible sole possession of the third-most conference points. (Not that either of these lofty finishes are very probable for the Blues.)

Preview of 11 March 2006:

Tonight's NHL Western Conference schedule offers the chance for a most bittersweet irony for the St. Louis Blues. While the Blues host the Los Angeles Kings, the Detroit Red Wings host the Chicago Blackhawks. Entering tonight's action, St. Louis has 48 points -- and the potential to finish the 2005-06 NHL regular season with 90 points. Detroit has 89 points -- right now. Thus, a Detroit win over Chicago would give the Red Wings 91 points, thereby clinching (by the most basic measure) a finish ahead of St. Louis for the Wings. The Blues would also be eliminated (by the most basic measure) from a chance to win the 2005-06 NHL Central Division. Nevertheless, a regulation win by Detroit over Chicago would keep the Blackhawks at 49 points. Thus: A regulation win by Detroit, combined with a win by St. Louis over Los Angeles tonight, would vault the Blues over their longtime rival Blackhawks, and out of the NHL Western Conference cellar. Tonight, the Blues could find themselves almost simultaneously 1) locked out of their Division title, but 2) lifted out of their Division (and Conference) cellar.

After 10 March 2006:

A slow night in the NHL Western Conference offered only one game, but in it, the St. Louis Blues managed to preserve the status quo. They defeated the Minnesota Wild, albeit in overtime. It thus remains possible ... not probable, by any means, but possible ... for the Blues to finish second alone in points among Western Conference teams. A possible arrangement of such: DAL(113 points), STL(90), CGY(89), LAK(89), EDM(89), NSH(89), SJS(89), DET(89), MIN(89), COL(88), VAN(88), PHO(88), ANA(88), CHI(85), CBJ(76). One might note that it is virtually identical to yesterday's offering, except that Minnesota moves up to 89 potential points by virtue of tonight's overtime loss.

After 09 March 2006:

Tonight in the NHL Western Conference, the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Los Angeles Kings, the Columbus Bluejackets defeated the Phoenix Coyotes, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Chicago Blackhawks, the Calgary Flames defeated the Dallas Stars, the Nashville Predators defeated the Vancouver Canucks in overtime, and the San Jose Sharks defeated the Edmonton Oilers. It appears that the St. Louis Blues remain capable of finishing in sole possession of the second-most points in the conference. One possible arrangement of the final standings to indicate such: DAL(113 points), STL(90), CGY(89), LAK(89), EDM(89), NSH(89), SJS(89), DET(89), COL(88), VAN(88), PHO(88), ANA(88), MIN(88), CHI(85), CBJ(76). On 10 March, the only Western Conference game will pit the Minnesota Wild vs. the St. Louis Blues.

After 07 March 2006:

After a night off on 06 March (and just in advance of another night off on 08 March), NHL Western Conference action returned with a vengeance on 07 March. Seven conference games were played, and of these seven, four ended in either the five-minute overtime that follows regulation ties or in a shootout. There were thus four three-point games on 07 March from the perspective of the Western Conference standings ... none of which bode particularly well for the St. Louis Blues. In 07 March action, the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Columbus Bluejackets in regulation, the Phoenix Coyotes defeated the Detroit Red Wings in regulation, the Los Angeles Kings defeated the Minnesota Wild in overtime, the Nashville Predators defeated the Calgary Flames in regulation, the Dallas Stars defeated the Edmonton Oilers in a shootout, and the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the San Jose Sharks in overtime. Most importantly from the perspective of this effort, the St. Louis Blues lost to the Colorado Avalanche in a shootout. So, while the Blues earn one point on the night (as did Minnesota, Edmonton, and San Jose), Colorado earns two (as did the other 07 March victors in the West).

A first-place NHL Western Conference finish no longer seems possible for the Blues. Give the Blues every point that they can earn from now through the end of the 2005-06 season, and they finish with 90 points. Applying the procedure described earlier yields a possible finish of ANA (98 or 96 points), SJS (93 or 95 points), STL(90), COL(90), PHO(90), MIN(90), DAL(89), DET(89), CGY(89), EDM(89), LAK(89), VAN(89), NSH(89), CHI(87), and CBJ(76). But Jean-Patrice Martel via SIHR notes that Dallas is positioned to help the Blues in this matter, by winning its multiple games against Anaheim and San Jose to seize first (thereby dropping the Ducks and Sharks below 90 points), by defeating Phoenix and Minnesota (to drop the Coyotes and Wild below 90), and by defeating Calgary ... which in turn can defeat Colorado to drop the Avalanche below 90 points. The better possible finish becomes DAL(109), STL(90), SJS/CGY/DET/EDM/LAK/VAN/NSH(89), ANA/COL/PHO/MIN(88), CHI(87), CBJ(76). Thus, no President's Trophy this season for the Blues.

After 05 March 2006:

Keeping alive their ever-so-slim hopes of finishing the 2005-06 NHL regular season with 90+ points, the St. Louis Blues defeated the Vancouver Canucks, thereby ensuring that their maximum possible point total this season stays (for now) at 91. Elsewhere in the NHL Western Conference, the Edmonton Oilers defeated the Nashville Predators in overtime, the Columbus Bluejackets defeated the Anaheim Might Ducks in a shootout, the Dallas Stars defeated the Chicago Blackhawks, and the Minnesota Wild defeated the Colorado Avalanche. Applying the procedure described yesterday yields a possible finish of STL(91 final points), NSH(91), LAK(91), DET(91), COL(90), PHO(90), EDM(90), SJS(90), ANA(90), VAN(89), CGY(89), DAL(89), MIN(89), CHI(87), CBJ(76) -- a four-way tie for most NHL Western Conference points. Note that this train-wreck of a finish is not unique: A similar approach forwarded from Jean-Patrice Martel via SIHR has STL, VAN, CGY, and NSH tied atop the NHL Western Conference Standings with 91 points each.

No NHL Western Conference games are slated for 06 March 2006.

After 04 March 2006:

In the NHL Western Conference, the Los Angeles Kings defeated the Columbus Bluejackets, the Dallas Stars defeated the Colorado Avalanche, the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Phoenix Coyotes, and the Calgary Flames defeated the San Jose Sharks, all in regulation. One must note that the Red Wings have now accumulated 87 points, while the most that the Blues can earn this season is 91. To this point, the equivalent of a probabilistic approach has been taken to determine the state of the St. Louis Blues in the 2006 Western Conference playoff run. Thanks to some very valuable input from Jean-Patrice Martel via the Society for International Hockey Research (SIHR), it has become evident that a deterministic approach is better suited to this task.

The deterministic approach first looks at the number of NHL Western Conference games left in 2006. Double that number is the "points to let" -- i.e., the number of standings points left in the 2005-06 season for teams in the conference to earn. Since the best-case scenario is sought for the St. Louis Blues, it is assumed that these remaining games all end in regulation and are thus "worth" only two standings points. (Games reaching overtime and thus resulting in three standings points are an obvious impediment to the Blues.) In the best-case scenario, the Blues are assumed to win the rest of their games. Once that assumption is fulfilled, the new team at the bottom of the conference is then assumed to win either a) the rest of its games, or b) the number of its games that place it only one or two standings points behind the Blues. This process is repeated until outcomes have been assigned to the games of each team. A certain number of games will go unassigned through this first pass; these games will subsequently undergo outcome assignments so as to position the Blues as well as possible.

Here are the results of this deterministic approach, from the Olympics break through the latest game outcomes:

Whereas the probabilistic approach had difficulty finding possible (albeit however improbable) first-place finishes for the St. Louis Blues in the 2006 NHL Western Conference, the deterministic approach succeeds at doing so. Whereas the probabilistic approach hinted that the difference between final standings points was shrinking, the deterministic approach uses such shrinkage as an operating principle. As ever, note that the above (as with the ones below) are possible final point totals.

After 03 March 2006:

The Vancouver Canucks defeated the Chicago Blackhawks in a shootout, meaning that Vancouver gained two points on the Blues, while Chicago gained one point on the Blues. In regulation decisions, the Edmonton Oilers defeated the San Jose Sharks and the Anaheim Mighty Ducks defeated the Minnesota Wild. A search of a different neighborhood of the n-dimensional solution space unveils the following possible final NHL Western Conference standings:

"Winning out" by the Blues could lead them to the second-place finish in the Western Conference depicted above. At first blush, that possible outcome might make the Blues' current last-place position in the conference seem less serious than it actually is. But note how this second-place finish is farther from the first-place finish (eight points) than it is from the fourteenth (six points). Note also that were the Blues to finish their 2005-06 season 22-1-1 (instead of the best-case 24-0-0), they would slip from second place into a tie for eleventh place in the scenario depicted above. Quite the fall for just three lost points out of a possible 48.

After 02 March 2006:

A rougher night for the Blues' fate was this night than previous nights since NHL play resumed. In the NHL Western Conference, the Nashville Predators defeated the Vancouver Canucks, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Columbus Bluejackets, the Phoenix Coyotes defeated the Dallas Stars, the Los Angeles Kings defeated the Minnesota Wild, and, most importantly in this context, the St. Louis Blues lost to the Calgary Flames. All decisions were regulation decisions; thus, there were no "three-point" games. It happens that there remains at least one scenario in which the Blues can still finish third-highest in Western Conference points. Here it is:

The Blues do not play on 03 March 2006. Three NHL Western Conference games will be played tonight, and, irrespective of winners and losers, the fact is that all six teams are ahead of St. Louis in the conference standings. No good can come out of tonight for the Blues. From the St. Louis perspective, it would be as good as it gets were all three games decided in regulation. The Blues next play on 05 March.

After 01 March 2006:

For the second consecutive night, every NHL Western Conference game ended in regulation and in accordance with the pro-Blues weight order defined as of the 2006 Winter Olympics, as the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Nashville Predators, the Blues defeated the Edmonton Oilers, and the Detroit Red Wings defeated the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. Of the 463,680 permutations of the NHL Western Conference weighting order that are under regular consideration, four (4) allow for the Blues to finish third-highest in points. In each of these four cases, the fourth through sixth teams each finish with 92 points (just behind the Blues' 93), while the eighth-place team has no fewer than 89 points. Here is one of those four end-of-2006 NHL Western Conference standings outcomes:

This finish differs only slightly from that from the Olympics break. And even in this ideal (for the Blues) scenario, note how the Blues' point total of 93 is closer to that of the 12th-place Dallas Stars (85 points) than to that of the second-place Colorado Avalanche (102 points).

After 28 February 2006:

In NHL Western Conference games tonight, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Minnesota Wild, the Vancouver Canucks defeated the Calgary Flames, and the San Jose Sharks defeated the Detroit Red Wings. All three games ended in regulation; thus, none of the losing teams salvaged a point in the standings. From the St. Louis Blues' perilous perspective, tonight was a perfect night by way of the Olympics break scenario, as each team with the higher weight order emerged victorious. For at least one more night, then, the possibility of the Blues' finishing as high as third in the NHL Western Conference remains intact.

As of the 2006 Winter Olympics break:

Consider this "weight order" ranking (see below) among NHL Western Conference teams: Blues > Canucks > Bluejackets > Blackhawks > Avalanche > Coyotes > Sharks > Predators > Oilers > Kings > Flames > Red Wings > Wild > Mighty Ducks > Stars. This ranking means that any team in the Conference would, over the remaining 181 Conference games, defeat in regulation any team that appears after it in this ranking, and lose in regulation to any team that appears before it in this ranking. Given this ranking, it remains as of the Olympics break possible for the St. Louis Blues to finish as high as third in the 2005-06 NHL Western Conference standings. Those standings, in terms of points, would appear as follows:

Background for this task:

This website made its debut on Easter Sunday 04 April 1999, with the announcement that the NHL St. Louis Blues had in fact already clinched their twentieth consecutive NHL playoff berth (this when the prevailing view held that the St. Louis team was still prone to elimination from the 1999 NHL playoffs).

Seven years later, during the 2006 Winter Olympics break and as of this writing, the Blues find themselves in last place in the NHL Western Conference. In all probability, the 2006 St. Louis Blues will miss a best-of-7 NHL playoff round for the first time since 1985, and will miss the NHL playoffs for the first time since 1979 (thus ending the longest active MLB/NBA/NHL string of consecutive playoff appearances). Their 2006 elimination will mark only the fourth time in the Blues' 38 NHL seasons that they will miss the playoffs.

Having at least one best-of-7 playoff round appearance in each year that the NHL has operated since 1991, the NHL Detroit Red Wings will take over as active streak leader from the Blues.

Still, as of the 2006 Winter Olympics break, a 2006 playoff berth is mathematically possible for the Blues. But it will not be for long. When the Blues are actually, mathematically eliminated from the 2006 NHL playoff hunt, this page will strive to be first to announce the elimination.

Why such mealy-mouthed language as "strive to be first"? During the 2006 Winter Olympics break in the NHL schedule, there were 181 NHL Western Conference games left in the 2005-06 NHL regular season. Each NHL regular-season game these days has four possible outcomes from the perspective of the standings: home team wins in regulation; home team wins in overtime; road team wins in overtime; road team wins in regulation. Thus, beginning with the first games after the Olympics break, there are 4^181 possible paths from the Olympics break to the end of the 2005-06 regular season. A rigorous examination of all of these paths is slightly less than feasible, to understate matters.

As an alternative, one could consider the number of games left for each team in the NHL Western Conference, and explore the resulting 15-dimensional solution space for situations in which particular teams do and do not make the 2006 NHL playoffs. How big is that solution space? Consider that each NHL Western Conference team represents a dimension in that space, and each dimension is 2*GL+1 points in size (where GL = games left in the 2006 regular season). As of the 2006 Olympics break, the San Jose Sharks and St. Louis Blues have 26 games left each, the Detroit Red Wings, Calgary Flames, Anaheim Mighty Ducks, and Chicago Blackhawks have 25 games left each, the Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, Edmonton Oilers, and Columbus Bluejackets have 24 games left each, the Vancouver Canucks, Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, and Phoenix Coyotes have 23 games left each, and the Los Angeles Kings have 22 games left (and note that (2*26 + 4*25 + 4*24 +4*23 + 22)/2 = 181 games left in the NHL Western Conference).

Thus: the teams with GL = 26 can tally anywhere from 0 to 52 more points (53 possible point totals); the teams with GL = 25, anywhere from 0 to 50 more points (51 possible totals); GL = 24, 0 to 48 more (49 possible); GL = 23, 0 to 46 (47); GL = 22, 0 to 44 (45). The resulting solution space is thus 53^2 * 51^4 * 49^4 * 47^4 * 45^1, or twenty-four septillion (24 * 10^24) points^15. Orders of magnitude smaller than 4^181, as it were, but still large enough to demand over several hundred trillion millennia of calculation time if the contents of each of these 24 septillion cells were assessed at the rate of one per second. In the wake of numbers as large as these, a bit of looseness in the language is likely apropos.

In the wake of such dauntingly large numbers, an approach that is often contemplated is to assume that the team of interest (i.e., the Blues) wins all of its remaining games, while the rival teams lose all of their remaining games. At the Olympic break, the Blues had 41 points, while the Conference-leading Red Wings had 83 points. So, if the Blues were to "win out" for 41 + 26*2 = 93 points, and if the Red Wings were to "lose out" for 83 points, would the Blues not capture the conference lead (to say nothing of a playoff berth)? The answer is no; the reason is that those 25 would-be Red Wing losses would have to produce 25 wins for other Western Conference teams also ahead of the last-place Blues ... to the detriment of the Blues. The calculations are thus more complicated.

A safe but overly conservative approach, and one that the North American sports media seem to have traditionally followed, is to compare the points and GL of a weak team with the points of the current eighth-place team (in this 2006 Western Conference case, the Edmonton Oilers with their 68 points at the Olympics break), and declare the weak team eliminated if PTS(weakteam) + 2*GL(weakteam) < PTS(8thPlacer).

With 41 points at the Olympics break and 26 GL, the Blues could finish with as many as 93 points, which far exceed the 68 that eighth-place Edmonton now has. Thus, the media would consider the Blues "still alive." For now, they are. Again, however, if Edmonton falters, six teams in the standings now between the Oilers and the Blues might very well still lock a lossless Blues team out of the 2006 playoffs through their own collective vying for playoff berths. The media seem implicitly to acknowledge such a viable occurrence, but hard numbers have never seemed to be set to such an occurrence. This page shall strive to set such numbers to such an occurrence or the like.

The approach that has been followed, then, is to 1) assume that the Blues win all 26 of their remaining 2006 NHL regular-season games, for 41 + 2*26 = 93 points, 2) assume that all other Western Conference games end in regulation, so that no "three-point games" hurt the Blues in the standings, 3) assign a "weighting order" to the fifteen conference teams, such that, between any two teams, the game victory is assumed to go to that with the higher win order (the Blues receive the highest weight, 15, because their elimination will occur when even winning every remaining game will not -- cannot -- lead to a finish above ninth place), 4) consider 7! = 5040 permutations of that weighting order (far less than the 15! possible, granted, but enough for a start), 5) swap weights 1 and 2 in those 5040 permutations to generate the second 5040, 6) repeat the previous step for weight pairs 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, ..., 1-13, 1-14, 2-3, 2-4, ..., 2-14, 3-4, 3-5, ..., 3-14, 4-5, ..., 12-13, 12-14, and 13-14, thereby creating a total of 463,680 permutations of that NHL Western Conference weighting order, 7) examine all 463,680 for those which place the Blues' final 2006 point total among the top eight teams in the NHL Western Conference 2005-06 final standings, and 8) tweak individual game outcomes if the preceding step fails to reveal a weighting order permutation that lands the Blues among the top eight teams. When these eight steps are taken and no permutation can be found to place the Blues among the top eight teams in the NHL Western Conference, St. Louis can be pronounced eliminated from the NHL playoffs ... for the first time since 1979.