WhoWins(tm) Best-of-7

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES AND TEAM PERFORMANCE RECORDS FOR BEST-OF-7 FORMAT MLB, NBA, AND NHL PLAYOFF SERIES

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BEST-OF-7 SERIES RESULTS
The master list: Winner and loser of each and every best-of-7 MLB, NBA, and NHL playoff series from 1905 (the year of the first best-of-7 series).

BEST-OF-7 HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES
SERIES STATUS IN GAMES
leading, 1-game-nil
leading, 2-games-nil
leading, 3-games-nil
leading, 2-games-1
leading, 3-games-1
leading, 3-games-2

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 GREATEST COMEBACK EVER
Surmounting the 3-games-nil deficit.

WhoWins™ BEST-OF-7 ANNIHILATIONS
The ultimate ignominy: Sweeps during which the swept team never, ever leads.

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SERIES OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
FINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
SEMIFINALS
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
Irrespective of Game 1 site
Game 1 played at home
Game 1 played on road

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE GAME OUTCOMES
ALL ROUNDS
All | Home Games | Road Games
FINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
SEMIFINALS
All | Home Games | Road Games
QUARTERFINALS (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games
PRELIMINARIES (NBA, NHL)
All | Home Games | Road Games

BEST-OF-7 FRANCHISE SCORING OUTCOMES
MLB: all runs for/against
NBA: all points for/against
NHL: all goals for/against

BEST-OF-7 SCORING RECORDS
BEST-OF-7 MLB, NBA, NHL Series and Game Scoring Records

RESOURCES
Societies, books, and other resources.

BEST-OF-7 FEATURES
Articles on best-of-7 series phenomena.

FAQ
Frequently-asked questions.

SEARCH RESULTS
Related search terms from popular search engines.

PROBABILITY FORMULAE
Mathematical formulae for best-of-7 probability computations.

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HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL)

Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2024.

sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec.
all all all 852-731 (.538) 1115-468 (.704)
all all H 670-371 (.644) 815-226 (.783)
all all V 182-360 (.336) 300-242 (.554)
all Finals all 147-132 (.527) 195-84 (.699)
all Finals H 117-75 (.609) 147-45 (.766)
all Finals V 30-57 (.345) 48-39 (.552)
all Semis all 207-173 (.545) 271-109 (.713)
all Semis H 154-89 (.634) 184-59 (.757)
all Semis V 53-84 (.387) 87-50 (.635)
all Qtrs all 247-205 (.546) 324-128 (.717)
all Qtrs H 200-109 (.647) 246-63 (.796)
all Qtrs V 47-96 (.329) 78-65 (.545)
all Prelim all 251-221 (.532) 325-147 (.689)
all Prelim H 199-98 (.670) 238-59 (.801)
all Prelim V 52-123 (.297) 87-88 (.497)
MLB all all 93-101 (.479) 126-68 (.649)
MLB all H 63-50 (.558) 78-35 (.690)
MLB all V 30-51 (.370) 48-33 (.593)
MLB Finals all 55-61 (.474) 75-41 (.647)
MLB Finals H 40-30 (.571) 48-22 (.686)
MLB Finals V 15-31 (.326) 27-19 (.587)
MLB Semis all 38-40 (.487) 51-27 (.654)
MLB Semis H 23-20 (.535) 30-13 (.698)
MLB Semis V 15-20 (.429) 21-14 (.600)
NBA all all 351-267 (.568) 465-153 (.752)
NBA all H 308-137 (.692) 375-70 (.843)
NBA all V 43-130 (.249) 90-83 (.520)
NBA Finals all 37-41 (.474) 55-23 (.705)
NBA Finals H 34-26 (.567) 47-13 (.783)
NBA Finals V 3-15 (.167) 8-10 (.444)
NBA Semis all 82-54 (.603) 107-29 (.787)
NBA Semis H 65-29 (.691) 77-17 (.819)
NBA Semis V 17-25 (.405) 30-12 (.714)
NBA Qtrs all 124-104 (.544) 171-57 (.750)
NBA Qtrs H 110-55 (.667) 140-25 (.848)
NBA Qtrs V 14-49 (.222) 31-32 (.492)
NBA Prelim all 108-68 (.614) 132-44 (.750)
NBA Prelim H 99-27 (.786) 111-15 (.881)
NBA Prelim V 9-41 (.180) 21-29 (.420)
NHL all all 408-363 (.529) 524-247 (.680)
NHL all H 299-184 (.619) 362-121 (.749)
NHL all V 109-179 (.378) 162-126 (.563)
NHL Finals all 55-30 (.647) 65-20 (.765)
NHL Finals H 43-19 (.694) 52-10 (.839)
NHL Finals V 12-11 (.522) 13-10 (.565)
NHL Semis all 87-79 (.524) 113-53 (.681)
NHL Semis H 66-40 (.623) 77-29 (.726)
NHL Semis V 21-39 (.350) 36-24 (.600)
NHL Qtrs all 123-101 (.549) 153-71 (.683)
NHL Qtrs H 90-54 (.625) 106-38 (.736)
NHL Qtrs V 33-47 (.413) 47-33 (.588)
NHL Prelim all 143-153 (.483) 193-103 (.652)
NHL Prelim H 100-71 (.585) 127-44 (.743)
NHL Prelim V 43-82 (.344) 66-59 (.528)