To "sweep" or to "eke": That is the question.

Best-of-7 series 836 pits the Colorado Avalanche against the St. Louis Blues in the 2001 NHL Semis round (formally labeled by the NHL as the 2001 "Western Conference Finals"). By our count, series 836 marks the seventeenth best-of-7 NHL, NBA, or MLB series in which a team that won its previous series 4-games-3 (i.e., a team that "eked out" a series win in seven games) faces a team that won its previous series 4-games-nil (i.e., a team that "swept" a series in four straight games). Colorado won series 833 by the 4-games-3 margin; St. Louis won series 834 by the 4-games-nil margin. The question: When a team that swept its previous best-of-7 series faces a team that eked out a seven-game win in its previous best-of-7 series, which team historically holds the advantage in this forthcoming series?

The advantage for the team that "sweeps" is time to rest and -- for the injured players -- time to recuperate; the disadvantage is that such a team could lose its timing and momentum during this maximized period between series. Conversely, the advantage for the team that "ekes out" its series win is heightened timing and momentum, since it enjoys only the minimal rest period between series; correspondingly, the disadvantage is minimal time for rest and recuperation.

NHL Semifinals

Since series 836 is a best-of-7 NHL Semis series, let us first look at best-of-7 NHL Semis round series in which the combatants swept and eked out (respectively) best-of-7 NHL Qtrs round series victories. Since the NHL Qtrs round began as a best-of-7 format in 1968, the time span of relevance is 1968-2000. There are five such best-of-7 NHL Semis series:

In 1969, the St. Louis Blues (which had swept their NHL Qtrs series) faced the Los Angeles Kings (which had eked out a win in their NHL Qtrs series): St. Louis swept Los Angeles, 4-games-nil.

In 1975, the Philadelphia Flyers (NHL Qtrs sweep) faced the New York Islanders (NHL Qtrs eke -- though in a comeback from a 3-games-nil deficit): Philadelphia eked out a win over New York, 4-games-3 (Philadelphia had led the series 3-games-nil).

In 1987, the Edmonton Oilers (NHL Qtrs sweep) faced the Detroit Red Wings (NHL Qtrs eke): Edmonton defeated Detroit, 4-games-1.

In 1990, the Edmonton Oilers (NHL Qtrs sweep) faced the Chicago Blackhawks (NHL Qtrs eke): Edmonton defeated Chicago, 4-games-2.

In 1993, the Montreal Canadiens (NHL Qtrs sweep) faced the New York Islanders (NHL Qtrs eke): Montreal defeated New York, 4-games-1.

Thus, in best-of-7 NHL Semis series from 1968 through 2000, the series record of the team that previously swept was 5-0 vs. the team that previously eked out a series win.

NHL Quarterfinals

Let us now consider best-of-7 NHL non-Semis round play. Since best-of-7 NHL Prelim round play began in 1987, let us look at best-of-7 NHL Qtrs series from 1987 through 2000. There are three best-of-7 NHL Qtrs series that are relevant in this context:

In 1993, the Toronto Maple Leafs (which had eked out a win in their NHL Prelim series) faced the St. Louis Blues (which had swept their NHL Prelim series): Toronto eked out a win over St. Louis, 4-games-3.

In 1994, the Vancouver Canucks (NHL Prelim eke) faced the Dallas Stars (NHL Prelim sweep): Vancouver defeated Dallas, 4-games-2.

In 1999, the Dallas Stars (NHL Prelim sweep) faced the St. Louis Blues (NHL Prelim eke): Dallas defeated St. Louis, 4-games-2.

Thus, in best-of-7 NHL Qtrs play from 1987 through 2000, the series record of the team that previously swept was 1-2 vs. the team that previously eked out a series win.

NHL Finals

Since two annual series of NHL Semis round play began in 1943 (there was but one such series each year from 1939 through 1942), let us look at best-of-7 NHL Finals series from 1943 through 2000. There is but one best-of-7 NHL Finals series that is relevant in this context:

In 1952, the Detroit Red Wings (which had swept their NHL Semis series) faced the Montreal Canadiens (which had eked out a win in their NHL Semis series): Detroit swept Montreal, 4-games-nil.

Thus, in best-of-7 NHL Finals play from 1943 through 2000, the series record of the team that previously swept was 1-0 vs. the team that previously eked out a series win. For best-of-7 NHL Finals, Semis, and Qtrs rounds during the applicable years, then, the series record of the team that previously swept was 7-2 vs. the team that previously eked out a series win. Of the seven successful sweeping teams, six won the Stanley Cup in the year of their accomplishment (Detroit in 1952 by definition, Philadelphia in 1975, Edmonton in 1987 and in 1990, Montreal in 1993, Dallas in 1999).

Major League Baseball

What about MLB and the NBA? Best-of-7 MLB Semis play began in 1985, so we can only look at MLB Finals series from 1985 through 2000. There is but one best-of-7 MLB Finals series that is relevant in this context:

In 1988, the Los Angeles Dodgers (which had eked out a win in their MLB Semis series) faced the Oakland Athletics (which had swept their MLB Semis series): the Dodgers defeated Oakland, 4-games-1.

NBA Semifinals

Best-of-7 NBA Qtrs play began in 1968, so we shall look at NBA Semis series from 1968 through 2000. There is but one best-of-7 NBA Semis series that is relevant in this context:

In 1981, the Boston Celtics (which had swept their NBA Qtrs series) faced the Philadelphia 76ers (which had eked out a win in their NBA Qtrs series): Boston eked out a win over Philadelphia, 4-games-3 (and proceeded to win the 1981 NBA championship).

NBA Finals

Since two annual series of NBA Semis round play began in 1958 (there was but one such series each year in 1947 and 1948, and none from 1949 through 1957), let us look at best-of-7 NBA Finals series from 1958 through 2000. There are five best-of-7 NBA Finals series that are relevant in this context:

In 1968, the Boston Celtics (which had eked out a win in their NBA Semis series) faced the Los Angeles Lakers (which had swept their NBA Semis series): Boston defeated the Lakers, 4-games-2.

In 1982, the Los Angeles Lakers (NBA Semis sweep) faced the Philadelphia 76ers (NBA Semis eke): Los Angeles defeated Philadelphia, 4-games-2.

In 1987, the Los Angeles Lakers (NBA Semis sweep) faced the Boston Celtics (NBA Semis eke): Los Angeles defeated Boston, 4-games-2.

In 1996, the Chicago Bulls (NBA Semis sweep) faced the Seattle Supersonics (NBA Semis eke): Chicago defeated Seattle, 4-games-2.

In 1998, the Chicago Bulls (NBA Semis eke) faced the Utah Jazz (NBA Semis sweep): Chicago defeated Utah, 4-games-2.

Thus, for best-of-7 NBA Finals and Semis rounds during the applicable years, the series record of the team that previously swept was 4-2 vs. the team that previously eked out a series win.

Overall ...

Sixteen series are far too few to allow for statistically significant statements. In those sixteen best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series pitting a "sweeper" vs. an "eker," the series record of the team sweeping the previous best-of-7 series was 11-5. Time will tell if this wins:losses ratio of roughly 2:1 in favor of the "sweeper" continues. A legitimate argument for considering the home ice/court/field advantage in the sweeper-vs.-eker series could be made, but right now, the small sample size of sweeper-vs.-eker series would undermine the results of such consideration. There simply are too few of these series at the moment to allow for a statistically significant analysis.

12 May 2001

Epilogue

Colorado defeated St. Louis in five games to win series 836, thus giving "eke" another series victory vs. "sweep".

05 June 2001